The U.S. market remains in a Rally Attempt. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were marginally down last week, reversing from sharp losses to
close near the highs of the week. The S&P 500 broke and then retook the 100-DMA (5,313), while the Nasdaq closed back above March
highs of ~16,540 after testing the 200-DMA (15,892). Indices have immediate resistance at their 21-DMA (5,400/17,159), followed by the
50-DMA (5,446/17,544), which is 2–5% above current levels. We will shift the market to a Confirmed Uptrend if a follow-through day
occurs (+1.7% or more on higher d/d volume without recent lows being undercut).
Author: Deepashree MC
Won Europe Today
We released our Weekly Global Laggards Report today. Click here to access the report. The stocks highlighted in this report are laggards relative to their own domestic markets. We recommend that they be underweighted as they may be vulnerable to further downside risk and underperformance. European stocks include Volvo B (VOBF.SE; VOLVB:SS), Wpp (WPP.GB; WPP:LN), Lvmh (LVMH.FR; MC:FP), Hermes International (RMS.FR; RMS:FP), Moncler (MONC.IT; MONC:IM), and Diageo (DGE.GB; DGE:LN).
Won Global View
The U.S. market has been shifted to a Rally Attempt. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up ~2.3–2.9% on lower d/d volume. The S&P 500
reclaimed its 100-DMA (5,310) and closed just above that level, while the Nasdaq closed above resistance near March highs of ~16,540.
Indices have immediate resistance at their 10-DMA (5,341/16,828), followed by the 21-DMA (5,406/17,201), 2–3% above current levels.
We will shift the market to a Confirmed Uptrend if a follow-through day (+1.7% or more on higher d/d volume) occurs.
Won Europe Today
Yesterday,
- European markets recorded a positive session, marking their best performance since November 2023. Global stocks rebounded after a weak start earlier this week. The banking sector surged nearly 3%, achieving its largest single-day gain in a year, after having dropped more than 11% in the past five days. The ECB policymakers stated the existing possibility of a rate cut to control inflation.
- Among notable stock moves, shares of Novo Nordisk (NON.DK; NOVOB:DC) registered their worst intraday decline since 2022, falling 6.7%, after the company provided a weaker full-year profit outlook.
- The Stoxx 600 closed more than 1.5% higher, recording its highest single-day gain in the past nine months. The index reclaimed support at its 200-DMA, but remained below the 500-point mark. Next resistance is at its declining 10-DMA (495.9; +1.5%). We recommend that investors trim positions in stocks that have breached their logical levels of support. Book profit in names that are breaching their 21- and 50-DMA on high volume.
- Most sectors closed positively. Banks (+285bps), Oil and Gas (+238bps), and Financial Services (+214bps) led the gains. Health Care (-28bps) was the only sector that lagged.
- Among major indices, France’s CAC 40 rebounded strongly, gaining almost 2%, after posting consecutive losses in the past few sessions. It inched closer to its declining 10-DMA resistance (+1.2%). The index has been trading below all its key moving averages. Germany’s DAX 30 bounced off its 200-DMA, advancing 1.5% on slightly lower volume. Next resistance is at its 10-DMA (+2.1%). The U.K.’s FTSE 100 closed 1.7% higher, retaking its 100-DMA. Near-term resistance is at its 21-DMA (8,197.7; +0.3%).
- France, Sweden, Switzerland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain recorded Day 1 of their Rally Attempt, while rest of the markets logged in Day 2 of their Rally Attempt.
- All the 16 indices we track closed in the green, except Denmark. All markets remain in a Downtrend.
- Actionable names in the Focus List include Biotage (BIOT.SE; BIOT:SS), Hemnet Group (HEMN.SE; HEM:SS), Siegfried ‘R’ (SFZN.CH; SFZN:SW), Lonza Group (LONN.CH; LONN:SW), Relx (REL.GB; REL:LN), and Rolls Royce Holdings (RR.GB; RR/:LN).
Won Global View
The U.S. market is in a Downtrend. The S&P500 and Nasdaq had a downside reversal and declined ~75–105 bps on lower d/d volume. The S&P 500 hit resistance at its 100-DMA (5,308), while the Nasdaq is testing resistance near March highs of ~16,540. A follow-through day (+1.7% on higher d/d volume) can occur as early as Friday if the indices stay above Monday lows. However, the Rally Attempt count will be reset if those lows are undercut.
O’Neil Consumer/Retail Weekly
Consumer Staples (XLP): The index has bounced off its 50-DMA on good volume. It held on to its key support levels despite a weak
market owing to its defensive nature. RS line has started to trend upwards with improvement in technical ratings because of recent
outperformance of the index.
Won Europe Today
Yesterday,
- European markets closed positively, recovering from disappointing losses in the past two days amid a global market rebound. The U.S. markets pared some gains and Japan’s Nikkei bounced back after dropping more than 12% in the previous sessions.
- Investors were relieved after the Fed policymakers eased recession concerns. However, they stressed the need for central bank rate cuts to improve the economic downturn.
- The Stoxx 600 rose 30bps after recording its heaviest three-day decline. The index inched closer to its 200-DMA resistance (+1.1%). We recommend that investors trim positions in stocks that have breached their logical levels of support. Book profit in names that are breaching their 21- and 50-DMA on high volume.
- Among sectors, Technology (+157bps), Health Care (+72bps), and Oil and Gas (+46bps) led the gains, while Banks (-67bps) and Automobiles (-60bps) lagged the most.
- Among major indices, France’s CAC 40 extended its losses for a fourth straight session, closing 27bps lower. The index was making new year-to-date lows. Near-term support is at its November 2023 low (7,050; -1.1%). Germany’s DAX 30 closed flat on lower volume and continued to test resistance at its 200-DMA (+0.4%). The U.K.’s FTSE 100 gained 23bps, rebounding from a three-day losing momentum. Resistance is at its 100-DMA (+1.4%).
- The U.K., the Stoxx 600, Germany, Denmark, Ireland, Finland, Norway, Austria, Belgium, and the Netherlands recorded Day 1 of their Rally Attempt.
- Ten of the 16 indices we track closed in the green. All markets remain in a Downtrend.
- Actionable names in the Focus List include Hemnet Group (HEMN.SE; HEM:SS), Siegfried ‘R’ (SFZN.CH; SFZN:SW), Swissquote ‘R’ (SQN.CH; SQN:SW), and Premier Foods (PFD.GB; PFD:LN).
Won Global View
The U.S. market is in a Downtrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up ~100bps each on lower volume. The S&P 500 has immediate
resistance at its 100-DMA (5,308), while the Nasdaq faces resistance near March highs (~16,540). A follow-through day (+1.7% on higher
d/d volume) can occur as early as Friday if the indices stay above Monday lows.
Won Europe Today
We released our European Weekly Summary yesterday. Click here to access the report. Key points from it include:
- Most European markets have weakened after a brief rally, breaching key logical levels of support after recent recession fears spurred in the U.S. post a slowdown in employment. Look for the indices to hold/retake long-term support levels, including their 200-DMA.
- Among weakening sectors, Technology, Financial, and Consumer Cyclical lagged the most, with a decline of ~4.5% each. Health Care remained in the best quadrant, exhibiting positive short-term momentum, with Financial and Consumer Cyclical joining in later.
Won Global View
The U.S. market is in a Downtrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq declined ~3–3.5% on heavy volume, breaking below price support near March highs. Indices are trading below their 100-DMA (5,307/16,877) and have immediate support at their 200-DMA (5,011/15,825), ~2– 3% below current levels
