Key Points:
Technically, the overall commodity complex remains very weak. The Invesco DB Commodity Index is nearly 20% off 52-week highs, well below both the 10- and 40-WMA. In addition, it has undercut the May lows suggesting further downside risk. There is support at the December 2018 lows. A retest of that level is possible as most commodities outside of precious metals ( majority of index weighting ) are trending lower.
Marked divergence within the space, as commodities related to agricultural consumption and most related to industrial production are very weak, while precious metals are trending higher.
We will be watching for some consolidation near highs in the leading precious metal groups and, conversely, weak bounces from lows in the other lagging commodity groups for new opportunities to play the inverse trends.
See attachment for stocks of interest in both best and worst groups.
