Key Points:
- This report provides several historical bear market examples and their depth/time, number of follow-through days, and a handful of stock leaders that emerged once the market bottomed.
- The current 30%+ drop from highs to lows has only been rivaled in its velocity a couple of times, in 1929 and 1987.
- If we have established lows on indices, this would be the shortest bear market ever, at just five weeks (1929: 10 weeks, 1987: eight weeks).
- We see additional time and a retest of lows as much more likely given a now sharply slowing economy.
- We have yet to have a follow-through day since February highs, and we note that in only one case (1987) did the market hold its lows after just one follow-through day. The 1929 market had two failed follow-through days before a successful third.
- However, we will keep an open mind, and should we get a follow-through day soon, we will be looking for select RS leaders to buy.
- These currently include AAPL, ADBE, AMED, AMZN, ATVI, BABA, BIO, CIEN, COUP, CWT, DOCU, DPZ, FIVN, GSX, JD, MRCY, MSFT, MTD, NEM, NFLX, NOW, NTES, PDD, VEEV, VIPS, VRTX, WDFC, ZM.
