The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 60–130bps on lower d/d volume and are trading
2–3% above key support at their 50-DMA (5,976/19,461). The S&P 500 made a new all-time high intraday, and the Nasdaq is 1% off
highs. The distribution day count remains at six on each index, with one expiring on each index after market close on Friday.
Author: Deepashree MC
Won Europe Today
We released our European Weekly Summary yesterday, click here to access the report. Key points from it include:
- European indices rallied last week, with Germany, the U.K., and Norway hitting all-time highs and most sectors posting gains, led by Consumer Cyclical (+4.7%), Financial (+3.9%), and Technology (+3.7%). Transportation and Health Care were the weakest, down ~1.2% each.
- On the rotation graph, Energy, Utility, and Consumer Staples showed strong momentum, while Materials and Consumer Staples steadily improved. Cyclical, Retail, Health Care, and Technology lagged, with Financials and Capital Equipment remaining strong but slowing down.
Won Global View
The U.S. market has been upgraded to a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 was up ~90bps and broke above the downward channel
line on above average volume. It is trading just 1% off highs and forming the right side of a base with immediate support at its rising 50-
DMA (5,973; -1%). The Nasdaq was up 65bps on higher volume and is trading 2% off highs with support at its 50-DMA (19,441; -2%). The
distribution day count stands at six on each index, after one expired on the Nasdaq yesterday after market close.
Won Europe Today
Yesterday,
- European markets closed flat as the new U.S. administration’s inauguration eased immediate tariff fears, which led to the euro and the British pound recording their strongest gains in over a year. However, global uncertainty remains over the administration’s broader tariff plans, which could disrupt trade and fuel inflation. Investors are now focusing on the World Economic Forum in Davos this week, where global leaders will address economic and trade challenges.
- Among key movers on the Stoxx 600, shares of Nemetschek (NEMX.DE; NEM:GR) jumped 10.4% after the company’s FY24 revenue beat estimates, while shares of Siemens Energy (ENRX.DE; ENR:GR) fell 3.4% following a rating downgrade by UBS.
- The Stoxx 600 closed flat. The index was trading above all its key moving averages, with next resistance at its September 2024 high (+0.8%). We recommend a selective approach to adding names on a high-volume breakout or decisive retake of their key moving averages.
- The overall sector performance was positive. Basic Resources (+124bps), Automobiles & Parts (+106bps), and Chemicals (+82bps) were the top gainers, while Oil & Gas (-92bps) and Utility (-74bps) were the top losers.
- Among major indices, France’s CAC 40 closed 0.3% higher. Next resistance is at its September 2024 high (+0.7%). Germany’s DAX 30 rose 0.4% and continued to trade above all its key moving averages, making a new 52-week high. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 registered its fourth consecutive session of gains and ended the session 0.2% higher, making a new 52-week high.
- Eleven of the 16 markets we track closed in the green. Eight are in a Confirmed Uptrend, one in an Uptrend Under Pressure, and seven in a Rally Attempt.
- Italy recorded its second distribution day. The average distribution day count stood at 2.4.
- Of the 30 European Focus List names, 28 ideas are trading above their 200-DMA, while24 ideas are trading above their 50-DMA.
- Actionable names in the Focus List include 3i Group (III.GB; III:LN), Hermes International (RMS.FR; RMS:FP), Adidas (ADSX.DE; ADS:GR), and Nemetschek (NEMX.DE; NEM:GR).
Won Global View
The U.S. market remains in an Uptrend Under Pressure. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 2–3% last week and regained their
respective 50-DMA (5,968, 19,415). Look for indices to consolidate above their moving average support and attempt to form the right side
of their bases. The distribution day count remains at six and seven, respectively, with one day expiring on each index this week.
U.S. Economic Summary
Q3 GDP records biggest yearly growth, 30bps above estimates: Per the final estimate, the U.S. economy
grew 3.1% y/y in Q3, 30bps above estimates and higher than 3% y/y growth in Q2. Personal spending grew
the fastest since Q1 2023, driven by a 5.6% surge in consumption goods and a strong spending on
services. Government consumption rose around 5.1%. Fixed investments along with imports and exports
rose during the period, while residential fixed investment slowedc
Won Europe Today
On Friday,
- European markets ended the week on a strong note, buoyed by optimism over China’s economic performance and declining bond yields. With the new U.S. President’s inauguration today, investors are focused on potential policy announcements this week, particularly regarding trade tariffs, which could have significant implications for Europe’s economic outlook and global market stability.
- Among key movers on the Stoxx 600, shares of Saab (SAAB.SE; SAABB:SS) fell 5.3%, while shares of Avolta (AVOL.CH; AVOL:SW) surged 8.4% as the Swiss duty-free retailer announced a share buyback program worth $220M for future cancellation.
- The Stoxx 600 recorded the third consecutive session of gains and ended the session 0.7% higher. Next resistance is at its September 2024 high (+0.8%). We recommend a selective approach to adding names on a high-volume breakout or decisive retake of their key moving averages.
- The overall sector performance was positive. Basic Resources (+205bps), Chemicals (+127bps), and Food & Beverages (+116bps) were the top gainers, while Health Care (-105bps) was the only loser.
- Among major indices, France’s CAC 40 gained 1% and continued to trade above all its key moving averages. Next resistance is at its September 2024 high (+1%). Germany’s DAX 30 closed 1.2% higher. It is above all its key moving averages and at its 52-week high. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 extended its upward momentum and surged 1.3%, making a new 52-week high.
- The U.K. and Austria were shifted to a Confirmed Uptrend from a Rally Attempt after the indices reclaimed their previous rally highs. Finland was also shifted to a Confirmed Uptrend from an Uptrend Under Pressure as the index reclaimed its previous rally high.
- Fifteen of the 16 markets we track closed in the green. Eight are in a Confirmed Uptrend, one in an Uptrend Under Pressure, and seven in a Rally Attempt. The average distribution day count stood at 2.2.
- Of the 30 European Focus List names, 28 ideas are trading above their 200-DMA, while24 ideas are trading above their 50-DMA.
- We added Hermes International (RMS.FR; RMS:FP) to the European Focus List after the stock broke out of a stage-one consolidation base.
- Actionable names in the Focus List include Rheinmetall (RHMX.DE; RHM:GR), Adidas (ADSX.DE; ADS:GR), and Hermes International (RMS.FR; RMS:FP).
Won Global View
The U.S. market remains in an Uptrend Under Pressure. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq declined ~20–90bps on lower d/d volume. The S&P 500 has resistance at its 50-DMA (5,962), with the first level of support at its 21-DMA (5,929). The Nasdaq breached support at its 50-DMA (19,386), with the next level of support at its 100-DMA (18,669). The distribution day count remains at six and seven, respectively.
Won Europe Today
We released our Weekly Global Laggards Report today. Click here to access the report. The stocks highlighted in this report are laggards relative to their own domestic markets. We recommend that they be underweighted as they may be vulnerable to further downside risk and underperformance. European stocks include Leg Immobilien (LEGX.DE; LEG:GR) and AP Moller Maersk B (DSB.DK; MAERSKB:DC).
Won Europe Today
Yesterday,
- European markets had their strongest session since August 2024, lifted by lower-than-expected inflation data from
the U.S. and the U.K. Falling European government bond yields added momentum to equities, with the benchmark
10-year bond yield declining to 2.53%, ending a 10-day increase. In the U.S., softer core inflation data and stable
overall figures fueled optimism for another Federal Reserve rate cut, further boosting investor sentiment. - Among significant movers on the Stoxx 600, shares of the homebuilding firm Vistry (VTY.GB; VTY:LN) were up
almost 16% after the company maintained its FY24 profit guidance. - The Stoxx 600 rebounded after recording losses for three consecutive sessions and closed 1.3% higher. The index
retook all its key moving averages, including its 50-, 100-, and 200-DMA, intraday. Near-term resistance is expected
at its December 13 high (516; +0.2%). We recommend a selective approach to adding names on a high-volume
breakout or decisive retake of their key moving averages. - Most sectors traded in positive territory, with Automobiles (+188bps) and Chemicals (+175bps) leading the gains.
Oil and Gas (-22bps) was the sole outlier. - Among major indices, France’s CAC 40 closed 0.7% higher and retook its 10- and 100-DMA on higher volume.
Overhead resistance is at its 200-DMA (+1.7%). Germany’s DAX 30 extended its positive momentum for a second
straight session after bouncing 1.7% off its 10-DMA. The index was making new 52-week highs and trading above
all its key moving averages. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 recovered its losses from the past three sessions and closed
0.6% higher, reclaiming all key moving averages, including its 50-, 100-, and 200-DMA. - Germany was shifted to a Confirmed Uptrend from an Uptrend Under Pressure as the index reclaimed its previous
rally high. - Sweden was shifted to a Confirmed Uptrend from a Rally Attempt as the index recorded a follow-through day.
- All the 16 indices we track closed in the green. Five indices are in a Confirmed Uptrend, two in an Uptrend Under
Pressure, and nine in a Rally Attempt. The average distribution day count stood at two. - Of the 29 European Focus List names, 26 ideas are trading above their 200-DMA, while 21 ideas are trading above
their 50-DMA. - Actionable names in the Focus List include Netcompany Group (NGP.DK; NETC:DC), Pandora (PND.DK;
PNDORA:DC), Adidas (ADSX.DE; ADS:GR), Nemetschek (NEMX.DE; NEM:GR), and Relx (REL.GB; REL:LN).
