The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 declined 37bps on higher volume, registering a distribution day, while
the Nasdaq was down 3bps on higher volume. The S&P 500 closed below its 10-DMA (6,342) for the first time since June 20, with next
support at the rising 21-DMA (6,288). The Nasdaq closed just above its 10-DMA (21,022), with the next level of support at its 21-DMA
(20,774). The distribution day count stands at four and two, respectively.
Author: Deepashree MC
U.S. Economic Summary
Q2 GDP rebounded, beating expectations: Per the advance estimate, the U.S. economy grew at an
annualized rate of 3% in Q2, reversing from a 0.5% annualized contraction in Q1 2025 and above
consensus expectations of 2.4%. The rebound was driven primarily by a 30.3% sharp drop in imports,
alongside faster consumer spending growth of 1.4% (vs 0.5% in Q1) led by goods. This more than offset a
1.8% drop in exports. Federal government spending rose 0.4%, rebounding from a 0.6% decline in Q1,
while fixed investment growth slowed sharply to 0.4% amid steep drops in structures and residential
investment. Private inventories subtracted 3.17 percentage points from headline growth, limiting the
overall gainU
Won Global View
The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 declined 12bps on higher volume, while the Nasdaq gained 15bps on
lower volume. Indices have strong support at their rising 10-DMA (6,343/21,000), followed by their 21-DMA (6,283/20,739). The distribution day count remains at three and two, respectively.
Won Europe Today
Yesterday,
- European markets closed largely flat as investors evaluated the potential impact of U.S. tariffs on corporate earnings, with several major companies warning of price hikes in Q2. On the macro front, slightly better-than-expected Eurozone GDP data offered some support, while attention turned to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy decision due later in the day.
- The Stoxx 600 ended the session flat, with support at its 10-DMA. Next support is at its 21-DMA, followed by its 50-DMA. We recommend a selective approach to adding names on a high-volume breakout or decisive retake of their key resistance levels.
- Among significant movers on the Stoxx 600, shares of Adidas (ADSX.DE; ADS:GR) plunged 11% after the company estimated a €200M hit due to the U.S tariffs in H2 FY25. It has also warned about potential price hikes in the U.S. On the flip side, shares of Dutch coffee maker JDE Peet (JDPS.NL; JDEP:NA) rose more than 10% after the company raised its FY25 sales guidance and mentioned a smaller impact from U.S. tariffs.
- Among sectors, Financial Services (+64bps) and Technology (+55bps) were the top performers, while Automobile (-191bps) and Chemical (176bps) led the losses.
- Among major indices, France’s CAC 40 closed flat and is testing support at its July 18 high. Near-term support is at its 10-DMA. Germany’s DAX 30 marked its second day of gains, closing 0.2% higher. It is testing support at its near-term moving averages. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 ended flat and is still trading at its all-time high.
- Spain was upgraded to a Confirmed Uptrend from a Rally Attempt as the index reclaimed its previous rally high. The Netherlands was shifted to a Rally Attempt from a Downtrend as the index recorded Day 3 of its rally attempt.
- Finland recorded its fifth distribution day.
- Eleven of the 16 indices we track closed in the red. Eight are in a Confirmed Uptrend, five in a Rally Attempt, two in an Uptrend Under Pressure, and one in a Downtrend. The average distribution day count stands at 2.44.
- All the 26 European Focus List names are trading above their 200-DMA, while 21 ideas are trading above their 50-DMA.
- Actionable names in the European Focus List are Camurus (CAMX.SE; CAMX:SS), Alk-Abello B (ALK.DK; ALKB:DC), Lottomatica (LOTG.IT; LTMC:IM), Nemetschek (NEMX.DE; NEM:GR), Bawag (BWGP.AT; BG:AV), and Medacta (MOVE.CH; MOVE:SW).
Won Europe Today
Yesterday,
- European markets ended higher, supported by gains in financial and defense stocks. However, Denmark’s index tumbled nearly 12%, marking its steepest intraday drop this year after drugmaker Novo Nordisk (NON.DK; NOVOB:DC) issued a profit warning, dragging the broader pharmaceutical sector down by 1.6%.
- The Stoxx 600 gained 0.3%, rebounding from the losses in its previous two sessions and is trading above all its key moving averages. We recommend a selective approach to adding names on a high-volume breakout or decisive retake of their key resistance levels.
- Among significant movers on the Stoxx 600, shares of Novo Nordisk (NON.DK; NOVOB:DC) fell ~23%, logging its all-time steepest intraday decline after the company trimmed its FY25 sales growth guidance and named a new CEO amid strong competition in the obesity drug market. On the flip side, shares of Philips (PHIL.NL; PHIA:GK), the Dutch healthcare technology group, rose 9% after the company lowered its estimated U.S. tariff impact.
- Among sectors, Banks (+163bps) and Energy (+61bps) led the gains, while Health Care (-147bps) and Mining (-99bps) lagged the most.
- Among major indices, France’s CAC 40 bounced off its 10-DMA, closing 0.7% higher. Next resistance is at its July 10 high (+0.6%). Germany’s DAX 30 reclaimed its 10- and 21-DMA. The index closed more than 1% higher after finding support at its 50-DMA. It is back above all its key moving averages. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 snapped its two-day losing streak, closing the session 0.6% higher. The index is near its all-time high.
- Denmark was downgraded to a Downtrend from a Confirmed Uptrend as the index closed ~12% lower, making a new low and breaching all its key support levels.
- The Netherlands recorded Day 2 of its rally attempt.
- All the 16 indices we track closed in the green, except Denmark and Finland. Seven are in a Confirmed Uptrend, five in a Rally Attempt, two in an Uptrend Under Pressure, and two in a Downtrend. The average distribution day count stands at 2.33.
- Of the 26 European Focus List names, 21 ideas are trading above their 50-DMA, while 25 are trading above their 200-DMA.
- Actionable names in the European Focus List are Camurus (CAMX.SE; CAMX:SS), Alk-Abello B (ALK.DK; ALKB:DC), Lottomatica (LOTG.IT; LTMC:IM),Nemetschek (NEMX.DE; NEM:GR), Bawag (BWGP.AT; BG:AV), and Medacta (MOVE.CH; MOVE:SW).
Won Global View
The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 declined 30bps on higher volume, registering a distribution day, while
the Nasdaq was down ~40bps on lower volume. Indices have strong support at their rising 10-DMA (6,338/20,971), followed by their 21-
DMA (6,275/20,700). The distribution day count stands at three and two, respectively.
Won Europe Today
We released our European Weekly Summary yesterday. Click here for the full report. Key points from it include:
- European markets closed higher last week, with most of them trading near their 52-week highs.
- Among sectors, Automakers and Luxury outperformed on hopes of a U.S.-European Union trade deal, while Technology pulled back following Intel’s hawkish commentary on weakening capex trends.
Won Global View
The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 closed flat on higher volume, while the Nasdaq was up 33bps on lower
volume. Indices have strong support at their rising 10-DMA (6,331/20,943), followed by their 21-DMA (6,265/20,660). The distribution day
count remains at two on each index.
Won Europe Today
On Friday,
- European markets ended the week lower as investors responded to mixed earnings and monitored developments in an EU-U.S. trade deal that officials indicated could be finalized over the weekend. The focus now shifts to a crucial week that includes the Fed’s policy meeting, the August 1 U.S. tariff deadline, and the results from major U.S. tech companies.
- Among key movers on the Stoxx 600, shares of Puma (PUMX.DE; PUM:GR) fell ~16%, their biggest drop in over four months, after the company reported disappointing Q2 results and lowered its 2025 forecast. Meanwhile, shares of LVMH (LVMH.FR; MC:FP)gained 3.9% as investors embraced indications of a business recovery in China, as emphasized in its Q2 report.
- The Stoxx 600 closed the session 0.3% lower. Immediate support is at its 10-DMA (-0.4%), followed by its 50-DMA (-0.6%). We recommend a selective approach to adding names on a high-volume breakout or decisive retake of their key moving averages.
- Among sectors, Automobiles & Parts (+129bps), Utility (+28bps), and Travel & Leisure (+20bps) were the top gainers, while Financial Services (-91bps), Telecommunications (-69bps), and Technology (-61bps) lagged the most.
- Among major indices, France’s CAC bounced off its 21-DMA and gained 0.2%. Immediate resistance is at its July high (+0.9%). Germany’s DAX fell 0.4% and tested support at its 21-DMA. Next support is at its 50-DMA (-2%). The U.K.’s FTSE ended the session 0.2% lower after seven consecutive sessions of gains. Support is at its 10-DMA (-0.9%).
- Nine of the 16 markets we track closed in the red. Ten are in a Confirmed Uptrend, five in a Rally Attempt, and one in a Downtrend.
- Denmark was upgraded to a Confirmed Uptrend from a Rally Attempt after the index reclaimed its previous rally high.
- Of the 25 European Focus List names, 24 are trading above their 200-DMA, while20 names are trading above their 50-DMA.
- Actionable names in the Focus List include Scout24 (Xet) (G24X.DE; G24:GR), Lottomatica (LOTG.IT; LTMC:IM), Medacta Group (MOVE.CH; MOVE:SW), Nemetschek (Xet) (NEMX.DE; NEM:GR), and Bawag Group (BWGP.AT; BG:AV).
Won Global View
The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. On Friday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 40bps and 24bps, respectively, on
lower volume. Indices have strong support at their rising 10-DMA (6,318/20,890), followed by their 21-DMA (6,253/20,608). The distribution day count stands at two on each index, after one expired on each index last Friday after market close.
