The U.S. market has been shifted to a Rally Attempt. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were down very slightly for the week, reversing from sharp losses to close near the highs of the week. The S&P 500 broke and then retook the 100-DMA (5,313), while the Nasdaq closed back above March highs of ~16,540 after testing the 200-DMA (15,892). Indices have immediate resistance at their 21-DMA (5,401/17,160), followed by the 50-DMA (5,446/17,545) which is 2–5% above current levels. We will shift the market to a Confirmed Uptrend if a follow-through day occurs (+1.7% or more on higher d/d volume without recent lows being undercut).
Author: Raj Gupta
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV advanced 60bps last week, remaining at all-time highs with a sharply rising RS line. Though we expect the sector to pullback given broad market weakness, we believe it will continue to outperform the market, warranting an overweight sector positioning. Look for immediate support at its 21-DMA ($148.76), followed by the 50-DMA ($146.62).
Market View
The U.S. market is in a Downtrend. Indices declined 2-3% due to broad-based distribution. The S&P 500 is testing 100-DMA (5,307) support while the Nasdaq breached its 100-DMA (16,878) and is testing price support along ~16,500, which coincides with the top of the prior base. Stay patient and wait for indices to settle and attempt a new rally.
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV advanced 1.4% last week, bouncing off its 21-DMA ($147.75) and back into new highs. Its RS line continues to rise from lows, warranting an equal- to overweight sector positioning.
Market View
The U.S. market was shifted to a Downtrend. The S&P 500 fell 0.8%, while the Nasdaq dropped 2.1% for the week. The S&P 500
fell to below its 50-DMA for the first time in nearly three months before slightly retaking it to end the week. Next support could be
between 5,291 (100-DMA) and 5,340 (prior base highs). The Nasdaq broke and closed below the 50-DMA with next support at the
100-DMA (16,820).
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV rallied further into all-time highs early last week, but ended the week down 27bps after a sharp pullback on Thursday to 21-DMA ($146.79) support. Its RS line continues to rise from lows, warranting an equal-weight sector positioning.
Market View
The U.S. market was shifted to an Uptrend Under Pressure. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq declined 1.9% and 3.6%, respectively, with each index closing below its 21-DMA (5,533 ,18,002). The next level of support it the rising 50-DMA (5,410;17,422), which is ~2% lower. The distribution day stands at five and four, respectively, with one day expiring on each index at the end of next week.
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV advanced 2.7% last week, breaking out to new all-time highs before closing directly at its pivot of $148.27. Its RS line has risen
from lows, but has yet to make a higher high, warranting an equal-weight sector positioning.
Market View
The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. This week, the S&P 500 was up 0.9%, while Nasdaq was up 0.3%. Both pushed further into all-time highs but finished in the bottom half of the weekly range. Immediate support is at the rising 10-DMA (5,553/18,234), with the next level of support at the rising 21-DMA (5,504/17,957). The distribution day count stands at three on both indices.
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV declined 92 bps last week and is testing support at its 50-DMA ($144.26). It breached its 21-DMA ($145.26). Its RS line remains in
a long-term downtrend, warranting an underweight sector positioning. We will be looking for the sector to break into new highs
before recommending an overweight sector positioning.