Author: Navaneeth Nair

Won Europe Today

Posted on by Navaneeth Nair

Yesterday,

European stocks closed higher on strong manufacturing data from China and Europe. However, both the U.S. and China imposed fresh tariffs on each other’s imports, contributing to fears of a global slowdown.

The U.S. imposed 15% tariffs on a variety of Chinese goods such as footwear, smart watches, and flat-paneled televisions, while China imposed 5% duty on U.S. crude derivatives.

The Stoxx 600 gained 0.32%. Financial Services and Travel & Leisure led the gains while Technology dragged the index down.

Among other major bourses, France’s CAC and Germany’s DAX were up 0.23% and 0.12%, respectively.

The U.K.’s export-sensitive FTSE rose more than 1% on lower volume following the sterling’s depreciation of 0.8%. This was after media reports emerged that the U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson could call for a snap election if anti no-deal MPs manage to defeat government.

Norway, Sweden, Austria, and Luxembourg closed in negative territory, while Denmark was upgraded to a Confirmed Uptrend after it reached a new high.

Won Europe Today

Posted on by Navaneeth Nair

Key points:

European markets: The Stoxx 600 has been in a Rally Attempt since August 21, as it has remained above August 15 lows. Despite the positive action this week (the Stoxx 600 is up 2.3%), we are still looking for a follow-through day before we become more bullish on the market. As a reminder, a follow-through day is when the index gains at least 1.5% with price and volume action that brings conviction the market is starting to rally.

The lack of leadership is one of our major concerns in this short rally.

Won Europe Today

Posted on by Navaneeth Nair

Yesterday, European markets closed higher, near a four‐week high, after Beijing signaled a willingness to have talks with the
U.S. regarding their trade dispute. France’s CAC and Germany’s DAX were up 1.51% and 1.18%, respectively, on higher volume. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 gained 0.98%, on higher volume.

The Stoxx 600 was up 1.04%, on higher volume.
Sectors that gained the most include Chemicals, Banks, and Construction & Materials.
All countries closed in positive territory
We changed the market statuses of Norway and Sweden to a Confirmed Uptrend after they each had a follow‐through
day.

Won Global View

Posted on by Navaneeth Nair

Strategy View

Technically, the overall commodity complex remains very weak. The Invesco DB Commodity Index is nearly 20% off 52-week
highs, well below both the 10- and 40-WMA. In addition, it has undercut the May lows suggesting further downside risk. There is support at the December 2018 lows. A retest of that level is possible as most commodities outside of precious metals ( majority of index weighting ) are trending lower.

Marked divergence within the space, as commodities related to agricultural consumption and most related to industrial production, are very weak; precious metals are trending higher.

We will be watching for some consolidation near highs in the leading precious metal groups and, conversely, weak
bounces from lows in the other lagging commodity groups, for new opportunities to play the inverse trends.

See report for stocks of interest in both best and worst groups.

Won Global View

Posted on by Navaneeth Nair

The U.S. market is in an Uptrend Under Pressure. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq remain in a trendless range as price action has been choppy and often times on low volume over the last three weeks. The distribution day count stands at four days on the Nasdaq and three on the S&P 500 with support at the rising 200-DMA ( S&P 500: 2,803; Nasdaq: 7,596 ).

Won Europe Today

Posted on by Navaneeth Nair

Yesterday, most European markets closed in the red due to lack of positive news and existing recession fears. France’s CAC and Germany’s DAX were down 0.34% and 0.25%, respectively, on lower volume. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 rose 0.35%, on lower volume, beating its peers as the pound fell after the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced plans to suspend parliament ( increasing chances of a no-deal Brexit ).

The Stoxx 600 was down 0.13% on lower volume.

Sectors that incurred heavy losses include Software & Computer Services, Insurance, and Leisure Goods, while Mining and Oil & Gas producers were the biggest gainers.

Countries that closed in positive territory include the U.K, Spain, and the Netherlands.

We added one distribution day for Austria after it lost 0.96% on higher volume, taking the total to two