The U.S. market remains in a Downtrend. The S&P 500 declined 76bps yesterday and continues to trend downward on above average
volume. Next support is around the 5,500 level (-1%). The Nasdaq fell 18bps on above average volume. Next support is around the 17,000
level (-3%).
Author: Deepashree MC
Won Europe Today
We released our European Weekly Summary yesterday. Click here to access the full report. Key points from it include:
- European markets eased slightly, ending a 10-week winning streak as investors remained cautious amid ongoing global trade tensions between the U.S. and other nations. Most indices are nearing their short-term moving averages but still above their 50-DMA.
- Market leadership in Europe is tightening, with the number of breakouts declining to 10, the lowest since December 2024. The number of stocks near pivot points have also declined sharply, reaching the lowest level since December 2022.
Won Global View
The U.S. market remains in a Downtrend. The S&P 500 declined ~2.7% yesterday and broke below support at 5,700. Next support is
around 5,400 (-4%). The Nasdaq fell 4% on above average volume and broke below the 18,000 level. Next support is around 17,000 (-
3%).
Won Europe Today
On Friday,
- European markets closed lower, capping a volatile week as investors reacted to shifting U.S. tariff policies. The U.S. granted temporary exemptions on nearly half of the Canadian and the Mexican imports, adding to market uncertainty. In addition, weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data dampened sentiment. Meanwhile, with China still facing a 20% export duty from the U.S., the Eurozone’s luxury sector underperformed, with Burberry Group (BRBY.GB; BRBY:LN), Richemont (CFR.CH; CFR:SW), and Kering (KER.FR; KER:FP) declining 3–6%.
- Among significant movers on the Stoxx 600, shares of the Belgium-based electric power company Elia Group (ELI.BE; ELI:BB) rose more than 17% after the company reported better-than-expected full-year results.
- The Stoxx 600 snapped its 10-week positive streak, closing almost 0.5% lower, in line with its 21-DMA. Next support is at its February 12 high (547; -1%). We recommend a selective approach to adding names on a high-volume breakout or decisive retake of their key moving averages.
- Among sectors, Telecommunications (+203bps), Utility (+160bps), and Food and Beverage (+131bps) were the top gainers, while Mining (-160bps) and Automobile (-139bps) lagged the most.
- Among major indices, France’s CAC 40 breached its 10-DMA on lower volume. The index closed almost 1% lower, with near-term support at its 21-DMA. Germany’s DAX 30 closed 1.7% lower. The index was still trading above all its key support levels. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 closed flat, with support at its 200-DMA (-1.5%).
- Denmark was downgraded to a Downtrend from an Uptrend Under Pressure as the index breached all its moving averages. Portugal was upgraded to a Confirmed Uptrend from a Rally Attempt after the index recorded a follow-through day.
- Six of the 16 indices we track closed in the green. Seven indices are in a Confirmed Uptrend, eight in an Uptrend Under Pressure, and one in a Downtrend. The average distribution day count stood at 4.6.
- Of the 25 European Focus List names, 23 ideas are trading above their 200-DMA, while 12 ideas are trading above their 50-DMA.
- We removed Swedish Orphan Biovitrum (SOBI.SE; SOBI:SS) from our European Focus List after the stock breached its 200-DMA on high volume.
- Actionable names in the Focus List include Games Workshop (GAW.GB; GAW:LN), Technogym (TGYM.IT; TGYM:IM), and 3i Group (III.GB; III:LN).
Won Global View
The U.S. market was shifted to a Downtrend. The S&P 500 declined ~3.1% last week despite staging an upside reversal and closing
positive on Friday. It breached its 200-DMA (5,733) for the first time since November 2023, before closing just above. The Nasdaq fell
3.5% and closed the week below the 200-DMA (18,400) for the first time since October 2023. A follow-through day (FTD) for each index
now becomes first possible on Wednesday, March 12, assuming no further lows are made.
Won Europe Today
We released our Weekly Global Laggards Report today. Click here to access the report. The stocks highlighted in this report are laggards relative to their own domestic markets. We recommend that they be underweighted as they may be vulnerable to further downside risk and underperformance. European stocks include Prysmian (PRY.IT; PRY:IM), BP (BP.GB; BP/:LN), Drax Group (DRX.GB; DRX:LN), Nyfosa (NYFO.SE; NYF:SS), and Infrastructure Wireless Italiane (INW.IT; INW:IM).
Won Global View
The U.S. market has shifted to a Rally Attempt. The S&P 500 declined ~180bps on lower volume and closed just above its 200-DMA
(5,730). Next support is near July highs of 5,670. The Nasdaq declined ~260bps on higher volume, closed below the 200-DMA (18,392),
and has support near August highs of 18,018. It held above Tuesday’s low, indicating day three of the attempted rally.
Won Europe Today
Yesterday,
- European stocks rebounded after sharp losses in the previous session. German markets led the recovery as the government moved to ease borrowing limits to boost defense and economic growth. Optimism also grew over potential relief from U.S. tariffs on Canada and Mexico.Investors now turn their attention to the European central bank’s meeting scheduled today, where a widely expected 25bps rate cut could shape market sentiment.
- Among key movers on the Stoxx 600, shares of construction and defense stocks surged, with Heidelberg Materials (HEI.IT; 1HEI:IM) up 17.5% and Hochtief (HOT.DE; HOT:GR) rising 15.5%. In addition, shares of Bayer (BAYN.DE; BAYN:GR) jumped 4.1% after the company signaled a potential rebound in earnings next year, while shares of Novo Nordisk (NON.DK; NOVOB:DC) gained 2.5% on news of a reduction in the price of its weight-loss drug Wegovy.
- The Stoxx 600 rose 0.9% and reclaimed its 10-DMA. Immediate resistance is at its recent high, while support is at its 21-DMA (-0.6%). We recommend a selective approach to adding names on a high-volume breakout or decisive retake of their key moving averages.
- Among sectors, Banks (+354bps), Chemicals (+252bps), Basic Resources (+251bps), and Technology (+227bps) were the top gainers, while Utility (-230bps) and Food & Beverages (-185bps) lagged the most.
- Among major indices, France’s CAC 40 bounced off its 21-DMA and advanced 1.6%. It is now above all its key moving averages. Immediate resistance is at its recent high (+0.4%). Germany’s DAX 30 also bounced off its 21-DMA and surged 3.4% on high volume. It is now above all its key moving averages and close to its all-time high. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 traded flat. The index has immediate support at its short-term moving averages.
- Fourteen of the 16 markets we track closed in the green. Eight are in a Confirmed Uptrend, seven in an Uptrend Under Pressure, and one in a Rally Attempt.
- Of the 26 European Focus List names, 25 ideas are trading above their 200-DMA, while18 ideas are trading above their 50-DMA.
- We removed Pandora (PND.DK; PNDORA:DC) from our European Focus List due to technical deterioration. The stock breached multiple levels of support, including its 100-DMA, and looks poised to lag the broader market.
- Actionable names in the Focus List include Moncler (MONC.IT; MONC:IM), Lonza Group (LONN.CH; LONN:SW), and 3i Group (III.GB; III:LN).
Won Global View
The U.S. market remains in a Downtrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up ~110–145bps on lower volume yesterday. The S&P 500
rebounded from 200-DMA support (5,728), while the Nasdaq closed above its 200-DMA (18,385). Indices have next support near
July/August highs (5,670/18,018) after their 200-DMA support. Immediate resistance is at their declining 10-DMA (5,914/18,863), 1–2%
above current levels.
Won Europe Today
Yesterday,
- European stocks pulled back from record highs, following a global selloff as new U.S. tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China took effect, raising fears of an economic slowdown and potential levies on Europe. China retaliated with fresh tariffs, hitting luxury stocks, which fell 2–4%. Meanwhile, the U.S. decision to pause military aid to Ukraine heightened expectations of increased European defense spending, adding to market uncertainty.
- Among key movers on the Stoxx 600, shares of Hermes (RMS.FR; RMS:FP), Kering (KER.FR; KER:FP), and LVMH (LVMH.FR; MC:FP) fell 2–4% after China imposed retaliatory tariffs of 10–15% following fresh U.S. duties. Meanwhile, shares of Thales (CSF.FR; HO:FP) rose 2.5%, led by better-than-expected 2024 earnings.
- The Stoxx 600 was testing support at its 21-DMA after it declined 2.1%on above average volume, marking its biggest single-day fall since August 2024. Next support is at its 50-DMA (-3.3%). We recommend a selective approach to adding names on a high-volume breakout or decisive retake of their key moving averages.
- Overall sector performance was negative. Automobile & Parts (-545bps), Oil & Gas (-411bps), Travel & Leisure (-392bps), and Banks (-375bps) were the top losers. Food & Beverages (+120bps) and Utility (+10bps) were the sole gainers.
- Among major indices, France’s CAC 40 declined 1.9% and breached its short-term moving averages on higher volume. Next support is at its 50-DMA (-3%). Germany’s DAX 30 pulled back 3.5% from its all-time high and breached its 10-DMA. It is now testing support at its 21-DMA and has next support at its 50-DMA. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 recorded a loss after five consecutive sessions of gains and closed 1.4% lower. Immediate support is at its short-term moving averages.
- All markets we track closed in the red. Eight are in a Confirmed Uptrend, seven in an Uptrend Under Pressure, and one in a Rally Attempt.
- France was shifted to an Uptrend Under Pressure from a Confirmed Uptrend after the index recorded its fifth distribution day and breached its 21-DMA.
- The Stoxx 600 was shifted to an Uptrend Under Pressure from a Confirmed Uptrend after the index breached its 21-DMA.
- Finland was shifted to an Uptrend Under Pressure from a Confirmed Uptrend after the index recorded its fifth distribution day and breached its 21-DMA.
- Sweden was shifted to an Uptrend Under Pressure from a Confirmed Uptrend after the index recorded its sixth distribution day and breached its 21-DMA.
- Italy was shifted to an Uptrend Under Pressure from a Confirmed Uptrend after the index recorded its third distribution day and breached its 21-DMA.
- Norway recorded its seventh distribution day, while Germany and the Netherlands recorded their fifth distribution day. Denmark and Switzerland recorded their fourth distribution day. The average distribution day stood at 4.46.
- Of the 27 European Focus List names, 26 ideas are trading above their 200-DMA, while 21 ideas are trading above their 50-DMA.
- We removed Vimian Group (VIMG.SE; VIMIAN:SS) from our European Focus List after the stock broke below its 200-DMA. The stock is trending lower, with no reasonable support nearby.
- We removed Wise A (WISE.GB; WISE:LN) from our European Focus List as the stock breached support at the 50-DMA (GBX 1,064) and the bottom of its stage-one consolidation base (GBX 955).
- We removed EQT (EQT.SE; EQT:SS) from our European Focus List as the stock declined ~6% and closed below its 200-DMA (SEK 329.7).The stock had a failed breakout and is trading more than 15% off highs.
- Actionable names in the Focus List include Moncler (MONC.IT; MONC:IM), Talanx Aktgsf (TLXX.DE; TLX:GR), Technogym (TGYM.IT; TGYM:IM), and Adidas (ADSX.DE; ADS:GR).
