The U.S. market remains in an Uptrend Under Pressure. The S&P 500 has rallied back to test new
high resistance at 4,743, a level the index reversed from early last week. The Nasdaq regained its 50-
DMA after falling back below that level last week. Though the S&P 500 is on the verge of breaking
out, both indices are still technically trading within consolidation with no real trend yet to develop.
Distribution was avoided this week with the count now at five each with one day expiring on the
S&P 500 next week. We will shift the market status
Author: Midhun Parameswaran
European Focus
On Wednesday, the Stoxx 600 ended 1.19% above last Friday’s close. Of the 17 indices we cover, six are in a Confirmed Uptrend, two in a Rally Attempt, and the remaining nine in an Uptrend Under Pressure. Spain was upgraded from a Rally Attempt to a Confirmed Uptrend after gaining 1.3% on high trading volume.
Global Focus Developed
Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries Index gained 1.1% this week. The index is facing resistance along its 50-DMA and trading 3% below its 52-week high. It is in an Uptrend Under Pressure with five distribution days. One distribution day expires next week.
Global Focus Emerging
The CSI 300 closed with a narrowed loss of 0.12% as of Thursday this week. The market was shifted to an Uptrend Under Pressure following Monday’s heavy selloff. The current distribution day count is three. The index found support at and then traded around its converged 100- and 50-DMA (~4,912, -0.7%). Next support lies at previous lows of ~4,663 (-5.8%).
Global Focus Frontier
Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank (HD Bank) is one of the top banks in Vietnam and a constituent of the VN30 Index. Its industry-leading growth and key financial ratios, along with its exposure to the consumer finance industry, will drive growth.
China A Shares
The CSI 300 gained 0.95% on lower and below average volume and remains in an Uptrend Under Pressure with eight distribution days. The index closed around its 50-DMA (~4,889, +0.02%) with next resistance at the 100-DMA (~4,958, +1.4%) and support at July 28’s low (~4,664, -4.6%). Investors parsed marginally improving October financial data, with M2 up 8.7% y/y (consensus 8.36%) and new loans of RMB 0.83T (consensus RMB 0.74T). Trade growth beat expectations on resilient overseas demand and increasing domestic energy demand. But factory gate inflation (PPI +13.5% y/y) remained at a historic high. Real estate surged on expectations of regulatory easing following a rise in new mortgage loans in October’s total social financing and the restart of debt issues by domestic developers. Defense outperformed on a positive outlook following clues in Q3 earnings. Food and beverage pulled back from a price hike-fueled rally. Coal mining stocks retreated further on weakening prices. Health Care was rattled by positive updates from Pfizer on COVID pills and domestic drug price negotiations. We will stay patient until there are more positive policy signals or signs of a sustained upward momentum. Investors should be cautious, disciplined, and selective amid strong volatility and sector rotation.
US Focus
The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq found support near their respective 10-DMA, eventually closing ~1% off all-time highs for the week. Support below this level remains the rising 21-DMA (S&P 500: 4,603; Nasdaq: 15,515). The distribution day count remains low at three and one, respectively.
European Focus
On Thursday, the Stoxx 600 ended 0.38% above last Friday’s close. Of the 17 indices we cover, 11 are in a Confirmed Uptrend, one in a Rally Attempt, and five in an Uptrend Under Pressure.
Global Focus Developed
Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries Index declined 0.2% this week. The index is trading along its 50-DMA and closed 2% below its 52-week high. It remains in an Uptrend Under Pressure with four distribution days, after adding one this week. Two distribution days will expire next week.
Global Focus Emerging
The CSI 300 gained 0.95% on lower and below average volume and remains in an Uptrend Under Pressure with eight distribution days. The index closed around its 50-DMA (~4,889, +0.02%) with next resistance at the 100-DMA (~4,958, +1.4%) and support at July 28’s low (~4,664, -4.6%).
