The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq advanced 10–20bps and are just below their 10-DMA
(5,214/16,305). Both indices remain at or within 1–2% of their all-time highs. Support for the indices is at the 21-DMA (5,179/16,222),
followed by the rising 50-DMA (5,070/15,951). The distribution day count stands at four and seven, respectively.
Author: Deepashree MC
O’Neil Consumer/Retail Weekly
Consumer Staples (XLP): The index is testing support at its 21-DMA. It has been on a strong run since retaking 200-DMA back in
January 2024. However, RS line continues to be in a downtrend with the worst possible A/D Rating of E as the sector has been
underperforming the broader market in 2024.
Won Europe Today
We released our European Weekly Summary yesterday. Click here to access the report. Key points from it include:
- European markets added ~60bps and gained for the tenth consecutive week. The Stoxx 600 and 12 other indices
are in a Confirmed Uptrend. All major indices closed the first quarter of the year strongly, with the Stoxx 600 up 7%,
the CAC 40 up 8.7%, and the DAX up 10.3%. Expectations of rate cuts are driving market sentiment. The Stoxx 600
held on to its 10-DMA and has been trading along it since the end of January. - On our rotation graph, Cyclical, Capital Equipment, Retail, Financial, and Basic Material have been showing strong
improvement in their short-term momentum. Tech, Energy, Utility, Staples, and Health Care have shown a decline
in their short-term momentum.
Won Global View
The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 declined ~70bps on higher d/d volume, registering its fourth distribution
day, while the Nasdaq was down ~90bps on lower d/d volume. Both indices remain at or within 1–2% of their all-time highs. The S&P 500
has immediate support at its 21-DMA (5,176), followed by its 50-DMA (5,063). The Nasdaq is trading right at its 21-DMA (16,217), with the
next level of support at its 50-DMA (15,934). The distribution day count on the indices stands at four and eight, respectively, with one
expiring on the Nasdaq today after the close.
Won Europe Today
On Thursday,
- European markets closed in the green with major indices near an all-time high. All major indices had a strong first
quarter with the Stoxx 600 up 7%, CAC40 up 8.7%, and DAX up 10.3%.On a sector level, Banks, Oil & Gas, and
Basic Resources led the gains while Utilities underperformed. - We recommend adding risk in stocks that are part of leading industry groups and are breaking out of proper bases
with a strong and rising RS line. - The Stoxx 600 closed 0.18% higher, making new highs. The index has been trading along its rising 10-DMA since
late January and showing positive momentum. Support levels: 21-DMA (1.6% below), 50-DMA (3.7% below), 100-
DMA (6.3% below), and 200-DMA (8.9% lower). - Among major indices, France’s CAC and Germany’s DAX are near their all-time highs. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 is
near its 52-week high. All indices are trading above all their key moving averages. - Most indices we track closed in the green. Spain led the gains and was up 1.65%. Eleven indices are in a
Confirmed Uptrend, four are in a Rally Attempt, and one is in a Downtrend. The average distribution day count is
currently at 2.5. - Actionable names in the Focus List include Moncler (MONC.IT; MONC:IM), Nemetschek (NEMX.DE; NEM:GR),
IMCD Group (IMCD.NL; IMCD:NA), Alfa Laval (ALF.SE; ALFA:SS), Straumann Holdings (STMN.CH; STMN:SW),
Partners Group (PGHN.CH; PGHN:SW), and Sage Group (SGE.GB; SGE:LN).
Won Global View
The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 declined 20bps, while the Nasdaq was up ~10bps. Both indices remain
at or within 1% of their all-time highs. Short-term support for both indices remains at the 10-DMA (5,217/16,328), followed by the rising 21-
DMA (5,173/16,215). The distribution day count on the indices is at three and eight, respectively, with one expiring on the Nasdaq this
week.
Won Global View
The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. Last week, indices closed mixed, with the S&P 500 rising 0.4% and the Nasdaq
declining marginally. Both indices remain at or within 1% of their all-time highs. Short-term support for both indices remains at the 10-DMA
(5,212/16,313), followed by the rising 21-DMA (5,166/16,197). The distribution day count on the indices remains at four and eight,
respectively, with one expiring on each this week.
U.S. Economic Summary
Q4 GDP final estimate 20bps above consensus: As per the final estimate, the U.S. economy grew 3.4% on an annualied basis in Q4 2023. The figure was 20bps above the second estimate and was above market expectations of 3.2% growth. The increase reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, state and local government spending, non-residential fixed investment, federal government spending, and residential fixed investment. However, these gains were partly offset by a decrease in private inventory investment.
Won Europe Today
Yesterday,
- European markets continued to move higher into fresh highs. Volumes are muted on the rally days and with most
indices extended from the near-term moving averages, we are due for a slight pullback. Value has started leading
growth in Europe as we have started seeing short-term momentum fading in Technology and Staples stocks while
Mining and Financials are gaining strength. Hence, we recommend that investors book profits in extended names
that have started breaking their near-term support levels and displaying a change of character. - Among sectors, Retail stocks led the rally, gaining 250bps. Swedish apparel retailer Hennes & Mauritz (HMBF.SE;
HMB:SS) gained over 15% yesterday after reporting strong profit in Q1 FY24. Travel and Leisure stocks slumped
235bps, making it the worst performing sector in the region. FL-rated Flutter Entertainment was down 8.3% after
the NCAA President urged states with legalized gaming to ban prop bets on college athletes. - Most indices are exhibiting constructive technical action and are in a Confirmed Uptrend. All three major indices had
a positive session with the DAX30 leading gains at 49bps, followed by CAC40 at 25bps while the FTSE 100 closed
flat with a positive bias. - Of the 16 indices we track in Europe, Denmark, Ireland, and Sweden closed in the red with the latter two recording
a distribution day each. This has brought the average count to 3.3. - Actionable names in the Focus List are Adidas (Xet) (ADSX.DE; ADS:GR), Alfa Laval (ALF.SE; ALFA:SS), IMCD
Group (IMCD.NL; IMCD:NA), Nemetschek (NEMX.DE; NEM:GR), Partners Group (PGHN.CH; PGHN:SW), Sage
Group (SGE.GB; SGE:LN), Straumann Holdings (STMN.CH; STMN:SW), TBC Bank Group (TBCG.GB; TBCG:LN),
and Universal Music Group (UNMG.NL; UMG:NA).
Won Global View
The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 86bps and 51bps, respectively, as they recovered
early losses in the last hour of trading. Short-term support for both indices remains at the 10-DMA (5,202/16,298), followed by the rising
21-DMA (5,157/16,178). The distribution day count on the indices remains at four and eight, respectively.
