XLV traded relatively flat last week, holding sharp gains from the week prior and continuing to sharply outperform the broader market. The index was able to hold near-term support at its 21-DMA ($127.28) before rallying just above its 50-DMA ($129) to close the week. Should XLV remain above its 50-DMA, the next level of logical resistance is the 200-DMA ($132). We continue to recommend an overweight position in the sector as its RS line continues to rise.
Author: Raj Gupta
Market View
The U.S. market is in an Uptrend Under Pressure. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq reversed from their respective 10-WMA early in the week, adding distribution and breaking below the 21-DMA (S&P 500: 3,872; Nasdaq: 11,343). There is no clear support above year-to-date lows (S&P 500: 3,636; Nasdaq:10,565), which, if breached, would result in the market status moving back to Downtrend. The distribution day count stands at one and two, respectively.
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV gained nearly 8% last week, retracing the majority of the last two weeks of losses. The ETF now faces direct
resistance at its 50-DMA ($129.96). Given a very sharp move into resistance, look for consolidation to be contained above
the 21-DMA ($126.40). Overall, Health Care was the second best performing sector last week and is the best performing
over the last four- and eight weeks with an RS line at new highs, warranting an overweight position.
Market View
The U.S. market has been upgraded to a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq staged a Day 5 follow-through Friday, jumping over 3% in higher day/day volume. This is now the fifth FTD of the year. Both indices cleared the 10- and 21-DMA, which will now serve as near-term support, while the next level of logical resistance is the sharply rolling 50-DMA (S&P 500: 4,066; Nasdaq: 11,998).
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV declined another 4.5% last week, breaking to eight-month lows and through $124 support. Despite the decline its RS
line continues to trend higher. We now view the next range of support between $116 to $119. Resistance is the falling 10-
DMA ($123.80) and 21-DMA ($126.55).
Market View
The U.S. market is in a Downtrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq gapped down to year-to-date lows this week in heavy volume killing the fourth follow-through day (FTD) this year. The seven bear markets since 1971 had a median of six failed FTDs. The next level of support on the S&P 500 is ~3,549, while support on the Nasdaq is ~10,519 before ~10,200. Near-term resistance remains the falling 10-DMA (S&P 500: 3,839; Nasdaq: 11,200).
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV declined 3.3%, falling for a second straight week and back below all key moving averages. The 10, 21- and now 50-
DMA are all rolling lower and will act as near-term resistance going forward. The 10-DMA is trading at $129.34. Long-term
support remains ~$124. Should this level break, the next level of support is ~$119.
Market View
The U.S. market is in an Uptrend Under Pressure. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq broke sharply below a two-week trading
range and 21-DMA support (S&P 500: 4,073; Nasdaq: 11,930) Thursday, before gapping down below the May 26 followthrough day low Friday. The distribution day count increased to three each. The market will be downgraded to Downtrend
should year-to-date lows (S&P 500: 3,810; Nasdaq: 11,035) undercut.
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV retraced last week’s gains, reversing from 50-DMA ($133.67) resistance to close 3.1% lower and below its 10- and
21-DMA. All three moving averages will now act as near-term resistance. The next level of support is $125.28 before
~$124.
Market View
The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq held slightly above 21-DMA support
(S&P 500: 4,086; Nasdaq: 11,981) this week, consolidating sharp gains off recent lows in choppy fashion. The next level
of logical resistance for both indices is the sharply falling 50-DMA (S&P 500: 4,249; Nasdaq: 12,773). Following Tuesday’s
rebalancing volume spike, volume came in well below average for the remaining three sessions allowing the distribution
day count to stay at one each.
