The U.S. market remains in a Rally Attempt. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq managed to close off session lows yesterday and now again face near-term resistance at their respective 10-DMA (S&P 500: 4,289; Nasdaq: 13,281). Today will mark Day 12 of the attempted rally as the February 24 low continues to hold.
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Won Europe Today
We released our Weekly Global Laggards Report today. Click here to access the report. The stocks highlighted in this
report are laggards relative to their own domestic markets. We recommend that they be under weighted as they may be
vulnerable to further downside risk and underperformance. European names highlighted this week include Sgs ‘N’
(SGSN.CH; SGSN:SW), Future plc (FUTR.GB; FUTR:LN), Beiersdorf (BEIX.DE, BEI:GR), Unilever (ULVR.GB, ULVR:LN),
Amplifon (AMP.IT; AMP:IM), and Fnac Darty (FNAC.FR; FNAC:FP).
Won Global View
The U.S. market remains in a Rally Attempt. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq jumped +2.6% and +3.6%, respectively, albeit on lower volume day-over-day. The bounce was into resistance at the downward sloping 10-DMA (S&P 500: 4,295; Nasdaq: 13,314). Indices remain volatile but above support at the February 24 low (S&P 500: 4,114; Nasdaq: 12,587).
Won Europe Today
Yesterday,
- European markets made strong gains, pulling back some of the losses made in the last four trading sessions when
the indices closed in the red. The markets remained choppy due to concerns surrounding the conflict in Ukraine.
Oil prices dropped more than 12% to $111.1 on news that Iraq could increase output, if OPEC agrees. The UAE
also signaled support for the initiative. Investors would be looking forward to reports from ECB’s Thursday meeting
where it would discuss monetary policies to combat surging inflation caused by rising commodity prices and
stagnating growth. We recommend that investors remain cautious while adding stocks with a rising RS Rating and
to book profits in names undergoing technical deterioration. - The Stoxx 600 gained 4.7%, finding support at the base of its stage-one consolidation. The index is trading below its
key moving averages. Travel & Leisure, Banking, and Auto stocks gained 8.3%, 7.5%, and 9.5% respectively, while
Mining and Oil stocks dropped 2.4% and 1.3%, respectively. - Among the other major indices, France’s CAC gained 7.1% and Germany’s DAX declined 2.2%. Both indices
continue to trade below their declining 21-DMA, their prior resistance level. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 gained 3.3% and
is trading below all its support levels. - Among the 17 indices we track in Europe, all indices closed in the green. The market conditions remained
unchanged. Fourteen indices are in a Downtrend, two in an Uptrend Under Pressure, and one in a Confirmed
Uptrend. With none of the indices recording a distribution day yesterday, the average distribution day count remains
at 4.0. - Actionable names in the Focus List include Aker Bp (AKEP.NO; AKRBP:NO) and Novo Nordisk (NON.DK;
NOVOB:DC).
Won Europe Today
Yesterday,
- European markets declined for the fourth straight day to close in the red amid concerns about a slowing economy.
The U.S.’s plan to ban energy imports from Russia also weighed on the market as it may further strain the global
crude market. We maintain a cautious view on the overall market as the major indices are trading below their key
moving averages. We recommend a patient approach to adding risk. Continue to focus on ideas with strong
relative strength while reducing exposure to lagging ideas. - The Stoxx 600 fell 0.5% on above average volume. It is trading 11.2% below its 200-DMA and 16% off highs. It has
immediate support at ~$405 (2.4% below). Most sectors were mixed, with Technology closing 2.5% lower, while Oil
& Gas advanced 3.5% based on surging energy prices. - Among the major indices, the U.K.’s FTSE 100, France’s CAC, and Germany’s DAX are all trading below their 200-
DMA and key moving averages. - Among the 17 indices we cover, most closed in the red, with Ireland declining the most, down 2.5%. Two are in an
Uptrend Under Pressure, one in a Rally Attempt, and the remaining 14 are in a Downtrend. The average distribution
day count stands at 4.0. - Actionable names in the Focus List include Aker Bp (AKEP.NO; AKRBP:NO) and Novo Nordisk (NON.DK;
NOVOB:DC).
Won Global View
The U.S. market remains in a Rally Attempt. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq reversed multiple times intraday yesterday before eventually closing lower in heavy volume. Both are still holding above the February 24 low (S&P 500: 4,114; Nasdaq: 12,587), keeping the attempted rally intact. An undercut of these lows will result in the market status shifting back to a Downtrend.
Won Europe Today
We released our European Weekly Summary yesterday. Click here to access the report. Key points from it include:
- It was particularly a bearish week for European markets, which fell the most since March 2020. The Stoxx 600 is in
a Downtrend. The index is now poised for a bear market, trading ~17% off its recent highs, amid widespread
pessimism and negative investor sentiment as stagflation looms. Last week, the index breached support near
~434; it has next support near ~408. - We maintain a cautious view on the overall market as the major indices are trading below their key moving
averages. We recommend a patient approach to adding risk. Continue to focus on ideas showing strong relative
strength while reducing exposure to lagging ideas. - All sectors closed in the red last week. Energy declined the least, while Consumer Cyclical declined the most. On
our rotation chart, Basic Materials, Consumer Staple, and Health Care showed improving short-term momentum
(over four weeks). Utility, Financial, and Transportation stocks continue to show weak trends in short-term
momentum (over four weeks). - European Focus List Update: We added none and removed eight. We removed Watches of Switzerland Group
(WOSG.GB; WOSG:LN), Vinci (DG@F.FR; DG:FP), Schneider Electric (QT@F.FR; SU:FP), Coface (COFA.FR;
COFA:FP), Dnb Bank (DNB.NO; DNB:NO),Yougov (YOU.GB; YOU:LN), Finecobank Spa (FCBK.IT; FBK:IM),
and Richemont N (CFR.CH; CFR:SW). The list currently consists of 13 stocks,overweighted toward Health Care.
Won Global View
The U.S. market remains in a Rally Attempt. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq pulled back sharply, declining 2–3% and closing at the bottom of the session’s range. The next level of price support is along the February 24 low (S&P 500: 4,114.65; Nasdaq: 12,587.88). The market status moves back to a Downtrend if indices undercut the February 24 low.
WON Europe Today
On Friday,
- European markets had a volatile session, closing in the red as investors exited risk assets globally amid escalating
tensions between Russia and Ukraine. The markets focused on rising fuel and commodity prices and their impact
on the economy. We maintain a cautious view on the overall market as major indices are trading below their key
moving averages. We recommend a patient approach to adding risk. Continue to focus on ideas showing strong
relative strength while reducing exposure to lagging ideas. - The Stoxx 600 fell 3.6% on above average volume to close near the March 2021 levels. It is trading below its 200-
DMA and 15% off highs. It has immediate support at ~$408 (3% below). All sectors were in the red. Banks led the
fall, closing 6.7% down. Travel & Leisure followed, declining 4.7%. - Among the major indices, the U.K.’s FTSE, France’s CAC, and Germany’s DAX are all trading below their 200-DMA
and key moving averages. - Among the 17 indices we cover, all closed in the red, with Italy declining the most, down 6.2%. Two are in an
Uptrend Under Pressure, one in a Rally Attempt, and the remaining 14 are in a Downtrend. The Stoxx 600, Belgium,
the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, Luxembourg, and the U.K. were shifted to a Downtrend, while Norway was
shifted to an Uptrend Under Pressure from a Confirmed Uptrend. The average distribution day count stands at 3.5. - Actionable names in the Focus List include Aker Bp (AKEP.NO; AKRBP:NO), Novo Nordisk (NON.DK;
NOVOB:DC), and Oci (OCIO.NL; OCI:NA).
Won Global View
The U.S. market remains in a Rally Attempt. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq bounced into resistance at their declining 21-DMA (S&P 500: 4,396; Nasdaq: 13,760) before pulling back last week. Price action continues to be volatile; however, the Rally Attempt status remains as long as indices hold above February 24 lows (S&P 500: 4,288; Nasdaq: 13,473). While in a Rally Attempt, the market status moves to a Confirmed Uptrend on a follow-through day (+1.7% in volume above the prior day) but back to a Downtrend on an undercut of the February 24 lows.
