Q4 GDP in line with estimates: Per the second estimate, the U.S. economy grew 2.3% y/y in Q4 in line with estimates and lower than a 3.1% y/y growth in Q3. Personal spending grew 4.2% y/y, the most since Q1 2023, driven by a 6.1% y/y rise in spending for goods and a 3.3% y/y spending on services. Government
consumption rose around 2.9% y/y, higher than a 2.5% y/y rise in Q3. Fixed investments along with imports and exports contracted during the period, while residential fixed investment recorded a growth of 5.4% y/y, higher than initial expectations
Author: Deepashree MC
Won Europe Today
On Friday,
- European stock markets surged following reports that Germany’s political leaders reached a major agreement on an increase in state borrowing. The deal, backed by Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz and the Greens, aims to boost defense and infrastructure spending, fueling optimism about long-term economic growth. However, analysts cautioned that the rapid market rally and German bond selloff may slow down as investors weigh the challenges ahead.
- Among key movers on the Stoxx 600, shares of Kering (KER.FR; KER:FP) fell ~11% following the appointment of Demna Gvasalia as Gucci’s new artistic director. Meanwhile, shares of BMW (BMW.DE; BMW:GR) declined 0.7% after the company reported a 37% y/y profit decline in 2024 due to weaker demand from China.
- The Stoxx 600 closed 1.1% higher. It was bouncing off its 50-DMA, with immediate resistance at its short-term moving averages. We recommend a selective approach to adding names on a high-volume breakout or decisive retake of their key moving averages.
- Overall, sector performance was positive. Banks (+224bps), Basic Resources (+188bps), Technology (+180bps), and Financial Services (+157bps) were the top gainers.
- Among major indices, France’s CAC 40 closed 1.1% higher. It was bouncing off its 50-DMA, with immediate resistance at its short-term moving averages. Germany’s DAX 30 gained 1.9% and reclaimed its short-term moving averages. It was trading above all its key moving averages, with next resistance at its all-time high (+1.8%). The U.K.’s FTSE 100 surged 1.1% and retook its 50-DMA. Immediate resistance is at its short-term moving averages.
- All 16 markets we track closed in the green. Three indices are in a Confirmed Uptrend, 10 in an Uptrend Under Pressure, two in a Rally Attempt, and one in a Downtrend.
- The U.K. and the Netherlands were shifted to a Rally Attempt from a Downtrend. The average distribution day count stood at 4.25.
- Of the 21 European Focus List names, 20 ideas are trading above their 200-DMA, while12 ideas are trading above their 50-DMA.
- Actionable names in the Focus List include Games Workshop (GAW.GB; GAW:LN), Relx (REL.GB; REL:LN), and Technogym (TGYM.IT; TGYM:IM).
Won Global View
The U.S. market is in a Rally Attempt. Despite the heavy sell-off last week, the Nasdaq held above its recent low (17,238) for three
sessions and is open for a follow-through day as soon as today. A follow-through day is a move of +1.7% or more on volume higher than
the prior session. The Rally Attempt on the Nasdaq resets if the low (17,238) is undercut. The S&P 500 set a new low (5,504) last week
and is only on its first day off that low and will be open for a follow-through, if the low is held, as early as Wednesday.
Won Europe Today
We released our Weekly Global Laggards Report today. Click here to access the report. The stocks highlighted in this report are laggards relative to their own domestic markets. We recommend that they be underweighted as they may be vulnerable to further downside risk and underperformance. European stocks include Adidas (ADSX.DE; ADS:GR), Mips (MIPS.SE; MIPS:SS), Drax Group (DRX.GB; DRX:LN), and Allianz Technology Trust (ATT.GB; ATT:LN).
Won Global View
The U.S. market remains in a Downtrend. The S&P 500 declined 139bps yesterday and made a new lower low, resetting the rally
attempt count. Immediate support remains at the 5,500 level. The Nasdaq was down 196bps but did not make a new low, registering the
second day of a Rally Attempt. Key resistance for both the indices remains at their respective 200-DMA (5,738/18,413).
Won Europe Today
Yesterday,
- European markets rebounded from recent losses as optimism improved following Ukraine’s agreement to a 30-day ceasefire with Russia, with negotiations from the U.S. Market sentiment was further lifted by cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation data. The CPI rose 0.2% in February, bringing the seasonally adjusted annual inflation rate to 2.8%.
- Among significant movers on the Stoxx 600, shares of the Danish pharmacy group Zealand Pharma (ZEA.DK; ZEAL:DC) soared 38% following announcement of a $5.3B collaboration deal with the Swiss health care group Roche (ROC.CH). On the flip side, shares of Puma (PUMX.DE; PUM:GR) fell almost 20% after the company posted softer-than-expected Q4 FY24 results and downgraded its FY25 guidance for sales and profit.
- The Stoxx 600 bounced off support at its 50-DMA, closing 0.8% higher. It has near-term resistance at its 10- and 21-DMA. We recommend a selective approach to adding names on a high-volume breakout or decisive retake of their key moving averages.
- Among sectors, Banks (+156bps), Financial Services (+154bps), and Energy (+150bps) were the top gainers, while Retail (-288bps) and Mining (-47bps) led the losses.
- Among major indices, France’s CAC 40 recovered from its three consecutive sessions of losses. The index closed 0.6% higher after finding support at its February 5 low. Near-term resistance is at its 10- and 21-DMA.Germany’s DAX 30 retook its 21-DMA, closing 1.5% higher. The index was facing resistance at its 10-DMA. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 closed in the green after recording losses for six straight sessions. The index was facing resistance at its 50-DMA.
- The U.K. and the Netherlands recorded Day 1 of their Rally Attempt, while Denmark made a new low.
- Twelve of the 16 indices we track closed in the green. Three indices are in a Confirmed Uptrend, 10 in an Uptrend Under Pressure, and three in a Downtrend. The average distribution day count stood at 4.4.
- Of the 24 European Focus List names, 18 ideas are trading above their 200-DMA, while 10 ideas are trading above their 50-DMA.
- Actionable names in the Focus List include Moncler (MONC.IT; MONC:IM), 3i Group (III.GB; III:LN), Hermes (RMS.FR; RMS:FP), Relx (REL.GB; REL:LN), Adyen (ADYE.NL; ADYEN:NA), and Technogym (TGYM.IT; TGYM:IM).
Won Global View
The U.S. market remains in a Downtrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 49bps and 122bps, respectively, and registered the first day
of a Rally Attempt. Key resistance for both indices remains at the 200-DMA (5,737/18,410).
Won Europe Today
Yesterday,
- European markets extended their losses for the fourth straight session on concerns over U.S. trade policies impacting global growth. Investor sentiment weakened after the U.S. doubled tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum imports to 50%, with the possibility of additional auto tariffs next month if Canada does not ease its own trade measures. Eurozone was not directly affected, but market volatility increased, weighing on equities.
- Among significant movers on the Stoxx 600, shares of British Airways owner International Airlines Group (IAG.GB; IAG:LN) fell 6.1%. Shares of the Swiss skincare group Galderma (GALD.CH; GALD:SW) gapped down 6.6% after the company sold around 6.3% stake worth $1.3B.
- The Stoxx 600 declined 1.7% and closed almost in line with its 50-DMA, marking its longest losing streak since December 2024. We expect the index to find near-term support at this level. We recommend a selective approach to adding names on a high-volume breakout or decisive retake of their key moving averages.
- All sectors closed in the red. Travel and Leisure (-339bps), Health Care (-324bps), and Retail (-296bps) led the losses.
- Among major indices, France’s CAC 40 failed to reclaim its near-term support levels and closed 1.3% lower. Next support is at its 50-DMA (-0.8%). Germany’s DAX 30 broke below its 21-DMA, marking its third session of losses. Support is at its February 12 low, followed by its 50-DMA.The U.K.’s FTSE 100 declined for a sixth session, closing 1.2% lower and breaking below its 50-DMA.
- Italy and Belgium recorded their third distribution day, while Finland and Sweden logged in their sixth. Norway increased its distribution day count to seven.
- The U.K. and the Netherlands were downgraded to a Downtrend from an Uptrend Under Pressure.
- Belgium, Germany, and Switzerland were shifted to an Uptrend Under Pressure from a Confirmed Uptrend as the indices breached their key near- to mid-term support levels.
- All the 16 indices we track closed in the red. Three indices are in a Confirmed Uptrend, 10 in an Uptrend Under Pressure, and three in a Downtrend. The average distribution day count stood at 4.6.
- Of the 24 European Focus List names, 17 ideas are trading above their 200-DMA, while 10 ideas are trading above their 50-DMA.
- Actionable names in the Focus List include Moncler (MONC.IT; MONC:IM), Safran (SGM.FR; SAF:FP), Relx (REL.GB; REL:LN), and Technogym (TGYM.IT; TGYM:IM).
Won Global View
The U.S. market remains in a Downtrend. The S&P 500 declined 76bps yesterday and continues to trend downward on above average
volume. Next support is around the 5,500 level (-1%). The Nasdaq fell 18bps on above average volume. Next support is around the 17,000
level (-3%).
Won Europe Today
We released our European Weekly Summary yesterday. Click here to access the full report. Key points from it include:
- European markets eased slightly, ending a 10-week winning streak as investors remained cautious amid ongoing global trade tensions between the U.S. and other nations. Most indices are nearing their short-term moving averages but still above their 50-DMA.
- Market leadership in Europe is tightening, with the number of breakouts declining to 10, the lowest since December 2024. The number of stocks near pivot points have also declined sharply, reaching the lowest level since December 2022.
