Technical Setup
Alamos Gold (AGI.CA, AGI CN) – $12.5B market cap; $33.2M ADV
TECHNICALS
The stock is forming the right side of a stage-six consolidation base with pivot 5% away. Support is along its 10-DMA (-5%) followed by 21-DMA
(-8%)
Author: Kenley Scott
Kenley Scott is a senior equity analyst and sector strategist covering the APAC region and the Energy sector. He is a member of the Global Focus List Committee, which approves all equity recommendations for developed, emerging, and frontier markets. Kenley also writes the Global Sector Summary, part of the Sector Strategy service, which identifies emerging sector strength and weakness across 46 countries every week. After working as a commodities broker, Kenley joined the firm in July 2006. He has a B.S. in Statistics from the University of California, Riverside and also holds a Series 65 securities license.
O’Neil Energy/Material Weekly
Technical Setup
InterGlobe Aviation (VGA.IN; INDOGO IN; $27B market cap)
TECHNICALS
- The stock is trading in the pivot range of INR 6,018–6,319 after breaking out of a stage-one six-week flat base.
- Good SMR Rating of B and high Composite Rating of 86. EPS Rank 30 is expected to improve, given the double-digit earnings growth estimates for the next two years.
- Strong technical ratings: Up/Down Volume ratio of 1.4 and an Acc/Dist Rating of A. RS line is at an all-time high and is trending upward. High RS Rating of 88 indicates the stock’s outperformance relative to the index.
O’Neil Energy/Material Weekly
Technical Setup
Taiyo Holdings (TAIG.JP; 4626 JP; $3B market cap; $8M ADV)
TECHNICALS
- The stock broke out of a stage-two six-week flat base and made a new 52-week high. Support is near its 10-DMA (-4%) followed by its 21-DMA (-7%).
- Decent fundamental profile: SMR Rating of A. Strong earnings growth estimates for FY26-27 with recent upward revision.
Strong technical profile: The stock has been under accumulation for the past two months indicating healthy money inflow. Up/Down Volume ratio of 2.7 indicates positive demand for stock. RS line is trending upward, with a strong RS Rating of 96
O’Neil Energy/Material Weekly
Technical Setup
Triple Flag Precious Metals (TFPM, $5.4B market cap)
TECHNICALS
- The stock gapped up and broke out of a stage-two flat base with a pivot of $25.45 and is actionable.
- Near-best fundamental profile with a high EPS rank 98 and the best possible SMR rating of A, driven mainly by margin expansion and accelerating sales growth. High Composite rating of 98. Double-digit earnings growth estimates for FY25. Earnings and sales grew at more than 25% CAGR over the last five years.
- Up/Down Volume ratio of 1.7 and the Acc/Dist Rating of C is expected to improve with today’s strong technical action. RS line is trending upward with a high RS rating of 91. Industry Group Rank of 7 indicate high investor interest in the group.
O’Neil Energy/Material Weekly
Technical Setup
Nippon Paint Holdings (NPPT.JP; 4612 JP) – $21B market cap; $26M ADV
TECHNICALS
- The stock bounced off its 10-DMA and broke out of a stage-one 37-week consolidation base. It is 2% off its 52-week high with immediate support near its rising 21-DMA (-2%).
- The stock has been under accumulation for the past six, indicating a healthy money inflow. Up/Down Volume Ratio of 1.1 is constructive, indicating positive demand for the stock. The Group Rank has also improved sharply to 14 from 105, reflecting increased investor interest. RS line is trending upwards and is near its 52-week high, with an RS Rating of 80.
- Strong Fundamental Profile: EPS Rank of 90 and SMR Rating of B. It has strong double-digit FY25 EPS growth estimates.
O’Neil Energy/Material Weekly
Technical Setup
Time Technoplast (ETE.IN, TIME IN, $1.2B market cap)
TECHNICALS
- The stock is trading in the pivot range after breaking out of a stage-one cup-with-handle base with a pivot of INR 455.
- Near-best fundamental ratings with a strong EPS Rank 98 and the best-possible SMR Rating of A. Strong double-digit growth estimates for the next two years. High Composite Rating of 97. Earnings grew at a CAGR of 127% over the last five years with sales growing at 62% in the same period.
- Decent money flows with an Acc/Dist Rating of B-. RS line is recovering from April lows and is in an uptrend. Strong RS Rating of 86.
O’Neil Energy/Material Weekly
Technical Setups
Hyundai Glovis (GLV.KR) – $8B market cap; $25M ADV
TECHNICALS
- The stock broke out of a stage-two 22-week cup-with-handle base and is actionable. It is 5% off its 52-week high with support at its rising 10-DMA (-1%), followed by its 21-DMA (-4%).
- The stock has been under accumulation for the past two months, indicating a healthy money inflow. Up/Down Volume ratio of 1.5 is constructive, indicating positive demand for the stock. The Group Rank has also improved sharply to 82 from 137, reflecting increased investor interest. RS line has also bounced off its recent lows and is trending upward, with an RS Rating of 75.
O’Neil Energy/Material Weekly
Chart of the Week
Airline stocks surged after better-than expected Q2 earnings results from DAL/UAL. Also, DAL reinstated it’s full-year 2025 guidance, expecting $5.25-6.25 in earnings, which is 6% ahead of consensus at the midpoint. The airlines ETF (JETS) rose to a 5-month high and to within 7% of 4-year highs after having been down as much as 37% from highs in April.
Strategy View
Key Points:
- Looking at seasonality in the U.S., the first half is nearly concluded and has been roughly in line with history.
- But there was huge variance from Q1 (sharp underperformance vs history) to Q2 (large outperformance).
- By sector, the averages did not align quite as well with history. Materials, Capital Equipment, Technology, and Utility sharply outperformed their history. But Cyclical, Staple, Energy, Health Care, and Retail uncharacteristically underperformed.
- Notably by each quarter, Consumer Cyclical and Technology were among the worst in Q1 and among the best in Q2, which was right in line with history.
- Looking forward, the second half tends to be a bit stronger, especially for the Nasdaq.
- But the performance can be lumpy, and most of the net performance comes from a strong Q4 history.
- Most sectors average between 6–8% for the full second half, with Cyclical, Staple, and Utility, which are only +2-3%.
- Lastly, the monthly breakdown in the upcoming Q3 period should be mentioned, as July is very strong but August and September are much weaker, on average.
O’Neil Energy/Material Weekly
- TECHNICALS
The stock has bounced off its recent lows and is trading constructively above its key moving averages. It is 14% off highs, with immediate support
near its rising 10-DMA (-4%), followed by its 21-DMA (-7%). - Strong fundamental ratings: EPS Rank 95. Best-in-class SMR Rating of A. High Composite Rating of 95. It has double-digit EPS growth estimates
for FY25. - Strong technical Profile: The stock has been in accumulation over the past two months, indicating healthy money inflow. Up/Down Volume ratio of 2.3
indicates positive demand for the stock. Group Rank also improved sharply to 76 from 147 in less than two months, reflecting increased investor
interest. - RS line is at an all-time high, with a strong RS Rating of 81. It has the best possible Acc/Dist Rating of A+
