Author: Gaghan

WON Europe Today

Posted on by Gaghan

Ishares DJ Stoxx600 ( EXSA.DE )

 

On Friday,

  • European markets declined amid sentiment over tighter monetary policies and developing tensions between Russia and Ukraine. We recommend a patient approach to adding risk. Continue to focus on high quality ideas with an improving RS line while reducing exposure to ideas breaking below their long-term support levels.
  • The Stoxx 600 declined 0.8% on above average volume. It is trading below its 200-DMA and has immediate support at ~$454 (1.4% below) and sits 7% off highs. Most sectors were in the red, with Technology declining 2.0% and Health Care closing 1.0% lower.
  • Among major indices, the U.K.’s FTSE is trading above its 50-DMA, while France’s CAC is finding resistance at its 50-DMA. Germany’s DAX is trading below its 200-DMA.
  • Among the 17 indices we cover, six are in an Uptrend Under Pressure, three in a Rally Attempt, and the remaining eight in a Confirmed Uptrend. The average distribution day count stands at 4.23.
  • Actionable names in the Focus List include Compass Group ( CPG.GB; CPG:LN ), Sanlorenzo ( SANL.IT; SL:IM ), Vinci ( DG@F.FR; DG:FP ), and Oci ( OCIO.NL; OCI:NA ).

 

Won Global View

Posted on by Gaghan

The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 reversed off 50-DMA resistance ( 4,611 ), closing near session lows and adding its first distribution day. Support remains the 200-DMA ( 4,451 ). The Nasdaq reversed off last week’s highs, also closing near lows and adding its second distribution day since the January 31 follow-through. Both indices have been trading in a choppy range over the last week, unable to progress above key moving average resistance.

WON Europe Today

Posted on by Gaghan

Ishares DJ Stoxx600 (EXSA.DE)

 

We released our Weekly Global Laggards Report yesterday. Click here to access the report. The stocks highlighted in this report are laggards relative to their own domestic markets. We recommend that they be underweighted as they may be vulnerable to further downside risk and underperformance. European names highlighted this week include Symrise ( SY1X.DE; SY1:GR ), Alfa Laval ( ALF.SE; ALFA:SS ), Wartsila ( WRT.FI; WRT1V:FH ), Future plc ( FUTR.GB; FUTR:LN ), Hermes ( RMS.FR; RMS:FP ), Puma ( PUMX.DE; PUM:GR ), David Campari Milano ( CPR.IT; CPR:IM ), Reckitt Benckiser Group ( RKT.GB; RKT:LN ), L’Oreal ( OR@F.FR; OR:FP ), Marr ( MARR.IT; MARR:IM ), and Electrocomponents ( ECM.GB; ECM:LN ).

 

Yesterday,

  • European markets had a very choppy session and pulled back sharply following the release of the U.S. inflation numbers, which rose more than consensus estimates. We recommend investors to be cautious before adding any new risk and book profits in extended names.
  • The Stoxx 600 found resistance at its 100-DMA and fell 0.2%. Among sectors, personal & household goods lost more than 2%, while technology and financial services stocks also lost more than 1%.
  • Among other major indices, France’s CAC is testing its 50-DMA, Germany’s DAX is facing supply at its 200-DMA, while the U.K.’s FTSE 100 continues to rise upward after finding support at its 21-DMA.
  • Among the 17 major indices we track in Europe, the Stoxx 600, Austria, Denmark, Finland, France, the Netherlands, Portugal, and Switzerland closed in the negative territory, with Switzerland recording its first distribution day.
  • New Focus list addition San Lorenzo (SANL.IT; SL:IM) is actionable. Other Actionable names in the Focus List include Jeronimo Martins ( JMT.PT; JMT:PL ) and Beneteau ( CHBE.FR; BEN:FP ).

WON Europe Today

Posted on by Gaghan

On Friday,

European markets continued to be choppy with major indices either recording distribution days or breaking below
key support levels. We recommend that investors be cautious while adding any new risk and book profits in
extended names.

The Stoxx 600 has broken below its 200-DMA after finding supply and forming a downside reversal at its 50-DMA.
Barring Oil & Gas, all sectors closed in negative territory with Auto stocks losing more than 3%.

Among other major indices, France’s CAC recorded its eighth distribution day and is testing support at its 100-
DMA, Germany’s DAX has broken below its 200-DMA while the U.K.’s FTSE 100 is testing its 21-DMA. Both CAC
and FTSE 100 are in an Uptrend Under Pressure.

Among the 17 major indices that we track in Europe, only Norway and Portugal closed in positive territory. France
and Italy recorded eighth and fifth distribution days, respectively.

Actionable names in the Focus List include Compass Group ( CPG.GB; CPG:LN ), Jeronimo Martins ( JMT.PT;
JMT:PL ), and Beneteau ( CHBE.FR; CFR:SW )

Won Global View

Posted on by Gaghan

The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq staged a day six follow-through last Monday, jumping 1.9% and 3.4%, respectively, in higher day/day volume. Despite a volatile week, each index closed above Monday’s lows (S&P 500: 4,414; Nasdaq: 13,767) with no distribution, keeping the follow-through day intact. The S&P 500 now faces resistance at its declining 50-DMA (4,619), while the Nasdaq is still trading 13% off highs and below 200-DMA resistance (14,735).

O’Neil Capital Equipment Sector Weekly

Posted on by Gaghan

Ex-Focus List Stock Trane Technologies (TT) reported Q4 FY21 results. Revenue was up 11% y/y organically, beating consensus estimates by ~1%. EPS increased 32%, beating estimates by 3%. Adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 14.7% (+30bps y/y) due to increased volume and higher prices. However, this improvement was offset by supply-chain issues and scarcity of labor. Organic booking during the quarter was up 27% y/y, driven by strong order growth across all its regions. TT has entered FY22 with a record backlog across all segments and is well-positioned for a profitable FY22 and FY23. For FY22, management guided
for revenue growth in a high-single digit, with adjusted EPS of $6.95–7.15 (+14–17% y/y), both in line with estimates. The stock has fallen 17% off its all-time high and is trading below its 50- and 200-DMA. The technical profile has deteriorated in the past few weeks with an A/D Rating of E and an RS Rating of 62. We would wait for the stock to retake its 50-DMA (+10%) before adding.

WON Europe Today

Posted on by Gaghan

Ishares DJ Stoxx600 (EXSA.DE)

We released our European Weekly Summary today. Click here to access the report. Key points from it include:
The Stoxx 600 remains in an Uptrend Under Pressure with four distribution days. It closed the week below its 50-
DMA support and is now testing its 200-DMA. With increasing distribution across the 16 markets and breadth
extremely thin, we maintain a cautious view of the overall market. Multiple areas of the market are now broken
technically and very few stocks have shown signs of bottoming. Thus, we advise remaining defensive and taking a
patient approach to add risk.

Defensive sectors led in relative terms. Our rotation chart shows short-term momentum ( over four weeks )
continuing to improve in Energy, Finance, Transportation, Utility, and Basic Material, while Tech, Health Care, and
Retail continue to show weak trend in their short-term momentum ( over four weeks ).

European Focus List Update: We added Compass Group ( CPG.GB; CPG:LN ). We removed Mips ( MIPS.SE;
MIPS:SS ), Halma ( HLMA.GB; HLMA:LN ), JD Sports Fashion ( JD.GB; JD/:LN ), Nibe Industrier ( NIBE.SE;
NIBEB:SS ), Ashtead Group ( AHT.GB; AHT:LN ), Soitec ( SOI.FR; SOI:FP ), and IMCD Group ( IMCD.NL; IMCD:NA ).
The list is now down to 29 stocks.

Won Global View

Posted on by Gaghan

The U.S. market remains in a Downtrend. Indices gapped down before staging an upside reversal and closing positive. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq tested price support along ~4,200 and ~13,000, respectively, before rallying to close at intraday highs. We are looking for indices to hold above Monday’s intraday low through Wednesday before shifting the market status to a Rally Attempt.

WON Europe Today

Posted on by Gaghan

Ishares DJ Stoxx600 (EXSA.DE)

 

We released our Weekly Global Laggards Report today ( please click here to access the report ). The stocks highlighted in this report are laggards relative to their own domestic markets. We recommend that they be under weighted as they may be vulnerable to further downside risk and underperformance. European names highlighted this week include Pennon Group ( PNN.GB; PNN:LN ), Puma ( PUMX.DE; PUM:GR ), Nexi ( NEXI.IT; NEXI:IM ), and Eurofins Scientific ( EUF.FR; ERF:FP ).

Won Global View

Posted on by Gaghan

The U.S. market has shifted back to an Uptrend Under Pressure. The S&P closed back below its 50-DMA yesterday after briefly
regaining that level earlier in the week.Support moves back to the rising 100-DMA (4,573), a level that has held three times since early
December. The Nasdaq reversed off its 100-DMA, closing sharply lower, and is now set to test its 200-DMA (14,719) for the second time
this week. The distribution day count stands at seven and three, respectively, with multiple days expiring on both indices next week