Author: Deepashree MC

Won Europe Today

Posted on by Deepashree MC

Yesterday,

  • European markets declined 95bps, falling below their 10-DMA, on hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data. The CPI rose 0.3% y/y in January, above the 0.2% y/y rise in December 2023. The latest data indicates that inflation is proving to be stickier than expected, as economists had forecasted a 0.2% y/y inflation rate for January, and also significantly reduces the possibility of rate cuts in March and May. We continue to expect the index to consolidate near its highs, while its rising 21-DMA (44bps below) and its 50-DMA (1.1% below) catch up.
  • Performance across sectors was weak. Yield-dependent Technology was the worst-affected, declining 261bps,
    followed by Travel and Leisure (-155bps) and Mining (-132bps). The Stoxx 600 Technology index, which had been making new highs, saw an intraday dip below its 10-DMA before recovering to close at its near-term support level. It continued to trade more than 3% above its rising 21-DMA. A break below this level could see the index form a base between its 21-DMA and its rising 50-DMA (7.1% below). Mining stocks continued to make lower-lows and lowerhighs, with stiff resistance at its declining 21- and 10-DMA.
  • The broader market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. Yesterday’s session was considered as a distribution day,
    taking the total distribution day count to four. We recommend that investors add stocks on a decisive break out of proper bases on earnings. Book profit/cut losses in names which have broken below their key support levels on earnings.
  • All the three major indices closed in the red. Germany’s DAX 30, France’s CAC 40, and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 fell
    95bps, 84bps, and 81bps, respectively. The CAC was testing support at its 10-DMA. The DAX declined to its rising 21-DMA intraday, before bouncing back and closing 29bps higher. The index was still trading 32bps below its 10- DMA. The FTSE has declined below all its key moving averages. Support is expected at 7,485 (36bps below), where the index had consolidated in mid- to late-November and for a short while in mid-January, followed by 7,410 (1.4% below) and 7,324 (2.5% below).
  • All the 16 indices we track closed in the red. With eight indices recording a distribution day each, the average
    distribution day count increased to 5.6.
  • Actionable names in the Focus List are Ferrari (RACE.IT; RACE:IM), Hermes (RMS.FR; RMS:FP), Recordati
    (REC.IT; REC:IM), Sanlorenzo (SANL.IT; SL:IM), Technogym (TGYM.IT; TGYM:IM), Universal Music Group
    (UNMG.NL; UMG:NA), and Vat Group (VACN.CH; VACN:SW).

Won Global View

Posted on by Deepashree MC

The U.S. market is in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq declined 9bps and 30bps, respectively, on lower d/d volume. Immediate support for the indices is along their respective 10-DMA (4,966/15,698), followed by the 21-DMA (4,907/15,478). The distribution day count stands at three and two, respectively.

Won Europe Today

Posted on by Deepashree MC

We released our European Weekly Summary yesterday. Click here to access the report. Key points from it
include:

  • European markets had another flattish week. The markets took a pause for the second week, with marginal moves on a weekly basis. Corporate earnings were mixed last week.
  • On our rotation graph, Technology is leading the pack. Consumer Cyclical is also showing improvement in shortterm momentum. Retail, Basic Materials, Utility, and Energy are showing a decline in their short-term momentum.

Won Global View

Posted on by Deepashree MC

The U.S. market is in a Confirmed Uptrend. Indices gained 1–2% last week and continue to trade constructively above short-term moving averages. The Nasdaq is testing resistance along the 16,000 level, while support for both indices is at their respective 10-DMA (4,953/15,643), followed by the 21-DMA (4,895/15,431). The distribution day count stands at three and two, respectively.

Won Europe Today

Posted on by Deepashree MC

On Friday,

  • European markets declined 9bps, falling below its 10-DMA, amid earnings. Ubisoft (UBI.FR; UBI:FP), Kongsberg Gruppen (KOG.NO; KOG:NO), and Coloplast (COL.DK; COLOB:DC) were the top movers, gaining 13.8%, 10.5%, and 9.7%, respectively, on strong earnings. Sweco (SWEB.SE; SWECB:SS), L’Oreal (OR@F.FR; OR:FP), and Verbund (VERB.AT; VER:AV) were the worst performers, losing 13.7%, 7.6%, and 5.4%, respectively, on weak results.
  • With Friday’s move, the index is now trading 60bps below its all-time high. It has good support at its rising 21-DMA (479.30; -1.4%), followed by its 50-DMA (476.02; -1.8%). It had consolidated near its 21-DMA in the second half of December 2023. As the broader market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend, we recommend that investors add positions in names on decisive breakouts out of proper bases on earnings. Book profit/cut losses in names which have broken below their key support levels on earnings.
  • Sectoral performance was mixed. Technology, Travel & Leisure, Health Care, and Auto gained 123bps, 80bps,
    78bps, and 49bps, respectively. Food and Beverage (-162bps), Utility (-100bps), and Mining (-97bps) were among the worst laggards.
  • All the three major indices closed in the red. The U.K.’s FTSE 100, France’s CAC 40, and Germany’s DAX 30 fell 30bps, 24bps, and 22bps, respectively. The CAC and the DAX were testing support at their respective 10-DMA as the indices consolidate near their new highs. The FTSE continued its losing streak for the third consecutive session, declining below its 50-DMA. The index was testing support at its 21-DMA (-3bps).
    Ten of the 16 indices we track closed in the red. With Austria and Ireland recording a distribution day each, the
    average distribution day count stands at five. We shifted Austria to an Uptrend Under Pressure from a Confirmed Uptrend as the index recorded its sixth distribution day.
  • Actionable names in the Focus List are Bae Systems (BA.GB; BA/:LN), Banco Bpm (BP.IT; BAMI:IM), Ferrari
    (RACE.IT; RACE:IM), Inditex (IND.ES; ITX:SM), Recordati (REC.IT; REC:IM), Rolls-Royce (RR.GB; RR/:LN), Straumann (STMN.CH; STMN:SW), Universal Music Group (UNMG.NL; UMG:NA), and Vat Group (VACN.CH; VACN:SW).

Won Europe Today

Posted on by Deepashree MC

We released our Weekly Global Laggards Report today. Click here to access the report. The stocks highlighted in this
report are laggards relative to their own domestic markets. We recommend that they be underweight as they may be
vulnerable to further downside risk and underperformance. Stocks in Europe include Epiroc (EPIA.SE; EPIA:SS), Citic Sainsbury (SBRY.GB; SBRY:LN), and Infineon (IFXX.DE; IFX:GR).

Won Global View

Posted on by Deepashree MC

The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 6bps and 24bps, respectively, and continue to trade constructively above their key moving averages. The next area of resistance for the Nasdaq is around 15,900. Immediate support for the indices is seen along their respective 10-DMA (4,937/15,566), followed by the 21-DMA (4,882/15,375). The distribution day count stands at three and two, respectively.

Won Europe Today

Posted on by Deepashree MC

Yesterday,

  • European markets had a weak session with 14 of the 16 indices that we track closing in the red. However, most
    leading indices continue to hold on to their rising 10-DMA and show no signs of technical deterioration. We
    recommend that investors add risk coming out of proper bases in leading industry groups.
  • The Stoxx 600 was down 0.2% and is testing support at its rising 10-DMA. Among other major indices, France’s CAC 40 is testing support at its rising 10-DMA, which coincides with December 2023 highs. Germany’s DAX fell 0.6% and is testing support at December 2023 highs. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 is testing support at its rising 10-DMA.
  • Among sectors, Oil & Gas and Telecom stocks lost more than a percent. Banks fell close to a percent. Healthcare stocks were flat while technology and auto stocks gained 0.5%.
  • Austria, Finland, France, and Germany recorded distribution days. Actionable names in the Focus List include
    Brunello Cucinelli (BC.IT; BC:IM), Bae Systems (BA.GB; BA/:LN), Vat Group (VACN.CH; VACN:SW),
    Novo Nordisk ‘B’ (NON.DK; NOVOB:DC), Trigano (TRI.FR; TRI:FP), Nemetschek (Xet) (NEMX.DE; NEM:GR), Saab B (SAAB.SE; SAABB:SS), Ypsomed Holding R (YPSN.CH; YPSN:SW), Rolls-Royce Holdings (RR.GB; RR/:LN), and Ferrari (Mil) (RACE.IT; RACE:IM).

Won Europe Today

Posted on by Deepashree MC

Yesterday,

  • European markets had a positive session as 14 of the 16 indices that we track closed in the green. Most of the
    leading indices have found support at their rising 10-DMA. We recommend that investors add risk in stocks that are coming out of proper bases in leading industry groups.
  • The Stoxx 600 gained 0.6% and found support at its rising 10-DMA. Its distribution day count stands at four. Among other major indices, France’s CAC 40 formed an upside reversal, trending upward along its rising 10-DMA.
    Germany’s DAX and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 bounced off their respective rising 10-DMA.
  • Among sectors, Oil & Gas gained 2%, while Banks and Health Care rose 0.5%. Utility declined 1%, while Food &
    Beverage traded flat. Belgium and Switzerland closed in negative territory, with Switzerland recording its fifth distribution day.
  • Actionable names in the Focus List include Brunello Cucinelli (BC.IT; BC:IM), Bae Systems (BA.GB; BA/:LN), Vat Group (VACN.CH; VACN:SW), Novo Nordisk ‘B’ (NON.DK; NOVOB:DC), Trigano (TRI.FR; TRI:FP), Nemetschek (Xet) (NEMX.DE; NEM:GR), and Saab B (SAAB.SE; SAABB:SS).