O’Neil Health Care Weekly

XLV declined 280bps last week and broke below its 50-and 200-DMA. Next support is at $126, followed by $123.60. Its RS line made a lower low, warranting an underweight sector positioning. Last week, Services led while Hospitals and Long-term care lagged.

Market View

The U.S. market status remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. Indices continue to consolidate on below average volume. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are slightly below their 10-DMA (4,405/13,656) followed by the next level of support at the rising 21-DMA (4,367/13,506). The distribution day count stands at five and three respectively with one day expiring on the S&P 500 next week.

O’Neil Health Care Weekly

XLV rose 55bps last week and regained its 50-DMA Friday. The next level of immediate resistance is at the previous high of $133.25 followed by $135.80. Despite the index regaining its 50-DMA, its RS line is near lows, warranting an
underweight sector positioning. Last week, we saw breakouts in CROs (MEDP, IQV, ICLR) driven by a recovery in
biotech funding. The total funding is now at 95% of pre-covid levels. Overall, Medical Distribution (ABC, MCK, CAH), despite being extended, continues to lead, while Hospitals and Outpatient Care ideas (HCA, UHS, THC, SEM, ACHC) are also breaking out or building their right sides on improving labor costs and higher admission rates.

Market View

The U.S. market status remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. Both S&P 500 and Nasdaq gapped up on Friday and closed strong for over 2% weekly gains. The S&P 500 closed above immediate resistance near 4,448, while for the Nasdaq it remains just below the peak from two weeks prior near 13,864. The distribution day count stands at four and three, respectively.

O’Neil Health Care Weekly

XLV declined 16bps last week and is now testing support at its 50- and 200-DMA (~$131). It has resistance at ~$134,
followed by $135.81. Though its RS line has lifted from lows, it has yet to make a higher high, still warranting an
underweight sector positioning. Medical Distribution (ABC, CAH, MCK), though now extended, continues to lead, while multiple Hospitals (HCA, SEM, UHS) are in position to breakout. Meanwhile, XBI and Biotech, has pulled back directly to 50-DMA support. Dexcom (DXCM) had its Investor Day after the close Friday. Though there were positive updates, their base case guidance was largely in-line with consensus.

Market View

The U.S. market status remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq pulled back 1-2% off 52-week
highs and are testing 10-DMA support (4,357/13,514) followed by the rising 21-DMA (4,308/13,289)). The distribution day
count stands at four and three respectively with one day expiring on each index next week.

O’Neil Health Care Weekly

XLV rose 137 bps last week regaining both its 50- and 200-DMA (~$131), which will now act as near-term support. It has immediate resistance at ~$134, followed by $135.81. Despite the rally, its RS line remains near lows, warranting an underweight sector positioning. Medical Services led by Hospitals are back on the right side of their respective bases following commentary by UNH which flagged elevated volumes of elective surgeries.

Market View

The U.S. market status remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq jumped 2.5% and 3% higher and remain short-term extended. The next level of price resistance is near ~4,512 and ~14,032 respectively. Support is at the rapidly rising 10-and-21-DMA (4,279/13,158). The distribution day count stands at five and three with one day expiring on the S&P 500 next week.

O’Neil Health Care Weekly

XLV traded flat last week, consolidating the move off lows just below resistance at its 200-DMA ($130.89), followed by its 50-DMA ($131.79). Its RS line remains near lows, warranting an underweight sector positioning. The Medical
Distribution group (ABC, CAH, MCK) looks strong in recent days with multiple breakouts to close the week.

Market View

The U.S. market status remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq traded relatively flat for the week,
consolidating sharp recent gains above 10-DMA (4,254/13,095) and 21-DMA (4,214/12,864) support. The S&P 500 is
testing resistance at 4,325 with the next level at ~4,385. The next level of resistance on the Nasdaq is ~13,700. The
distribution day count stands at five and two, respectively, with one day expiring on the S&P 500 next week.