The U.S. market is in a Rally Attempt. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were down 1.5% and 2.7%, respectively, this week. Both traded inside the range from the prior week but closed near the lows of the week after being rejected from resistance at their 21-DMA (~4,430, ~16,900). The opportunity of a follow-through day, i.e., gains of 1.7% or higher on higher d/d volume, remains open as long as April 7 lows (4,835, 14,784) are not breached.
Author: Raj Gupta
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV gained 1.2% last week, finding support at ~$130, but still trading below all key moving averages. Initial near-term resistance is the
falling 21-DMA ($141), followed by the 50-DMA ($145) and 200-DMA ($147). XLV outperforms broader indices when they trade lower,
but as we saw last week, widely underperforms any recovery. Despite underperforming last week, we still recommend an equalweight sector positioning as its RS line has yet to make a lower low and major indices have yet to stage a follow-through day
(FTD). Should a FTD take place this week, we will likely shift our rating back to underweight.
Market View
The U.S. market is in a Rally Attempt. Indices surged higher off their respective lows (S&P 500: 4,835, Nasdaq:14,784) this week but didn’t meet the criteria to upgrade the market status. The window for a follow-through day (+1.7% on higher volume D/D) remains open. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have regained their 10-DMA (5,354, 16,629) with the next level of resistance at their declining 21-DMA (5,479, 17,089).
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV declined 6.4% last week, with the majority of damage occurring Friday. The index has now broken through YTD lows with the next
level of support at ~$132 (-2.5%). Despite Friday’s 5.5% drop, XLV’s RS line continues to rise, warranting an equal-weight sector
positioning.
O’Neil Market View
U.S. Market
The U.S. market was shifted back to a Downtrend from Rally Attempt. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were down 9% and 10%, respectively, for the week. They both undercut Monday’s lows, the lows from mid-March, and both August/September 2024 lows of bases that had been established then. The weekly losses were the largest since March 2020. The S&P 500 has its next level of support just below ~5,000 from Q1 2024 lows. The Nasdaq’s base lows from Q1 2024 was near 15,200. Indices are more than 10% below their 21-DMA and 8% below what had been prior support at March lows (5,405, 17,238). Further, the Nasdaq had a “death cross” with the 10-WMA crossing below the 40-WMA, for the first time since March 2023. The S&P 500 narrowly missed this occurring but it is almost a certainty in the coming weeks
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
Sector Thoughts
XLV declined 1.4% last week, reversing from 200-DMA ($147.69) resistance. The next level of support is $143.41, followed by $140
and $135.95. Its RS line continues to hold up well, still warranting an equal-weight sector positioning
O’Neil Market View
The U.S. market is in a Rally Attempt. Indices are fading after bouncing into moving average resistance. The S&P 500
is pulling back from its 200-DMA (5,759) while the Nasdaq is declining from its 21-DMA (18,048). The next level of support
is at the recent low of ~5,504 and ~17,238 on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, respectively. The market status will move back
to a downtrend should both indices undercut their recent low (S&P 500: 5,504, Nasdaq: 17,238). Until then, the window
for a follow-through day (FTD) remains open
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV rose 1.15% last week, regaining its 50- and 100-DMA. It faces immediate resistance at its 200-DMA ($147.71), followed by
~$150-151 range. Its RS line has started to trend higher, still warranting an equal-weight sector positioning.
O’Neil Market View
The U.S. market is in a Rally Attempt. The S&P 500 rose 0.5%, while the Nasdaq rose 0.2% last week, including upside intraday reversals to close positive on Friday. Indices have resistance at declining 21-DMAs (5,748, 18,166), which is now crossed below the 200-DMA The window for a follow-through day (FTD) remains open unless indices undercut last week’s intraday lows (5,505, 17,238).
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV fell nearly 3% last week, wiping out the last three week’s of gains and now testing support at February lows of $143.84. The next
level of support below this level is ~$140 (-3.4%). Despite the sharp one-week pullback, its RS line held fairly steady, still warranting
an equal-weight sector positioning.