O’Neil Health Care Weekly

XLV rose 1.15% last week, regaining its 50- and 100-DMA. It faces immediate resistance at its 200-DMA ($147.71), followed by
~$150-151 range. Its RS line has started to trend higher, still warranting an equal-weight sector positioning.

O’Neil Market View

The U.S. market is in a Rally Attempt. The S&P 500 rose 0.5%, while the Nasdaq rose 0.2% last week, including upside intraday reversals to close positive on Friday. Indices have resistance at declining 21-DMAs (5,748, 18,166), which is now crossed below the 200-DMA The window for a follow-through day (FTD) remains open unless indices undercut last week’s intraday lows (5,505, 17,238).

O’Neil Health Care Weekly

XLV fell nearly 3% last week, wiping out the last three week’s of gains and now testing support at February lows of $143.84. The next
level of support below this level is ~$140 (-3.4%). Despite the sharp one-week pullback, its RS line held fairly steady, still warranting
an equal-weight sector positioning.

Market View

The U.S. market is in a Rally Attempt. Despite the heavy sell-off this week, the Nasdaq has held above its recent low (17,238) for three sessions and is open for a follow through day as soon as Monday. A follow through day is a move of +1.7% or more on volume higher than the prior session. The Rally Attempt on the Nasdaq resets if the low (17,238) is undercut. The S&P 500 set a new low (5,504) on Thursday and is only on its first day off that low and will be open for a follow through, if the low is held, as early as Wednesday.

O’Neil Health Care Weekly

XLV traded relatively flat last week, holding support along its 200-DMA ($147.61). The next key level of resistance is the November
high of $150.95 (+1%). Its RS line continues to rise as the broader market corrects, warranting an equal-weight sector positioning.

Market View

The U.S. market remains in a Downtrend. The S&P 500 declined ~3.1% for the week despite staging an upside reversal and closing positive on Friday. It breached it’s 200-DMA (5,733) for the first time since November 2023, before closing just above it. The Nasdaq fell 3.5% and closed the week below the 200-DMA (18,400) for the first time since October 2023. A follow-through day (FTD) for each index now becomes first possible on Wednesday, March 12, assuming no further lows are made

O’Neil Health Care Weekly

XLV rallied 171bps last week, regaining 200-DMA ($147.51) support and now set to test resistance at its November high of $150.95.
Despite still trading 7% off its September peak, its RS line made a higher high last week, warranting a shift to an equal-weight sector
positioning.

Market View

The U.S. market was downgraded to a Downtrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq declined 1% and 3.5%, respectively, and breached their 100-DMAs (5,954, 19,239). The next level of support on the S&P 500 is the low of the current consolidation (5,773) followed by the rising 200-DMA (5,720). The Nasdaq is currently testing 200-DMA (18,358) support.

 

Over the trailing five sessions, Capital Equipment (+2.3%) and Health Care (+1%) outperformed while Consumer Staples, Retail, and Basic Material were relatively flat. All other sectors declined as Technology and Consumer Cyclical fell 3% each, followed by Financial and Energy pulling back

O’Neil Health Care Weekly

XLV gained 1.1% last week, still consolidating below 200-DMA ($147.38) resistance followed by $148.78 and $151. Support remains
the flattening 50-DMA ($142.61). Despite rising last week, its RS line has yet to make a higher high, still warranting an underweight
sector positioning. We will be looking for the index to break and hold above its 200-DMA and for the RS line to make a higher high,
before becoming more constructive on the broader sector.

Market View

The U.S. market was moved to an Uptrend Under Pressure. This week, the S&P 500 declined 1.7% and is 2% off highs while the Nasdaq was down 2.5% and is 3% off highs. The S&P 500 broke below its 21-DMA, but is still slightly above the 50-DMA (6,010). The Nasdaq breached both 21- and 50-DMAs, leaving next support at the 100-DMA (19,192). The distribution day count stands at six apiece after each index picked up one on Friday.