The U.S. market is in a Downtrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq staged downside reversals, unable to hold early session gains. The
S&P 500 is finding resistance near its 100-DMA (4,576), with the next level of support at its 200-DMA (4,428). The Nasdaq is hitting
resistance at its 200-DMA (14,736), with the next level of support at ~13,800. With the market in a Downtrend, we are now looking for
indices to establish and hold a new low for a minimum of three sessions, at which point we will shift the market status to a Rally Attempt.
From that point forward (day four and beyond), we will be looking for a follow-through day before advising a gradual increase in risk.
Author: admin
WON Europe Today
Yesterday,
- European markets had a flat day. Most major indices are either testing or breaking below their key support levels.
We recommend that investors adopt a patient approach and add any risk that has consolidated around its 50-DMA.
Trim positions on stocks that have breached their long-term key support levels. - The Stoxx 600 managed to close above its 50-DMA on higher volume. Among sectors, Oil & Gas stocks and Mining
stocks performed well, with Mining stocks gaining 2.7%. - Among other major indices, France’s CAC is finding resistance at its 21-DMA while Germany’s DAX managed to
close above its 50-DMA after finding resistance at its 21-DMA. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 continues to rise along its
rising 10-DMA. - Among the 17 major indices that we track in Europe, Austria, Belgium, Finland, Norway, Spain, Switzerland,
Luxembourg, and Italy closed in negative territory. Finland, Italy, and Norway recorded a distribution day each. - New Focus List addition Compass Group (CPG.GB; CPG:LN) is actionable after breaking out of a stage-two
consolidation. Other actionable names in the Focus List include Aker Bp (AKEP.NO; AKRBP:NO), Airbus
(AIRS.FR; AIR:FP), Beneteau (CHBE.FR; BEN:FP), Paragon Banking Group PLC (PAG.GB; PAG:LN), Richemont
(CFR.CH; CFR:SW), and Yougov (YOU.GB; YOU:LN).
Won Global View
The U.S. market has been downgraded to a Downtrend. This is the first downgrade since March 4, 2021. The S&P 500 pierced its 100-
DMA (4,576), a level it has held above since last October and tested three times since December. The next level of support on the S&P
500 is 3% lower at the rising 200-DMA (4,425). The Nasdaq also closed at session lows and remains below its 200-DMA (14,734), which is
now a level of resistance. The next level of support is ~14,200. We will upgrade the market status on either a new high on the S&P 500 or
a follow-through on either index.
O’Neil Capital Equipment Sector Weekly
We removed Kornit Digital from our Focus List as the stock breached support along its 200-DMA. The stock has been lagging the broader market and is forming a stagetwo base since the company completed a primary offering of 2,645,953 (~5% of free float) shares at $151 per share in November 2021. The fundamental story still remains intact with management targeting to reach revenue of $1B by FY26.
Won Global View
The U.S. market remains in an Uptrend Under Pressure. We will downgrade the market status to a Downtrend should the S&P 500
close below its 100-DMA (4,576), a level it has rallied from three times since early December. All near-term moving averages, including
the 10- and 21-DMA, are beginning to decline and could act as resistance on any rebound. The Nasdaq is now trading 11% off highs
and below its 200-DMA. The next level of support is ~14,200. The distribution day count stands at seven and four, respectively, with two
days expiring on the S&P 500 and one on the Nasdaq this week.
WON Europe Today
Yesterday,
- European markets had a weak session. Most major indices are breaking below or testing their key support levels.
We recommend that investors adopt a patient approach and add any risk that has consolidated around its 50-DMA.
Trim positions on stocks that have breached their long-term key support levels. - The Stoxx 600 was downgraded to an Uptrend Under Pressure after it breached its 50-DMA. Most sectors closed in
negative territory with Technology losing more than 2%. Personal & Household Goods lost 1.4% while Oil & Gas
stocks gained 1%. - Among other major indices, France’s CAC and Germany’s DAX broke below their 21-DMA and 50-DMA,
respectively. Both indices recorded their fifth and seventh distribution day, respectively. The U.K.’s FTSE continues
to rise along its rising 10-DMA. - Among the 17 indices that we track, only Norway closed in positive territory. Nine indices recorded a distribution
day. Average distribution day count stands at 3.5. - Aker Bp (AKEP.NO; AKERBP:NO) has turned actionable after it reclaimed its 50-DMA. Other actionable names in
the Focus List include Airbus (AIRS.FR; AIR:FP), Beneteau (CHBE.FR; BEN:FP), Paragon Banking Group PLC
(PAG.GB; PAG:LN), Richemont (CFR.CH; CFR:SW), and Yougov (YOU.GB; YOU:LN).
Won Global View
The U.S. market is in an Uptrend Under Pressure. The S&P 500 is testing support along its 100-DMA (4,575) for the third time since
early December. The index is trading 3% off highs and below price resistance at 4,748 before all-time highs. The Nasdaq tested 200-DMA
(14,726) support twice last week, narrowly closing above that level Friday. This index is trading 8% off highs and below multiple layers of
resistance, including the 100-DMA at 15,277. The 50-DMA has also begun to turn lower. The distribution day count stands at seven and
three, respectively, with multiple days set to expire on both indices this week.
WON Europe Today
We released our European Weekly Summary yesterday. Click here to access the report. Key points from it include:
- The Stoxx 600 remains in a Confirmed Uptrend with four distribution days. Among the 17 indices we cover,
Denmark was however moved to a Downtrend while Germany and Switzerland were downgraded to an Uptrend
Under Pressure. - Last week, value stocks (+1.6%) led by Banks, Basic Material, and Energy outperformed growth stocks (-3.6%) by
a large margin. The rotation toward value now seems extended on a three-month rolling price performance,
suggesting a short-term pause in the value trade. - European Focus List Update: We added Rvrc Holding (RVRH.SE; RVRC:SS) and Jeronimo Martins (JMT.PT;
JMT:PL). We removed Eurofins Scientific (EUF.FR; EUF:FP), Puma (Xet) (PUMX.DE; PUM:GR), Partners Group
Holding (PGHN.CH; PGHN:SW), Dechra Pharmaceuticals (DPH.GB; DPH:LN), Vitrolife (VITR.SE; VITR:SS),
Rentokil Initial (RTO.GB; RTO:LN), Sartorius Pref. (Xet) (SRT3X.DE; SRT3:GR), and Interroll (INRN.CH;
INRN:SW).
WON Europe Today
On Friday,
- European markets had a weak session with most of the major markets testing their key moving averages. Due to
the volatile nature of the markets, we recommend that investors adopt a patient approach and add any risk that has
consolidated around its 50-DMA. Trim positions on stocks that have breached their long-term key support levels. - The Stoxx 600 is testing support at its 50-DMA after breaking below its 21-DMA. Most sectors closed in negative
territory with Financial Services and Construction & Materials losing the most. - Among other major indices, France’s CAC is finding resistance at the November 2021 highs. Germany’s DAX
recorded its sixth distribution day and is testing support at its 21-DMA. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 continues to rise along
its 10-DMA. - Among the 17 indices that we track in Europe, only Norway and Luxembourg closed in positive territory. Denmark
was downgraded to a Confirmed Downtrend after breaching its Day 1 low.
Actionable names in the Focus List include Airbus (AIRS.FR; AIR:FP), Beneteau (CHBE.FR; BEN:FP), Paragon
Banking Group PLC (PAG.GB; PAG:LN), Richemont (CFR.CH; CFR:SW), and Yougov (YOU.GB; YOU:LN).
Won Global View
The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 pulled back off session highs but remains 1% above support at its 50-
DMA (4,680) after bouncing higher over the prior two sessions. The Nasdaq also faded off session highs after facing resistance at its 100-
DMA (15,279) but remains in the lower half of its base consolidation. The distribution day count stands at seven and three, respectively,
with no expiration until next week.
