The U.S. market is in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq staged downside reversals yesterday, adding a fourth and third distribution day, respectively. Both indices must continue holding support along their respective 200-DMA to remain constructive. We will move the market status to an Uptrend Under Pressure should that level break.
Author: Anuj Kumar Chouhan
WON Global View
The U.S. market is in a Confirmed Uptrend.The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq continue to trade constructively above their 200-DMA support, with three and two distribution days, respectively.
WON Global View
The U.S. market is in a Confirmed Uptrend.The S&P 500 and Nasdaq pulled back yesterday, picking up a third and second distribution day, respectively. Overall, the distribution day count still remains low and both indices continue to hold above 200-DMA support. We will be more concerned should distribution begin to cluster, resulting in a break below moving-average support.
Economic Summary
Q4 GDP advance estimate decelerates but slower than expected.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis released its Q4 third estimate for real GDP at 2.6% y/y, beating market expectations
of 2.4%. During the quarter, fixed investment increased at a faster rate while consumer spending remained robust. For
the full year 2018, economy expanded the highest since 2015 at 2.9%, compared with 2.2% in 2017.
WON Global View
The U.S. market is in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq staged upside reversals yesterday, finding support at their respective 10-DMA to close relatively flat for a second straight session. Distribution remains low at two days on the S&P 500 and one on the Nasdaq.
WON Global View
The U.S. market is in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq traded relatively flat yesterday, consolidating in lower volume. Support remains the 200-DMA.
WON Global View
The U.S. market is in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq gapped up into new year-to-date highs yesterday, before pulling back intraday and closing at the lows of the session. Should the indices pullback over the next few days following this churning action, look for support at the 200-DMA to hold.
WON Global View
The U.S. market is in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq continue to trade constructively above their respective 200-DMA with a low number of distribution days. Near-term resistance on the S&P 500 remains at 2,800, while the next level of resistance on the Nasdaq is 7,573.
WON Global View
An 18% rally on the DJIA since December lows, with no 5% pullback, is higher than the 14% average (11% median) leg in a bull market, dating back to 1900. One leg is a 5%+ move in either direction.
A leg of 15% gain immediately following a 15% loss is very rare, occurring only four times prior to the current leg. A ~6% pullback is typical following these v-shaped recoveries.
Earnings estimates continue to come down, with GAAP S&P 500 earnings now expected to decline 2% in Q1 2019.
While the seasonal setup remains strong (Q1 in the third year of a presidency and strong January gains), macro uncertainty combined with the above average rally from lows could soon test our current bullish stance.
WON Global View
The U.S. market is in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 cleared above its 200-DMA, while the Nasdaq touched that level and then reversed to close at the lows of the session, albeit in light volume. Look for the major averages to avoid distribution and for leading ideas to hold above individual support levels should the major averages pull back off current levels.
