Q2 GDP advance estimate released:
The Bureau of Economic Analysis has released its Q2 advance estimate for real GDP at 4.1% y/y, 190bps above the revised Q1 real GDP.
Author: Anuj Kumar Chouhan
Economic Summary
Q1 GDP third estimate revised downward.
As per the third estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Q1 GDP increased 2.0% y/y, 200bps lower than
the second estimate.
Economic Summary
Q1 GDP rate comes in above consensus.
As per the advance estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Q1 GDP increased 2.3% y/y, 300bps higher than
consensus. Median GDP growth rate forecast for 2018 was increased to 2.5% from 2.1%.
Economic Summary
GDP rate above 3% for two consecutive quarters.
As per the third estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Q3 2017 GDP rate grew 3.2% y/y
(consensus was at 3.3%), compared with 3.1% and 3.3% in Q2 2017 and Q3 2017 (second estimate),
respectively. Median GDP growth rate forecast for 2018 was increased from 2.1% to 2.5%.
Economic Summary
Q3 GDP rate beats consensus again.
As per the second estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Q3 2017 GDP rate grew 3.3% y/y,
compared with a 3.1% and 3% growth rate in Q2 2017 and Q3 2017 (advance estimate), respectively. Q3 2017
consensus (advance estimate) stood at 2.5%, while it was 3.2% for the second estimate. GDP growth rate
forecast for 2018 increased from 2.1% to 2.5%.
Economic Summary
Q2 GDP rate revised upward.
As per the third estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Q2 2017 GDP rate grew 3.1% y/y. It
was revised from the second estimate of 3% y/y. The Q2 2017 GDP growth was driven by a growth in personal
consumption expenditure (PCE) and federal government spending.
Economic Summary
Q1 GDP stutters.
In Q1 2017, as per the advance estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the U.S. GDP grew 0.7% y/y, against the consensus estimate of 1%. Weak consumer and federal spending, which account for more than two-thirds of the U.S. economic activity, was by far the biggest anchor in the first quarter. However, some economists largely attributed the weak Q1 2017 GDP rate to recurring issues with the calculation of growth during the January-March period.
Economic Summary
Fed hints at an interest hike in mid-March, as the country’s job market and consumer spending continue to strengthen. Q4 GDP growth stutters. In Q4 2016, the U.S. GDP grew 1.9% y/y, against the consensus estimate of 2.2%. The Q4 GDP remained
unchanged as per the revised estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. A bigger trade deficit, a negative for GDP, was by far the biggest anchor in the fourth quarter. GDP rose 1.6% in 2016, the slowest pace since 2011.
