Key points from this report:
- Next catalyst: Q2 FY22 results expected on August 25. Investor day event on September 1.
- The stock is breaking out of a 28-week consolidation; add to positions here (pivot: $321). Support is at the 10-DMA.
- Improving environment, management expects revenue acceleration going forward. On Q1 earnings call, the company commented that Autodesk is through the revenue growth trough and expects acceleration going forward. Recent positive read-through from peer Dassault Systemes’ Q2 results (company reported a beat-and-raise Q2) affirms a strong demand environment.
- Strong key metrics: Remaining Performance Obligation (RPO) and billings underpin consistent performance. In Q1 FY22, total RPO increased 22% y/y to $4.2B and billings increased 10% y/y to $974M.
- Market leader in a larger TAM. Autodesk has a 35% global share in the BIM-based AEC industry. The company’s TAM will expand to $69B by 2025, a five-year CAGR of 7%. Autodesk has penetrated only 5% of this TAM but continues to grow much faster than the market; in FY21, revenue grew 16% y/y to $3.8B. Management is targeting a 16-18% revenue CAGR in FY20-23.