The U.S. market remains in an Uptrend Under Pressure. The S&P 500 gapped up 1.89% and closed marginally below its 50-DMA
(5,958). The Nasdaq gapped up 2.48% and, in the process, retook all its key moving averages. The next level of resistance for the S&P
500 is at its 50-DMA, while for the Nasdaq, it is at its recent high (~20,000). The distribution day count on each index stands at six and
seven after one expired on each index following yesterday’s close.
Author: Deepashree MC
Won Global View
The U.S. market remains in an Uptrend Under Pressure. The S&P 500 gained ~11bps, while the Nasdaq closed 23bps lower on lower
d/d volume. The S&P 500 continues to test support at its 100-DMA (5,824), while the Nasdaq has next support around the top of its prior
base (18,670), which coincides with its 100-DMA. The distribution day count remains elevated at seven and eight, respectively, with one
set to expire on each index after the close today.
Won Europe Today
Yesterday,
- European markets closed almost flat, as rising government bond yields and the prospect of new U.S. tariffs weighed on investor sentiment. While U.S. producer inflation data came in lower than expected, neither European equities nor Wall Street managed to sustain gains, both reversing into negative territory by the close. Investors will monitor the U.S. CPI data scheduled to release later today.
- Among significant movers on the Stoxx 600, shares of JD Sports Fashion (JD.GB; JD/:LN) slipped more than 6% after the company lowered its annual profit forecasts. Shares of the British online retail group Ocado (OCDO.GB; OCDO:LN) jumped more than 9% following faster-than-expected retail sales growth in Q4 FY24.
- The Stoxx 600 held steady after having lost around 1.5% in the past two sessions. Near-term resistance is at its 50-DMA, while support is at its December 20 low (503; -1.1%). We recommend a selective approach to adding names on a high-volume breakout or decisive retake of their key moving averages.
- Among sectors, Banks (+108bps) and Automobile (+93bps) gained the most, while Health Care (-178bps) and Retail (-75bps) led the losses.
- Among major indices, France’s CAC 40 found support at its 10-DMA and closed 0.2% higher, with resistance at its 100-DMA (+0.1%). Germany’s DAX 30 closed 0.7% higher, retaking its 10- and 21-DMA on higher volume. It traded above all its key support levels. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 broke below its 200-DMA and closed 0.3% lower. The index was trading below all its key moving averages.
- Denmark recorded its second distribution day.
- Eleven of the 16 indices we track closed in the green. Three indices are in an Uptrend Under Pressure, three in a Confirmed Uptrend, and 10 in a Rally Attempt. The average distribution day count stood at two.
- Of the 29 European Focus List names, 25 ideas are trading above their 200-DMA, while 18 ideas are trading above their 50-DMA.
- Actionable names in the Focus List include Netcompany Group (NGP.DK; NETC:DC), Pandora (PND.DK; PNDORA:DC), Talanx Aktgsf (TLXX.DE; TLX:GR), Technogym (TGYM.IT; TGYM:IM), Schneider Electric (QT@F.FR; SU:FP), and Relx (REL.GB; REL:LN).
Won Global View
The U.S. market remains in an Uptrend Under Pressure. Indices posted upside reversals yesterday, with the S&P 500 closing 16bps
higher and the Nasdaq recovering from much of its intraday losses to close 38bps lower. The S&P 500 is testing support at its 100-DMA
(5,822), while the Nasdaq has next support around the top of its prior base (18,670). The distribution day count remains elevated at seven
and eight, respectively.
Won Europe Today
We released our European Weekly Summary yesterday. Click here to access the report. Key points from it include:
- European markets had a strong week overall, though Friday’s session saw major indices fall below their 100- and 200-DMA. Market breadth remains limited, with ~55% of the Stoxx 600 stocks trading below their 50-DMA and an increase in the number of stocks breaking below their bases compared with the previous week.
- Health Care outperformed, with five of the six leading stocks on the Stoxx 600 last week belonging to the sector. Overall, we remain cautious on the European markets and recommend that investors reduce positions in names breaking below logical levels of support and revisit the ideas when they set up a base.
Won Europe Today
On Friday,
- European markets ended the week lower, recording their sharpest decline in three weeks, as inflation concerns resurfaced following a U.S. jobs report showing unemployment fell to 4.1%. Rising government bond yields further dampened investor sentiment. Meanwhile, mixed inflation and economic data from the Eurozone fueled expectations of a potential rate cut by the ECB in its January meeting.
- Among significant movers in the Stoxx 600, shares of the Danish medical equipment manufacturer, Ambu B (AMB.DK; AMBUB:DC) were up more than 17% after the company released its preliminary Q1 FY25 results and raised its annual outlook.
- The Stoxx 600 closed 0.8% lower, breaching its 100-and 200-DMA on a lower volume. Immediate support is at its 21- and 10-DMA, followed by its 50-DMA (-0.3%). We recommend a selective approach to adding names on high volume breakout or decisive retake of key moving averages.
- Most sectors closed in the negative territory. Food and Beverage (-240bpsbps) and Retail (-203bps) declined the most. Automobiles (+46bps) was the sole outlier.
- Among major indices, France’s CAC 40 slid almost 0.8% and broke below its 100-DMA. Near-term support is at its 10-DMA, followed by its 21-DMA. Germany’s DAX 30 declined almost 0.5% on higher volume, closing marginally above its 21-DMA. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was down 0.9%, closing above its 100-DMA, expecting some near-term support at this level.
- Finland was shifted to an Uptrend Under Pressure from a Confirmed Uptrend as the index breached its 21-DMA.
- France. Finland, and Italy recorded their first distribution day while Germany recorded its fifth.
- Thirteen of the 16 indices we track closed in the red. Three are in an Uptrend Under Pressure, three in a Confirmed Uptrend, while 10 are in a Rally Attempt. The average distribution day count stood at two.
- Of the 30 European Focus List names, 25 ideas are trading above their 200-DMA while 18 ideas are trading above their 50-DMA.
- Actionable names in the Focus list include Adidas (ADSX.DE; ADS:GR), Technogym (TGYM.IT, TGYM:IM), Schneider Electric (QT@F.FR; SU:FP), and Relx (REL.GB; REL:LN).
Won Global View
The U.S. market remains in an Uptrend Under Pressure. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq declined 1.9% and 2.3%, respectively, last week.
The S&P 500 fell back below the 50-DMA (5,952) after a brief retake and is testing support at the 100-DMA (5,820). The Nasdaq closed
below its 50-DMA (19,319) for the first time since mid-September 2024, leaving next support around the top of the prior base (18,670).
Won Europe Today
We released our Weekly Global Laggards Report today. Click here to access the report. The stocks highlighted in this report are laggards relative to their own domestic markets. We recommend that they be underweighted as they may be vulnerable to further downside risk and underperformance. European stocks include WPP (WPP.GB; WPP:LN), Rockwool B (ROC.DK; ROCKBC:IX), Catena (CATE.SE; CATE:SS), and Deutsche Lufthansa (LHAX.DE; LHA:GR).
Won Global View
The U.S. market remains in an Uptrend Under Pressure. The S&P 500 gained 16bps and continues to trade below its 50-DMA (5,952)
resistance, while the Nasdaq declined 6bps, testing support at its 50-DMA (19,307). The distribution day count remains elevated at six and
eight, respectively.
Won Europe Today
Yesterday,
- European markets closed lower as surging bond yields, driven by lower expectations for rate cuts in Europe and the U.S., weighed on sentiment. In addition, weak German data, including unexpected fall in industrial orders and retail sales, along with declining Eurozone confidence in December, highlighted persistent economic challenges in the region.
- Among key movers on the Stoxx 600, shares of Novo Nordisk (NON.DK; NOVOB:DC) rose 2.8%, while Siemens Energy (ENRX.DE; ENR:GR) fell 5%. Shares of Shell (SHEL.GB; SHEL:LN) declined 1.68% on lower LNG production outlook and weaker trading forecasts for Q4 FY24.
- The Stoxx 600 closed 0.2% lower, breaking below its 100-DMA. Next support is at its 21-DMA, followed by its 50-DMA.We recommend a selective approach to adding names on a high-volume breakout or decisive retake of their key moving averages.
- The overall sector performance was negative. Retail (-161bps), Technology (-140bps), and Travel & Leisure (-140bps) were the top losers, while Health Care (+77bps) and Financial Services (+49bps) gained the most.
- Among major indices, France’s CAC 40 fell 0.5% and tested support at its 100-DMA. Next support is at its 21-DMA (-1%). Germany’s DAX 30 closed flat. It continued to trade above all its key moving averages, with immediate resistance at its 52-week high (+0.5%). The U.K.’s FTSE 100 also ended the session flat, with resistance at its 2024 high (+1%).
- Twelve of the 16 markets we track closed in the red. Four are in a Confirmed Uptrend, two in an Uptrend Under Pressure, and 10 in a Rally Attempt. The average distribution day count stood at 2.5.
- Of the 30 European Focus List names, 28 ideas are trading above their 200-DMA, while22 ideas are trading above their 50-DMA.
- Actionable names in the Focus List include Adyen (ADYE.NL; ADYEN:NA), Adidas (ADSX.DE; ADS:GR), Relx (REL.GB; REL:LN), and Technogym (TGYM.IT; TGYM:IM).
