The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 declined 0.8% on higher d/d volume and registered its third
consecutive distribution day, while the Nasdaq declined 1.2% on lower d/d volume and breached its 21-DMA. Immediate support for the
S&P 500 is seen along its 21-DMA (4,692), followed by July 2023 high of ~4,607. Support for the Nasdaq is seen at July 2023 high of
~14,447, followed by its 50-DMA ($14,104). The distribution day count for both indices stands at five.
Author: Deepashree MC
Won Europe Today
We released our European Weekly Summary today. Click here to access the report. Key points from it include:
- Last week, European markets had a positive close for the seventh consecutive week.
- The Stoxx 600 closed 12.7% higher for the year and is currently in a Confirmed Uptrend. Sentiments that interest
rates have peaked drove the year-end rally.
Won Global View
The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq declined 0.6% and 1.6%, respectively, on higher d/d
volume, registering a distribution day each. Immediate support for the indices is along their respective 21-DMA (4,691/14,717). The
distribution day count for both indices stands at four and five, respectively, with the expiry of one day on the S&P 500 yesterday after
close.
Won Europe Today
On Friday,
- European markets ended marginally in the green. The year-end rally was led by expectations that the interest rates
have peaked. The Stoxx 600 closed the year up 12.7%. Banks and Insurance gained the most while Real Estate led
the declines. - We recommend adding risk in stocks that are a part of leading industry groups and are breaking out of proper
bases with a strong and rising RS line. - The Stoxx 600 closed 0.20% higher. The index is working on a flat consolidation base and sits at its pivot. Support
for the index: 21-DMA (1.3% below), 200-DMA (4.5% below), and 50-DMA (4.7% lower). Next levels of resistance:
480 (current levels), 485 (1.3% above), 490 (2.3% above), and 495 (3.4% above). - Among major indices, Germany’s DAX, France’s CAC, and the U.K.’s FTSE are trading above all their key moving
averages. - Among the 16 indices we track, closes were mostly in the green. 13 indices are in a Confirmed Uptrend, two in an
Uptrend Under Pressure, and one in a Rally Attempt. - Actionable names in the Focus List include ASM International (ASIN.NL; ASM:NA), Universal Music Group
(UNMG.NL; UMG:NA), Ferrari (Mil) (RACE.IT; RACE:IM), Recordati Indua.Chimica (REC.IT; REC:IM), Adidas (Xet)
(ADSX.DE; ADS:GR), Nemetschek (Xet) (NEMX.DE; NEM:GR), Safran (SGM.FR; SAF:FP), Swedish Orphan
Biovitrum (SOBI.SE; SOBI:SS), Trigano (TRI.FR; TRI:FP), Siegfried ‘R’ (SFZN.CH; SFZN:SW), and Beiersdorf
(Xet) (BEIX.DE; BEI:GR).
Won Global View
The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 advanced for a ninth consecutive week, gaining 0.3%, while the
Nasdaq paused after eight weeks of gains, trading just slightly lower. Immediate support for the indices is seen along their respective 10-
DMA (4,754/14,975), followed by the 21-DMA (4,686/14,714). The S&P 500 has resistance near January 2022 high of ~4,800, while the
Nasdaq has resistance near the 15,320 level. Indices each picked up a fourth distribution day on Friday. The distribution day count for both
indices is four, with one set to expire on the S&P 500 this week.
European Weekly Summary
Key points from this week’s report:
Please refer to the attached PDF for the full report.
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Last week, European markets had a positive close for the seventh consecutive week. The Stoxx 600 closed 12.7% higher for the year and is currently in a Confirmed Uptrend. Sentiments that interest rates have peaked drove the year-end rally.
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We recommend adding risk in leading industry groups that are breaking out of proper bases with strong and rising RS lines.
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Sectors closed marginally on either side. Capital Equipment and Health Care gained the most while Transportation and Utility led the decline.
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On our rotation graph, Financials, Capital Equipment and Retail are showing improvement in short-term momentum. Energy and Technology are showing decline in their short-term momentum.
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European Focus List Update: Actionable names include Asm International (ASIN.NL; ASM NA), Universal Music Group (UNMG.NL; UMG NA), Ferrari (Mil) (RACE.IT; RACE IM), Recordati Indua.Chimica (REC.IT; REC IM), Adidas (Xet) (ADSX.DE; ADS GR), Nemetschek (Xet) (NEMX.DE; NEM GR), Safran (SGM.FR; SAF FP), Swedish Orphan Biovitrum (SOBI.SE; SOBI SS), Trigano (TRI.FR; TRI FP), Siegfried ‘R’ (SFZN.CH; SFZN SW), and Beiersdorf (Xet) (BEIX.DE; BEI GR).
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Addition: Sika (SIKA.CH)
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Removal: None
U.S. Economic Summary
Q3 GDP final estimate 30bpV below consensus: As per the third estimate, the U.S. economy grew 4.9% on an annualized basis in Q3 2023. The figure was 30bps below the second estimate and was below market expectations of 5.2% growth. The downward revision was mainly due to revision in consumer spending. Overall, the increase in real GDP reflected increases in consumer spending, private inventory investment, exports, state and local government spending, federal government spending, residential fixed investment, and non-residential fixed investment.
Won Global View
The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed almost flat near 52-week highs. Immediate support
for the indices is seen along their respective 10-DMA (4,740/14,924), followed by the 21-DMA (4,677/14,682). The S&P 500 has resistance
near January 2022 high of ~4,800, while the Nasdaq has resistance near the 15,320 level. The distribution day count for both indices
remains at three.
Won Europe Today
We released our Weekly Global Laggards Report today. Click here to access the report. The stocks highlighted in this
report are laggards relative to their own domestic markets. We recommend that they be underweighted as they may be
vulnerable to further downside risk and underperformance. European stocks include Choc Lindt & Spruengli (LISP.CH;
LISP:SW).
Won Global View
The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq advanced ~10bps and continue to grind higher. Immediate
support for the indices is seen along their respective 10-DMA (4,731/14,886), followed by the 21-DMA (4,667/14,641). The S&P 500 has
resistance near January 2022 high of ~4,800, while the Nasdaq has resistance near the 15,320 level. The distribution day count for both
indices remains at three.
