The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq continue to set new all-time highs after a week of broad-based accumulation. Indices are 1-2% above the first level of support at their rapidly rising 10-DMAs ( S&P 500: 4,620, Nasdaq : 15,602). Distribution day count remains low at two and one respectively.
Author: Midhun Parameswaran
European Focus
On Thursday, the Stoxx 600 ended 1.62% above last Friday’s close. Of the 17 indices we cover, 11 are in a Confirmed Uptrend, one in a Rally Attempt, and five in an Uptrend Under Pressure. We upgraded the Stoxx 600, Denmark, and France to a Confirmed Uptrend after they reclaimed their prior Confirmed Uptrend high.
Global Focus Developed
Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries Index gained 1.8% this week. The index reclaimed its 50-DMA and closed 2% below its 52-week high. It remains in an Uptrend Under Pressure with four distribution days, after adding one this week. One distribution day expires next week.
Global Focus Emerging
The CSI 300 lost 1.35% on higher and close-to-average volume and remains in an Uptrend Under Pressure with eight distribution days. The index lost support at the 50-DMA (~4,888, +1.0%) with next support at July 28’s low (~4,664, -3.7%). Next resistance is at the 100-DMA (~4,974, +2.7%).
Global Focus Frontier
Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank (HD Bank) is one of the top banks in Vietnam and is a constituent of the VN30 Index. Its industry-leading growth and key financial ratios, along with its exposure to the consumer finance industry, will drive its growth.
China A Shares
The CSI 300 lost 1.03% on slightly higher and below average volume and remains in an Uptrend Under Pressure with six distribution days. The index pared early week losses to retake its converging 21- and 50-DMA (~4,900, -0.2%), with next support at July 28’s low (~4,664, -4.1%). Next resistance is at the 100-DMA (~4,995, +1.8%). Sino-American relations were back in focus following spats over Taiwan and a U.S. ban on China Telecom. Clean energy stocks led the gains following detailed action to achieve carbon neutrality. Power battery-related companies outperformed on a robust outlook following upbeat earnings. Defense also led. Real estate-related sectors led the losses on a dimmer outlook amid property tax worries and slower earnings growth. Cyclicals like coal mining and steel stocks retreated further amid consistent regulatory concerns. The market is still trading sideways with volatility and sector rotation on earnings. Trading volume remained less than average. We would stay patient until the CSI 300 breaks above ~5,000 on good volume. Investors should stay disciplined and selective following more clues from earnings.
US Focus
The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have now both broken out to new all-time highs. There are multiple levels of support below current prices include the prior highs (S&P 500: 4,545; Nasdaq: 15,403) before the sharply rising 10- and 21-DMA. Distribution has mostly been avoided for two weeks with the count at five and four, respectively, with three expiring on each next week.
European Focus
On Thursday, the Stoxx 600 ended 0.68% above last Friday’s close. Luxembourg, the U.K., and Italy were shifted to a Confirmed Uptrend after the indices retook their prior rally highs. Of the 17 indices we cover, seven are in a Confirmed Uptrend, one in a Rally Attempt, and 12 in an Uptrend Under Pressure.
Global Focus Developed
Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries Index declined 1.1% this week. The index remains in an Uptrend Under Pressure despite breaching support along its 50-DMA. It has six distribution days after adding one this week. Two distribution days will expire next week.
Global Focus Emerging
The CSI 300 gained 0.56% on lower and below average volume and remains in an Uptrend Under Pressure with four distribution days. The index traded around its converging 21- and 50-DMA (~4,900, -1.2%) for the week. Resistance remains at previous highs near 5,000 (+0.8%) and next support is at July 28’s low (~4,664, -6.0%).
