Author: Tristan d'Aboville

Tristan d’Aboville is an Executive Director, Research Analyst, managing the European Research Product. Mr. d’Aboville has more than 16 years of experience in equity research and sales. Since joining the firm in 2012, he has applied his client-centric style with analysts and portfolio managers, anticipating and exceeding their needs. He writes the well-received weekly European commentary, and follows it with a client conference call to discuss findings. Prior to William O’Neil + Co., Mr. d’Aboville was a top-producing salesperson at Kepler Capital Markets, formerly known as Julius Baer, and at Natixis Bleichroeder, covering European equities for large U.S. institutional clients. He started his career as an equity analyst at Aurel-BGC, later moving to Natixis Bleichroeder, where he became the lead analyst for the European Hotels, Leisure and Catering Sector. He was recognized as a Top Analyst for Predictability & Recommendations by AQ Publications in 2003. Extel named him one of the top three European analysts covering the business services and hotel & leisure industries. Prior to the securities industry, Mr. D’Aboville was an auditor with Arthur Anderson. Mr. d’Aboville earned a Master of Science in Managerial and Financial Economics from ISC Paris School of Management. Later, he studied Global Affairs at New York University. He is a Certified International Investment Analyst (CIIA). A sportif, Mr. d’Aboville enjoys kite surfing, sailing, skiing, tennis, chess, and spending as much of his free time as possible with his wife, young daughter, and son.

European Weekly Summary

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Key points from this week’s report:
Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.

The Stoxx 600 was shifted to a Downtrend last week, after breaching its key support levels. European majors continued their fall last week, breaking prior support levels. Hawkish stance by the central bank to combat inflation and soaring energy prices weigh on the markets.
Major indices have moved a further leg down, back to their earlier support levels and have shown some positive action at those levels on Friday. We want the majors to hold their previous support levels and bounce back above their short-term moving averages in the near term.
We recommend a cautious and patient approach to adding risk as indices are trading below their short-term moving averages/key consolidation support levels. Continue to focus on high relative strength leaders, while reducing risk in lagging ideas breaking logical levels of support.
Financial was the only sector in the green last week while all other sectors closed in the red. On our rotation chart, Energy and Transportation are showing improvement in the short-term momentum while all other sectors are taking a pause its short-term momentum (over four weeks).
European Focus List Update:
Actionable names in the Focus List include Ox2 (OX2.SE, OX2:SS), Aker Bp (AKEP.NO, AKRBP:NO), Edenred (EDEN.FR, EDEN:FP), Lvmh (LVMH.FR; MC:FP), Compass Group (CPG.GB, CPG:LN), and Terna Energy (TEN.GR, TENERGY:GA).
No new additions or removal last week.

European Weekly Summary

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Key points from this week’s report:
Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.

  • The Stoxx 600 was shifted to an Uptrend Under pressure after breaching its 100-DMA with high distribution days. Last week, European majors fell the most since early June, on the back of the Fed’s Hawkish commentary to keep raising interest rates to combat inflation and soaring energy prices.
  • Majors breached below the key support levels in which they were consolidating in over the past few weeks post the July rally. This sets up indices for a further down leg, back to their earlier resistance levels, which are likely to act as support going forward. We want to see majors hold their previous resistance levels and bounce back above their short-term moving averages in the near term.
  • We recommend a cautious and patient approach to adding risk as indices reversed sharply on Friday and closed below their short-term moving averages/key consolidation support levels. Continue to focus on high relative strength leaders, while reducing risk in lagging ideas breaking logical levels of support.
  • Energy was the only sector in the green last week. Defensive sectors held up while all other sectors closed in the red. On our rotation chart, Energy and Transportation are showing improvement in the short-term momentum, while all the other sectors are taking a pause in short-term momentum (over four weeks).
  • European Focus List Update: Actionable names in the Focus List include Ox2 (OX2.SE, OX2:SS),Novo Nordisk (NON.DK, NOVOB:DC), Aker Bp (AKEP.NO, AKRBP:NO), Edp Renovaveis (EDPR.PT, EDPR:PL ), Edenred (EDEN.FR, EDEN:FP), Lvmh (LVMH.FR; MC:FP), Wolters Kluwer (WSG.NL, WKL:NA), Compass Group (CPG.GB, CPG:LN), Neoen (NEOP.FR, NEOEN:FP), Ipsos (IPS.FR, IPS:FP), AstraZeneca (AZN.GB, AZN:LN), Terna Energy (TEN.GR, TENERGY:GA), and Solaria Energia Y Medio Ambiente (SEM.ES, SLR:SM).
  • New addition last week: Ox2 (OX2.SE)

European Weekly Summary

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Key points from this week’s report:

Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.

 

  • The Stoxx 600 is in a Confirmed Uptrend with four distribution days. The index closed the third week of August in the red, posting the highest decline in seven weeks. Weakness persisted on Monday this week, but the index was able to find support at its 100-DMA. Concerns about the impact of future interest rate hikes aimed at curbing inflation weighed on the markets.
  • Last week, most majors were extended from their short-term moving averages at the start of the week following the rally, and retracements to short-term support levels were expected. We want the majors to hold the previous resistance levels and move to their long-term moving averages to see a structural change. Still, many levels of supply zones need to be taken out and held going forward.
  • Thus, we continue to recommend a selective approach in adding risk with focus on high relative strength ideas that are part of leading and/or improving industry groups.
  • European Focus List Update: Actionable names in the Focus List include Edenred (EDEN.FR, EDEN:FP), Lvmh (LVMH.FR; MC:FP), Relx (REL.GB, REL:LN), Wolters Kluwer (WSG.NL, WKL:NA), Compass Group (CPG.GB, CPG:LN), Neoen (NEOP.FR, NEOEN:FP), Ipsos (IPS.FR, IPS:FP), Solaria Energia Y Medio Ambiente (SEM.ES, SLR:SM), Rwe (Xet) (RWEX.DE, RWE:GR), AstraZeneca (AZN.GB, AZN:LN), Serco Group (SRP.GB, SRP:LN), Elisa (ELIS.FR, ELISA:FH), and Terna Energy (TEN.GR, TENERGY:GA).
  • New additions last week: None
  • Removal last week: None

European Weekly Summary

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Key points from this week’s report:

Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.

 

  • European majors closed the second week of August in the green after the pause in the first week. Indices rose to the highest level in two months as investors weighed the lower-than-expected inflation data and its impact on rate hikes.
  • The pause in the first week of August has been taken out by most majors, indicating a constructive setup for the next leg of the move. We will want the majors to hold the previous resistance levels and move to their long-term moving averages to see a structural change. Still, there are many levels of supply zones that need to be taken out and held going forward.
  • We recommend becoming selective in adding risk with a focus on high relative strength ideas that are part of leading and/or improving industry groups.
  • Sectoral momentum was mixed. Energy and Financials led the rally, while Health Care and Transportation lagged. On our rotation chart, Tech, Retail, Cyclical, and Capital Equipment showed improvement in the short-term momentum, while Energy, Basic Material, Financial, and Utility continued to lag their short-term momentum (over four weeks).
  • European Focus List Update: Actionable names in the Focus List include Edenred (EDEN.FR, EDEN:FP), Lvmh (LVMH.FR; MC:FP), Relx (REL.GB, REL:LN), Wolters Kluwer (WSG.NL, WKL:NA), Compass Group (CPG.GB, CPG:LN), Neoen (NEOP.FR, NEOEN:FP), Ipsos (IPS.FR, IPS:FP), Solaria Energia Y Medio Ambiente (SEM.ES, SLR:SM), Rwe (Xet) (RWEX.DE, RWE:GR), and AstraZeneca (AZN.GB, AZN:LN).
  • New additions last week: Edenred (EDEN.FR)
  • Removal last week: Alcon (Swx) Ord Shs (ALC.CH) and Gsk (GSK.GB)

European Weekly Summary

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Key points from this week’s report:

Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.

 

  • European majors closed the week marginally in the red after two weeks of strong gains. The better-than-expected U.S. jobs data brought back the possibility of a steep rate hike by the Fed to curtail inflation and weighed on the markets. This came a day after the Bank of England raised interest rates by the most in 27 years. The majors are taking a pause and finding supply after their rally last month.
  • The majors had taken out the first leg of their overhead resistance in late July and are currently seeing some consolidation/pull back. We will want the majors to hold the previous resistance levels and move to their long-term moving averages to see a structural change. Still, there are many levels of supply zones that need to be taken out and held going forward.
  • We recommend becoming selective in adding risk with a focus on high relative strength ideas that are part of leading and/or improving industry groups.
  • Sectoral momentum was flat. Transportation and financials led the rally, while Health Care, Capital Equipment, and Energy lagged. On our rotation chart, Retail, Cyclical, and Tech showed improvement in their short-term momentum, while Energy, Basic Material, and Financial continued to lag their short-term momentum (over four weeks).
  • European Focus List Update: Actionable names include LVMH (LVMH.FR; MC: FP), Relx (REL.GB, REL:LN), Wolters Kluwer (WSG.NL, WKL:NA), Compass Group (CPG.GB, CPG:LN), Neoen (NEOP.FR, NEOEN:FP), Ipsos (IPS.FR, IPS:FP), Solaria Energia Y Medio Ambiente (SEM.ES, SLR:SM), Rwe (Xet) (RWEX.DE, RWE:GR), and AstraZeneca (AZN.GB, AZN:LN).
    • New additions last week: LVMH (LVMH.FR) and Relx (REL.GB)
    • Removal last week: None

European Weekly Summary

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Key points from this week’s report:

Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.

 

Key points:

  • European majors had the best monthly gains since November 2020. They are setting up constructively for the next leg of the move to their long-term moving averages after forming a base in the last couple of months. The majors have taken out the first leg of their overhead resistances that they struggled to breach in the last few months and are now moving in the right direction for a structural change. Still, we see many levels of supply zones that need to be taken out and held going forward. Corporate earnings and Fed’s commentary that the rate hikes will slow in the near future provided some relief to the recession fears.

 

  • The market breadth is starting to show signs of improvement and leadership is emerging in their respective sectors. We recommend becoming incremental in adding risk with a focus on high relative strength ideas that are part of leading and/or improving industry groups.

 

  • Transportation, Energy, and Basic Material led the rally. Positive momentum was seen across all sectors, indicating positive breadth. On our rotation chart, Retail, Tech, Health Care, and Staple showed improvement in the short-term momentum while Energy, Basic Material, and Financial continued to lag their short-term momentum (over four weeks).

 

  • European Focus List Update:
  • Actionable ideas: Wolters Kluwer (WSG.NL, WKL:NA), Compass Group (CPG.GB, CPG:LN), Man Group (EMG.GB, EMG:LN), Novo Nordisk (NON.DK, NOVOB:DC), Neoen (NEOP.FR, NEOEN:FP), Ipsos (IPS.FR, IPS:FP), Solaria Energia Y Medio Ambiente (SEM.ES, SLR:SM), Terna Energy (TEN.GR, TENERGY:GA), Serco Group (SRP.GB, SRP:LN), Rwe (Xet) (RWEX.DE, RWE:GR), and AstraZeneca (AZN.GB, AZN:LN).
  • New additions last week: None
  • Removal last week: None

O’Neil Consumer/Retail Weekly

Posted on by Tristan d'Aboville

Consumer Cyclical (XLY): The index is has rallied above the 50-DMA but has started finding resistance at the $158 level.
RS line has started correcting with a RS Rating of 37 and A/D Rating of D, as concerns rise of a recession in the U.S.
which would affect discretionary spending power.