The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. Indices pulled back given growth constituents remain under heavy distribution. The S&P 500 closed slightly below its 21-DMA (4,716) with the next level of support at its rising 50-DMA (4,669). The Nasdaq closed at session lows after falling ~3% and through its 50- and 100-DMA. The next level of price support is at the December lows (~14,860), followed by the rising 200-DMA (14,660). The distribution day count increased to seven on the S&P 500 but remains at four on the Nasdaq.
Author: admin
Won Global View
The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. Indices were mixed on Tuesday. The S&P 500 closed roughly flat and close to the middle of the daily range. For six sessions, it has consolidated the sharp move higher from late-December. The S&P 500 remains 1% above the prior all-time high (4,743) and 1.6% above the rising 21-DMA (4,718). The Nasdaq traded down as much as 2% before closing down 1.3% and picking up a distribution day. It is right at 21-/50-DMA near 15,600 and continues to find resistance at the base midpoint around 15,800. The S&P 500 lost one distribution day due to expiry and now has six. The Nasdaq also lost one, but the addition on Tuesday keeps the total at four.
Won Europe Today
Yesterday,
- European markets continued their positive momentum with most major indices closing in the green.
Risk appetite has returned amid optimism around the severity of a new variant and effectiveness of the vaccines.
Markets have recovered in the past few weeks to trade close to fresh highs as signs indicate that the omicron
variant is milder, even as regions see an increase in numbers of cases. We recommend a patient approach to
adding risk. Continue to focus on high quality ideas with an improving RS line while reducing exposure to ideas
breaking below long-term support levels. - The Stoxx 600 gained 0.8% on above average volume and is trading above its key moving averages. It has
immediate support at its 50-DMA (-2.8%) and is currently at its highs. Most sectors closed in the green, with Banks
advancing 3.3% and Oil and Gas closing 2.3% higher. - Among major indices, France’s CAC, the U.K.’s FTSE, and Germany’s DAX are trading above their respective 21-
and 50-DMA. All three indices closed in the green. - Among the 17 indices we cover, most closed in the green with Ireland gaining the most, up 2.6%. The Stoxx 600
and the U.K.’s FTSE were shifted to a Confirmed Uptrend from an Uptrend Under Pressure after the indices
reclaimed their previous rally highs. Ten indices are in a Confirmed Uptrend, one in a Rally Attempt, and the
remaining six in an Uptrend Under Pressure. The average distribution day count stands at 3.6.
Actionable names in the Focus List include Teleperformance (ROFR.FR), Halma (HLMA.DG), Coface
(COFA.FR), Beneteau (CHBE.FR) and Paragon Banking (PAG.GB).
Won Europe Today
We released our European Weekly Summary today. Click here to access the report. Key points from it include:
- Last week, European markets were bullish with thin trading volume amid positive news around effectiveness of
vaccines. - Although the Stoxx 600 is now trading just 0.3% off its November 17 high, we continue to recommend a targeted
approach as there is still a lack of breadth in the market. The index remains in an Uptrend Under Pressure with four
distribution days. - On our rotation chart, defensive sectors, Basic Material, Consumer Staple, and Utility, are showing improving shortterm momentum (over four weeks).
- European Focus List Update: Last week, we added Alcon (Swx) Ord Shs (ALC.CH; ALC:SW) and removed none.
The list currently consists of 42 stocks, overweighted toward Capital Equipment and Health Care.
Won Global View
The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. Indices tacked on gains after pulling back over the last few sessions. The S&P 500 remains above its 10-DMA and near all-time highs, while the Nasdaq bounced +1.2% off support at its 50-DMA (15,602). The distribution day count remains elevated at seven and four on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, respectively, with one day expiring on each index after the close and another on the Nasdaq after the close on Friday.
Won Europe Today
On Friday,
- European markets declined marginally on low volume. Positive news updates on the Omicron variant with reports
of fewer hospitalizations and milder cases were the key. Positive reports from vaccine manufacturers regarding the
effectiveness of boosters were also a market positive. Continue to focus on quality ideas showing strong near-term
relative strength and trading above their respective 50-DMA. - The Stoxx 600 declined 0.2% on thin volume. It is trading above its key moving averages and has immediate
support at its 50-DMA (~2%). It is currently 1% off highs. Sectors were mixed amid low trading volume. Travel and
Leisure declined 0.4% while Automobiles and Parts ended 0.1% higher. - Among major indices, France’s CAC, the U.K.’s FTSE, and Germany’s DAX are trading above their respective 21-
and 50-DMA. - Among the 17 indices we cover, the majority ended flat. Seven are in a Confirmed Uptrend, one in a Rally Attempt,
and the remaining nine in an Uptrend Under Pressure. The average distribution day count stands at 3.9. - Actionable names in the Focus List include Alcon (ALC.CH; ALC:SW), Dassault Systemes (DSY.FR; DSY:FP),
Infineon Techs (Xet) (IFXX.DE; IFX:GR), Nibe Industrier (NIBE.SE; NIBEB:SS), Paragon Banking Group PLC
(PAG.GB; PAG:LN), Schneider Electric (QT@F.FR; SU:FP), Teleperformance (ROFR.FR; TEP:FP), and Yougov
(YOU.GB; YOU:LN).
Won Global View
The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 rallied back to all-time highs on December 27, and while it failed to make further progress, it remains above the prior high of 4,743. Below that support is the rising 21-DMA (4,703). The Nasdaq held a recent retake of the 50-DMA, but it is facing resistance at the midpoint of its nine-week consolidation (~15,800) and is about 3% below all-time highs. Indices finished the year with 27% and 21% gains, respectively. The S&P 500 picked up two consecutive distribution days to end the week and now has seven. The Nasdaq lost one last week and has four. One expires on each index early this week.
Won Global View
The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 fell 0.3% on Thursday, picking up its first distribution day in two
weeks. Still, it has continued to consolidate in a tight range after the break into highs on Monday. Support is the prior high around 4,740,
and then the rising 21-DMA (4,697). The Nasdaq fell by a bit less, consolidating well above its 50-DMA. It continues to test resistance at
the midpoint of an eight-week consolidation (~15,800) while remaining about 3% off all-time highs (16,212). Support is the 50-DMA at
15,580. Distribution day counts stand at six and four, respectively, with one day expiring on both indices early next week.
Won Europe Today
We released our Weekly Global Laggards Report yesterday (please click here to access the report). The stocks
highlighted in this report are laggards relative to their own domestic markets. We recommend that they be under weighted
as they may be vulnerable to further downside risk and underperformance. European names highlighted this week include
DiaSorin (DIA.IT; DIA:IM), Hellofresh (HFGX.DE; HFG:GR), Whitbread (WTB.GB; WTB:LN), Mowi (MHG.NO; MOWI:NO),
Solvay (SOL.BE; SOLB:BB), Thales (CSF.FR; HO:FP), and Accor SA (AC.FR; AC:FP).
Won Global View
The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 rose slightly in very low volume as it continues to hold an early-week
break into all-time highs. Support is the prior high around 4,740, and then the rising 21-DMA (4,688). The Nasdaq underperformed for a
second day, closing slightly lower. It continues to test resistance from the midpoint of an eight-week consolidation (~15,800) while
remaining about 2.5% off all-time highs (16,212). Support is the 50-DMA at 15,569. Distribution day counts stand at five and four,
respectively, with one day expiring on both indices early next week.
