The U.S. market was shifted to a Rally Attempt. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 67bps and 87bps, respectively, marking Day 3 of
the rally attempt and opening the window for a follow-through day (+1.7% on higher d/d volume). The S&P 500 reclaimed its 10-DMA
(5,664), with next resistance at the 21-DMA (5,707), while the Nasdaq remains below its 10-DMA (17,653).
Author: Deepashree MC
Won Europe Today
Yesterday,
- European shares bounced back after hitting a two-month low in the previous session, as markets prepared for the upcoming April 2 deadline for U.S. reciprocal tariffs. The White House is likely to announce 20% tariffs on a wide range of imports, a move that could escalate global trade tensions and dampen investor sentiment.
- Among key movers on the Stoxx 600, shares of Bavarian Nordic (BAV.DK; BAVA:DC) rose 2.3% after the company received FDA approval for a freeze-dried version of its mpox and smallpox vaccine. Meanwhile, shares of Airbus (AIRS.FR; AIR:FP) gained 3.2% following reports that the company delivered around 70 aircraft in March, up from 40 in February.
- The Stoxx 600 booked a gain of 1% after four consecutive sessions of losses. Immediate resistance is at its 10-DMA (+1%), followed by its 50-DMA (+1.3). We recommend a selective approach to adding names on a high-volume breakout or decisive retake of their key moving averages.
- Overall sector performance was positive. Technology (+175bps), Banks (+132bps), Basic Resources (+131bps), and Telecommunications (+118bps) were the top gainers. There were no losers.
- Among major indices, France’s CAC 40 closed 1.1% higher. Immediate resistance is at its 10-DMA (+1.6%), which has crossed below its 50-DMA (+1.9%). Germany’s DAX 30 jumped 2% and reclaimed its 50-DMA. Immediate resistance is at its 10-DMA, followed by its 21-DMA. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 gained 0.6% and tested resistance at its 21- and 50-DMA. Support is at its 100-DMA (-2.2%).
- All 16 markets we track closed in the green. One is in a Confirmed Uptrend, eight in an Uptrend Under Pressure, two in a Rally Attempt, and five in a Downtrend.
- Of the 16 European Focus List names, 15 ideas are trading above their 200-DMA, while eight ideas are trading above their 50-DMA.
Won Global View
The U.S. market remains in a Downtrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 38bps and 87bps, respectively, and registered Day 2 of the
Rally Attempt. Immediate resistance for indices remains at the 10-DMA (5,662; 17,664), followed by the 21-DMA (5,710; 17,932). A followthrough day can occur as early as Thursday.
Won Global View
The U.S. market was shifted to a Downtrend. Indices undercut prior lows yesterday, resetting the rally attempt count. The S&P 500 was
up 55bps and has immediate support near 5,500 and key resistance at its 200-DMA (5,760). The Nasdaq was down 14bps. It is testing
support near 17,240 and has key resistance at its 21-DMA (17,979). However, indices staged upside reversals and closed in the top half of
the trading range, indicating Day 1 of the attempted rally. A follow-through day (gain of 1.7% or more on higher d/d volume) can occur on
Thursday at the earliest.
Won Europe Today
We released our European Weekly Summary yesterday. Click here to access the report. Key points from it include:
- European markets are pulling back from their recent highs, with most falling below their 21- and 50-DMA. Portugal is the only market still trading above its key levels. Italy, Spain, and Sweden are below their 21-DMA but holding above the 50-DMA. Denmark hit a new 52-week low, while Sweden and the Netherlands fell below their 200-DMA.
- Most sectors ended in the red. Utility stood out, gaining 3.2% despite the weak market. Energy and Retail posted modest gains of 0.3–0.4%, while Financials declined slightly. Consumer Staple and Technology fell around 1%, while the remaining sectors fell 2–3%, with Health Care performing the worst.
Won Europe Today
On Friday,
- European markets closed lower as higher-than-expected U.S. core inflation of 2.8% fueled investor concerns about a more restrictive monetary policy outlook. Adding to the pressure, the announcement of fresh U.S. tariffs on foreign automakers continued to weigh on global sentiment. Meanwhile, weaker-than-expected inflation data from Spain and France failed to offset caution in the broader markets.
- Among key movers on the Stoxx 600, shares of Deutsche Bank (DKBX.DE) declined 2.9% after the company extended the term of its CEO Christian Sewing and its two top executives exited in a leadership revamp aimed at supporting its ongoing turnaround. Meanwhile, shares of Ubisoft (UBI.FR; UBI:FP) fell 1.8% after paring early gains on the company’s plans to create a new unit for three of its major game franchises.
- The Stoxx 600 declined 0.8% and broke below its 50-DMA. Next support is at its 100-DMA (-2.7%). We recommend a selective approach to adding names on a high-volume breakout or decisive retake of their key moving averages.
- Among sectors, Utility (+175bps), Telecommunications (+103bps), and Food & Beverages (+61bps) were the top gainers, while Travel & Leisure (-285bps), Basic Resources (-202bps), Banks (-195bps), and Technology (-191bps) led the losses.
- Among major indices, France’s CAC 40 extended its downward movement and closed 0.9% lower. Next support is at its 100-DMA (-2.9%). Germany’s DAX 30 fell 0.2% and tested support at its 50-DMA. Next support is at its 100-DMA (-6%). The U.K.’s FTSE 100 closed flat. The index tested support at its 50-DMA. Next support is at its 100-DMA (-2.6%).
- Fifteen of the 16 markets we track closed in the red. Three indices are in a Confirmed Uptrend, eight in an Uptrend Under Pressure, two in a Rally Attempt, and three in a Downtrend.
- Norway, Austria, and Italy were shifted to an Uptrend Under Pressure from a Confirmed Uptrend after the indices breached their 21-DMA.
- Finland recorded its seventh distribution day. The average distribution day count stood at 4.54.
- Of the 17 European Focus List names, 16 ideas are trading above their 200-DMA, while9 ideas are trading above their 50-DMA.
Won Global View
The U.S. market is in a Rally Attempt. Indices are fading after bouncing into moving average resistance. The S&P 500 is pulling back
from its 200-DMA (5,759), while the Nasdaq is declining from its 21-DMA (18,048). The next level of support is at the recent low of ~5,504
on the S&P 500 and ~17,238 on the Nasdaq. The market status will move back to a Downtrend should both indices undercut their recent
lows (S&P 500: 5,504, Nasdaq: 17,238). Until then, the window for a follow-through day (FTD) remains open.
Won Europe Today
We released our Weekly Global Laggards Report today. Click here to access the report. The stocks highlighted in this report are laggards relative to their own domestic markets. We recommend that they be underweighted as they may be vulnerable to further downside risk and underperformance. European stocks include Henkel (HEN3X.DE; HEN3:GR), Schneider Electric (QT@F.FR; SU:FP), Lvmh (LVMH.FR; MC:FP), Beiersdorf (Xet) (BEIX.DE; BEI:GR), Dsm Firmenich (DSFR.NL; DSFIR:NA), Tamburi Investment Partners (TIPS.IT; TIP:IM), and EasyJet (EZJ.GB; EZJ:LN).
Won Global View
The U.S. market is in a Rally Attempt. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq declined ~30–50bps, closing below all key moving averages. The
window for a follow-through day (FTD) remains open unless indices undercut last week’s intraday lows (5,505/17,238).
Won Europe Today
Yesterday,
- European markets closed lower as weakness in Technology and Health Care stocks weighed on sentiment, with investors remaining cautious ahead of the U.S. tariffs set to take effect next week. However, Energy stocks gained, supported by a 1% rise in crude prices. Meanwhile, an unexpected drop in the U.K.’s inflation led to a decline in government bond yields.
- Among significant movers on the Stoxx 600, shares of the Finland-based IT group Tietoevry (TIE1.FI; TIETO:FH) gapped down more than 7% following a downgrade by Morgan Stanley, which weighed on the sector.
- The Stoxx 600 declined 0.7% and breached its 10- and 21-DMA.Near-term support is at its March 14 low, followed by its 50-DMA (-0.5%). We recommend a selective approach to adding names on a high-volume breakout or decisive retake of their key moving averages.
- Among sectors, Energy (+158bps) and Utility (+48bps) saw the strongest gains, while Automobile (-254bps) and Technology (-201bps) led the losses.
- Among major indices, France’s CAC 40 fell ~1% and ended the day near its 50-DMA, after breaching its near-term moving averages. Germany’s DAX 30 broke below support at its 21-DMA and closed 0.8% lower. Support is at its 50-DMA (-2.5%). The U.K.’s FTSE 100 extended its gains for a second session, driven by a series of positive economic releases. The index traded above all its moving averages, with support at its 10- and 21-DMA.
- The Stoxx 600, France, Ireland, Spain, and Belgium recorded a distribution day each. France increased its distribution day count to seven.
- Both Sweden and Denmark made a new low. Denmark was shifted to a Downtrend from a Rally Attempt.
- Twelve of the 16 indices we track closed in the red. Six indices are in a Confirmed Uptrend, six in an Uptrend Under Pressure, two in a Rally Attempt, and two in a Downtrend. The average distribution day count stood at 4.5.
- Of the 19 European Focus List names, 17 ideas are trading above their 200-DMA, while nine ideas are trading above their 50-DMA.
- We removed Ferrari (RACE.IT; RACE:IM) from the European Focus List as the stock broke below some of its key support levels.
- Actionable names in the Focus List include Games Workshop (GAW.GB; GAW:LN) and 3i Group (III.GB; III:LN).
