The U.S. market is in a Rally Attempt. The S&P 500 advanced 1.1% on higher d/d volume, while the Nasdaq advanced 1.4% on lower
d/d volume as the Fed kept interest rates unchanged and signaled possible cuts later this year. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have resistance
at their 200-DMA (5,746; 18,430). Indices are open for a follow-through day (+1.7% on higher d/d volume) to upgrade the market to a
Confirmed Uptrend.
Author: Deepashree MC
Won Global View
The U.S. market is in a Rally Attempt. The S&P 500 pulled back 1.1% on lower d/d volume, while the Nasdaq declined 1.7% on higher
d/d volume. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have support at their recent lows (5,505; 17,238).
Won Europe Today
Ishares DJ Stoxx600 (EXSA.DE)
Yesterday,
European markets closed higher as Germany approved a major financial reform package, easing borrowing limits
to fund €500B in defense and infrastructure projects. The move lifted investor confidence. Focus remained on a
crucial U.S.-Russia call, where efforts were underway to persuade Moscow to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine. The
outcome could have significant economic and geopolitical implications.
Among key movers on the Stoxx 600, shares of Computacenter (CCC.GB; CCC:LN) surged ~11% as the tech
services firm expressed confidence in strong growth in 2025, backed by a solid order backlog.
The Stoxx 600 recorded its third consecutive session of gains, closing 0.6% higher. The index reclaimed its 21-
DMA. We recommend a selective approach to adding names on a high-volume breakout or decisive retake of their
key moving averages.
Overall sector performance was positive. Banks (+214bps), Oil & Gas (+85bps), and Automobiles & Parts
(+84bps) were the top gainers, while Travel & Leisure (-13bps) and Food & Beverages (-10bps) were the sole
decliners.
Among major indices, France’s CAC 40 gained for the third consecutive session and closed 0.5% higher,
reclaiming its 21-DMA. It is above all its key moving averages, with next resistance at its February 18 high (+1%).
Germany’s DAX 30 extended its positive momentum and surged 1%, with immediate resistance at its all-time high.
The U.K.’s FTSE 100 rose 0.3% and reclaimed its 21-DMA. Next resistance is at its all-time high (+1.8%).
All the 16 markets we track closed in the green. Seven indices are in a Confirmed Uptrend, six in an Uptrend Under
Pressure, and three in a Rally Attempt.
Finland, Italy, and Belgium were shifted to a Confirmed Uptrend from an Uptrend Under Pressure after the indices
reclaimed their previous rally highs.
Of the 21 European Focus List names, 19 ideas are trading above their 200-DMA, while 10 ideas are trading above
their 50-DMA.
Actionable names in the Focus List include Games Workshop (GAW.GB; GAW:LN).
Won Europe Today
We released our European Weekly Summary yesterday. Click here to access the full report. Key points from it include:
- Most European indices rebounded late last week, partially recovering losses. Italy hit a record high, while Germany, the U.K., Portugal, and others remained 1–3% below their 52-week highs, holding above key moving averages. France, Spain, and the Netherlands faced resistance at the 21-DMA, while Denmark hit a new 52-week low after a sharp pullback.
- Energy (+2.4%) and Utility (+2.0%) were the only gainers, while Retail (-5.3%) and Health Care (-3.4%) led decline. Consumer Cyclical, Transportation, and Technology fell ~2%.
- On the rotation chart, defensive sectors like Utility and Consumer Staple continued to gain momentum. Aerospace and Defense stocks boosted Capital Equipment, keeping the sector in the strongest quadrant.
Won Global View
The U.S. market is in a Rally Attempt. The S&P 500 rose 64bps on higher d/d volume, while the Nasdaq rose 31bps on lower d/d
volume. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have resistance at their 200-DMA (5,742; 18,422). The Nasdaq is open for a follow-through day (FTD),
while the S&P will be open for a FTD, if the low (5,505) is held, as early as Wednesday.
U.S. Economic Summary
Q4 GDP in line with estimates: Per the second estimate, the U.S. economy grew 2.3% y/y in Q4 in line with estimates and lower than a 3.1% y/y growth in Q3. Personal spending grew 4.2% y/y, the most since Q1 2023, driven by a 6.1% y/y rise in spending for goods and a 3.3% y/y spending on services. Government
consumption rose around 2.9% y/y, higher than a 2.5% y/y rise in Q3. Fixed investments along with imports and exports contracted during the period, while residential fixed investment recorded a growth of 5.4% y/y, higher than initial expectations
Won Europe Today
On Friday,
- European stock markets surged following reports that Germany’s political leaders reached a major agreement on an increase in state borrowing. The deal, backed by Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz and the Greens, aims to boost defense and infrastructure spending, fueling optimism about long-term economic growth. However, analysts cautioned that the rapid market rally and German bond selloff may slow down as investors weigh the challenges ahead.
- Among key movers on the Stoxx 600, shares of Kering (KER.FR; KER:FP) fell ~11% following the appointment of Demna Gvasalia as Gucci’s new artistic director. Meanwhile, shares of BMW (BMW.DE; BMW:GR) declined 0.7% after the company reported a 37% y/y profit decline in 2024 due to weaker demand from China.
- The Stoxx 600 closed 1.1% higher. It was bouncing off its 50-DMA, with immediate resistance at its short-term moving averages. We recommend a selective approach to adding names on a high-volume breakout or decisive retake of their key moving averages.
- Overall, sector performance was positive. Banks (+224bps), Basic Resources (+188bps), Technology (+180bps), and Financial Services (+157bps) were the top gainers.
- Among major indices, France’s CAC 40 closed 1.1% higher. It was bouncing off its 50-DMA, with immediate resistance at its short-term moving averages. Germany’s DAX 30 gained 1.9% and reclaimed its short-term moving averages. It was trading above all its key moving averages, with next resistance at its all-time high (+1.8%). The U.K.’s FTSE 100 surged 1.1% and retook its 50-DMA. Immediate resistance is at its short-term moving averages.
- All 16 markets we track closed in the green. Three indices are in a Confirmed Uptrend, 10 in an Uptrend Under Pressure, two in a Rally Attempt, and one in a Downtrend.
- The U.K. and the Netherlands were shifted to a Rally Attempt from a Downtrend. The average distribution day count stood at 4.25.
- Of the 21 European Focus List names, 20 ideas are trading above their 200-DMA, while12 ideas are trading above their 50-DMA.
- Actionable names in the Focus List include Games Workshop (GAW.GB; GAW:LN), Relx (REL.GB; REL:LN), and Technogym (TGYM.IT; TGYM:IM).
Won Global View
The U.S. market is in a Rally Attempt. Despite the heavy sell-off last week, the Nasdaq held above its recent low (17,238) for three
sessions and is open for a follow-through day as soon as today. A follow-through day is a move of +1.7% or more on volume higher than
the prior session. The Rally Attempt on the Nasdaq resets if the low (17,238) is undercut. The S&P 500 set a new low (5,504) last week
and is only on its first day off that low and will be open for a follow-through, if the low is held, as early as Wednesday.
Won Europe Today
We released our Weekly Global Laggards Report today. Click here to access the report. The stocks highlighted in this report are laggards relative to their own domestic markets. We recommend that they be underweighted as they may be vulnerable to further downside risk and underperformance. European stocks include Adidas (ADSX.DE; ADS:GR), Mips (MIPS.SE; MIPS:SS), Drax Group (DRX.GB; DRX:LN), and Allianz Technology Trust (ATT.GB; ATT:LN).
Won Global View
The U.S. market remains in a Downtrend. The S&P 500 declined 139bps yesterday and made a new lower low, resetting the rally
attempt count. Immediate support remains at the 5,500 level. The Nasdaq was down 196bps but did not make a new low, registering the
second day of a Rally Attempt. Key resistance for both the indices remains at their respective 200-DMA (5,738/18,413).
