O’Neil Health Care Weekly

XLV rose 218bps last week and now faces direct resistance at its 200-DMA ($130.94) followed by its 50-DMA ($131.49). Despite the rally, its RS line remains near lows, warranting an underweight sector positioning. The majority of groups are chopping without trend in a range with recent improvement coming from Medical Services including Hospitals and Outpatient Care as well as Medical Products. Managed Care is also showing near-term strength, though individual ideas are trading more mixed with still quite a bit of overhead.

Market View

The U.S. market status remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 convincingly cleared above resistance at 4,200 this week and is now set to test the next level at 4,325. The Nasdaq closed above resistance at 13,181 with the next level at ~13,700. Support for both indices is along the rising 10-DMA (4,198/12,878) and 21-DMA (4,170/12,646). The distribution day count stands at seven and four, respectively, with three days expiring on the S&P 500 and two on the Nasdaq next week.

O’Neil Health Care Weekly

XLV declined 290bps last week closing below 200-DMA ($131) support, which will now act as resistance. The next level of support is at $123.60. Its RS line continues to make lower lows, warranting an underweight sector positioning. There are few groups or ideas working within the sector, with the best acting names simply in consolidation. We recommend a patient approach to adding risk until we see more proper setups.

Market View

The U.S. market status remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 rallied from 50-DMA (4,100) support for the third time in the last month and is now again testing resistance just above 4,200 before the next level of 4,325. The Nasdaq rallied strongly from 21-DMA (12,442) support and is now trading just under the next level of resistance of 13,181. The distribution day count stands at seven and three, respectively, with one day expiring on the S&P 500 next week and multiple days falling off both indices the week after.

O’Neil Health Care Weekly

XLV declined 67 bps last week, shaking out below its 50-and 200-DMA (~$131) before closing narrowly above Friday. Resistance remains $135.81. Though absolute price action remains intact, XLV’s RS line made a lower low last week, warranting a reduction in sector weight to equal or underweight. Medical Services, the Distributors, and Biotech stocks are holding up well, while Medical Devices are consolidating. Managed Care and Bio-Processing remain out of favor.

Market View

The U.S. market status remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 made a new year-to-date high Thursday, clearing resistance at 4,195. The next level of resistance is 4,325, while near-term support is again the rising 21-DMA (4,133). The Nasdaq, which made a new year-to-date high last week, is now facing resistance at ~12,655, with the next level at 13,181. Support is also the rising 21-DMA (12,284). The distribution day count stands at seven and three, respectively, with one day expiring on each index next week.

O’Neil Health Care Weekly

XLV declined ~1% last week, still consolidating gains above its 200-DMA ($131.12). The next level of resistance is $135.81. Its RS line declined over the last week, but is still holding previous lows, warranting an equal/overweight sector positioning. Action was fairly broad (see heat map), with distributors (driven by MCK) leading last week. Overall, Biotech and Medical Devices are acting best, while Bio-Production remains out of favor.

Market View

The U.S. market status remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 pulled back for a second straight week, remaining rangebound below year-to-date high resistance at 4,195 and above support at its 50-DMA (4,058). The Nasdaq made a new year-to-date high Wednesday, clearing above resistance at 12,269. The next level of resistance is ~12,655 before 13,181 while near-term support is again the rising 21-DMA (12,135). The distribution day count stands at six and five, respectively

O’Neil Health Care Weekly

XLV traded relatively flat for a third straight week, consolidating gains above all key moving averages including the 200-
DMA ($131.08). Its RS line was flat over the last week, but still holding trend, warranting an equal/overweight sector
positioning. Drug stocks have been leading over the last few weeks driven by acquisitions, earnings and positive trial
results. After leading early through earnings season, Hospitals have pulled back to levels of support. Other areas are
mixed with Bioproduction remaining out of favor.

Market View

The U.S. market status remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rallied from 50-DMA (4,042/11,846) support for a second straight week to remain within a range and just below resistance at February highs (4,195/12,269). The distribution day count increased to five and six, respectively, with one day expiring on the Nasdaq next week.