The U.S. market remains in an Uptrend Under Pressure. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq regained their respective 50-DMA this week. We will be looking for each to settle above this level or push further towards highs over the next few sessions before shifting the market status back to Confirmed Uptrend. The distribution day count stands at six and five, respectively, with one day expiring on each next week.
Author: Midhun Parameswaran
European Focus
On Thursday, the Stoxx 600 ended 1.89% above last Friday’s close. Of the 17 indices we cover, three are in a Confirmed Uptrend, one in a Rally attempt, and 13 in an Uptrend Under Pressure.
Global Focus Developed
Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries Index gained 0.8% this week. It has immediate support along its 21-DMA (-0.4%) and faces resistance along its 50-DMA (+1.0%). It is in an Uptrend Under Pressure with six distribution days after adding two this week. One distribution day will expire next week.
Global Focus Emerging
The CSI 300 ended flat with a modest gain of 0.04% on below average volume. The market remains in an Uptrend Under Pressure with five distribution days. The index was consolidating around its 21- (~4,901, -0.6%) and 50-DMA (~4,899, -0.7%) with resistance at previous highs of ~5,000 (+1.4%) and support at July 28’s low (~4,664, -5.4%).
Global Focus Frontier
Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank (HD Bank) is one of the top banks in Vietnam and is a constituent of the VN30 Index. Its industry-leading growth and key financial ratios, along with its exposure to the consumer finance industry, will drive its growth.
China A Shares
The CSI 300 gained 1.31% on higher but below average volume on Friday, the only trading session in this holiday-shortened week. The market remained in an Uptrend Under Pressure with six distribution days. The index retook its converging 21- and 50-DMA (~4,900; -0.6%). Next resistance lies at the 100-DMA (~5,038; +2.1%) and support lies at the low of July 28 (~4,664; -5.7%). Market sentiment was generally positive as high-level talks between China and the U.S. eased tensions, while the private gauge Caixin Services PMI rose to 53.4 in September from the previous 46.7. Previously outperforming cyclical and green energy stocks led the loss, while agricultural and food & beverage stocks continued to go up. Tourism and transportation companies rebounded on eased COVID conditions and positive progress in Merck’s COVID pill. Oil & gas stocks were also strong on surging energy prices. We would like to see the index hold its 50-DMA and trading volume get higher before turning more positive. Sector rotation remained strong amid the volatile market. Investors are advised to adopt a selective and patient approach and watch earnings for more clues.
US Focus
The U.S. market remains in an Uptrend Under Pressure. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq gapped lower to support on Monday, before rallying back towards 50-DMA resistance to close the week. Both will now enter their sixth week of consolidation with no real trend yet to develop. Support remains ~4,200 and ~14,200, respectively. The distribution day count stands at six and seven, respectively, with one day set to expire on the S&P 500 and two on the Nasdaq next week.
European Focus
On Thursday, the Stoxx 600 ended 1.29% above last Friday’s close. Of the 17 indices we cover, one is in a Confirmed Uptrend and 16 are in an Uptrend Under Pressure. This week, we upgraded Norway and Portugal to a Confirmed Uptrend after they reclaimed their rally high. We downgraded Germany to a Downtrend after the index breached its 200-DMA.
Global Focus Developed
Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries Index gained 1.8% this week. The index is in an Uptrend Under Pressure with six distribution days. Two distribution days will expire next week. The index has regained its 21- and 100-DMA. It faces resistance at its 50-DMA (+1%).
Global Focus Emerging
The CSI 300 gained 1.31% on higher but below average volume on Friday, the only trading session in this holiday-shortened week. The market remained in an Uptrend Under Pressure with six distribution days. The index retook its converging 21- and 50-DMA (~4,900; -0.6%). Next resistance lies at the 100-DMA (~5,038; +2.1%) and support lies at the low of July 28 (~4,664; -5.7%).
