Mar 28, 2025

The U.S. market is in a Rally Attempt. Indices are fading after bouncing into moving average resistance. The S&P 500 is pulling back from its 200-DMA (5,759) while the Nasdaq is declining from its 21-DMA (18,048). The next level of support is at the recent low of ~5,504 and ~17,238 on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, respectively. The market status will move back to a downtrend should both indices undercut their recent low (S&P 500: 5,504, Nasdaq: 17,238). Until then, the window for a follow-through day (FTD) remains open

Mar 21, 2025

The U.S. market is in a Rally Attempt. The S&P 500 rose 0.5%, while the Nasdaq rose 0.2% last week, including upside intraday reversals to close positive on Friday. Indices have resistance at declining 21-DMAs (5,748, 18,166), which is now crossed below the 200-DMA The window for a follow-through day (FTD) remains open unless indices undercut last week’s intraday lows (5,505, 17,238).

Mar 14, 2025

The U.S. market is in a Rally Attempt. Despite the heavy sell-off this week, the Nasdaq has held above its recent low (17,238) for three sessions and is open for a follow through day as soon as Monday. A follow through day is a move of +1.7% or more on volume higher than the prior session. The Rally Attempt on the Nasdaq resets if the low (17,238) is undercut. The S&P 500 set a new low (5,504) on Thursday and is only on its first day off that low and will be open for a follow through, if the low is held, as early as Wednesday.

O'Neil Energy/Material Weekly

Mar 28, 2025

FedEx Corp. (FDX) – reported Q3 FY24 results and cut its full-year earnings forecast for the third consecutive quarter. Adjusted EPS came in at $4.51, missing estimates of $4.57, while revenue of $22.2B beta estimates by 1%. The company lowered its FY24 adjusted EPS guidance to $18.0-$18.6 (previously $19.0-$20.0), and capital expenditure outlook to $4.9B from $5.2B. Operating income fell slightly short of expectations at $1.51B vs. estimates of $1.52B, while the adjusted operating margin of 6.8% missed estimates by 26 bps. The company continues cost-cutting efforts under its DRIVE initiative but ...

O'Neil Global Cryptocurrency Weekly

Mar 28, 2025

Commentary: We upgraded Bitcoin to a Confirmed Uptrend from a Rally Attempt as it staged a follow-through day on March 24. GBTC has gained 4% this week and continues to hold above its 200-DMA. Our conviction in the new rally would increase if GBTC is able to break above resistance at its 50-DMA ($73.33; 9% away). Given overall market conditions in the U.S. and risk aversion environment, our conviction in the current rally in low.

O'Neil Consumer/Retail Weekly

Mar 26, 2025

Consumer Staples (XLP):.The index continues to trade below all key moving averages. It is facing stiff resistance from its 50-DMA. Immediate resistance is at its declining 10-DMA, which has crossed below its 50-, 100- and 200-DMA. Support is at $75.8 (-4%)