Market View

The U.S. market remains in a Rally Attempt. Indices have rallied off recent lows (S&P 500: 4,953; Nasdaq: 15,222) as the Nasdaq narrowly missed a follow-day after a strong move on Friday. Both indices face resistance at the at their respective 50-DMAs (S&P 500: 5,124; Nasdaq: 16,052).

 

Over the last five sessions, Technology and Consumer Cyclical rose ~4% and outperformed, followed by Retail, jumping 2%. Four other sectors – Consumer Staple, Energy, Capital Equipment and Utility – rose 1%, while Financial, Health Care and Basic Material gained slightly less than 1%. The best performing industry groups over the past five sessions include Department Stores, Auto Manufacturers, Ships, Banks, Leisure Toys, Education, Hospitals and Semiconductor Manufacturing. The worst performing industry groups over the past five sessions include Hardware, Steel, Leisure Movies, Wholesale Food, Internet Content, Auto Parts, Machinery, Specialty Retail and Solar. Forty-five percent of S&P 500 stocks are trading above their 50-DMA, and 72% are trading above their 200-DMA versus 34% and 67%, respectively, a week ago. Thirty-three percent of Nasdaq 100 stocks are trading above their respective 50-DMA, versus 18% one week ago.

O’Neil Health Care Weekly

XLV traded relatively flat last week following a 6% decline in the previous two weeks. Though the sector remains near-term oversold, it
now faces multiple levels of resistance including its 100-DMA ($140.71). The next level of support is the 200-DMA ($135.84). Its RS
line (vs. the S&P 500 and Nasdaq) picked up slightly last week but still warrants an underweight sector positioning given few stocks
are in position to buy.

Market View

The U.S. market is in a Downtrend. On Monday, we shifted the market to a Downtrend for the first time since late-October 2023. For the week, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq fell 3.0% and 5.5%, respectively, and each breached their 50-DMA for the first time in over five months. The Nasdaq also sliced below the 100-DMA (15,490), while the S&P 500 remains slightly above (4,935). Long-term 200-DMA support is 6% and 4% below, respectively. With another low set on Friday, we need to see four days off the bottom before a potential follow-through day, which could now occur next Thursday at the earliest.

O’Neil Health Care Weekly

XLV declined another 3% last week, closing below its 100-DMA ($140.26) which may now act as near-term resistance. Though we
believe the sector is short-term oversold, it is more likely to chop in a range with the next level of support at ~$136.50, which may
coincide with a rising 200-DMA ($135.66). We continue to recommend an underweight sector positioning given its RS line continues
to fall to new lows.

Market View

The U.S. market remains in an Uptrend Under Pressure. Price action remains very volatile as both indices pulled back and are testing their respective 50-DMAs (S&P 500: 5,111, Nasdaq: 16,061). Should both indices close below their 50-DMA, the market status is at risk of being downgraded to Correction. Currently the distribution day count stands at seven and six days on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, respectively, with two days expiring on each index at the end of next week.

O’Neil Health Care Weekly

XLV was the second worst performing sector (Retail) last week, falling over 3% and breaking 50-DMA support ($144.71) which will
now act as near-term resistance. The next support level is the rising 100-DMA ($139.56). XLV’s RS line (vs. the S&P 500 and Nasdaq)
made a lower low, warranting an underweight sector positioning.

Market View

The U.S. market was shifted to an Uptrend Under Pressure. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq declined ~1.0% and 0.8%, respectively for the week. Both breached and closed below the 21-DMA on Thursday. It was the first time both indices closed below their 21-DMAs since early-January. Indices retook their 21-DMAs on Friday, and if they settle back above for several days, we could shift the market back to Confirmed Uptrend. Otherwise, another break below leaves support at rising 50-DMAs (5,083/15,980). The distribution day count stands at five and eight, respectively, with two expiring on the Nasdaq next week.

O’Neil Health Care Weekly

XLV gained 1.6% last week, after finding support at its 21-DMA ($145.90). Overall absolute action remains positive with resistance at
the prior high of $148.27. Though its RS line (vs. S&P 500 and Nasdaq) bounced off lows, the overall trend still remains down,
warranting an equal-to under-weight sector positioning.

Market View

The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. Indices closed mixed, with the S&P 500 rising 0.4%, and the Nasdaq declining
marginally. Both indices remain at or within 1% of their all-time highs. Short-term support for both indices remains at the 10-DMA
(5,207/16,292), followed by the rising 21-DMA (5,166/16,197). The distribution day count on the indices remains at four and eight,
respectively, with one expiring on each next week.

O’Neil Health Care Weekly

XLV continues to trade relatively flat, still consolidating gains ~2% off highs and above 50-DMA ($143.74) support. Despite absolute
price action remaining intact, its RS line (vs. S&P 500 and Nasdaq) made another new low last week, warranting an under-to equalweight sector positioning.