XLV rose 195bps last week, making a new 52-week high. Near-term support remains the rising 21-DMA ($139.51) with the next level of resistance at the all-time high of $143.42. Though technical action remains positive, the overall rally within the sector has been narrow. Further, its RS line remains in a longer-term downtrend, unable to make higher highs and still warranting an under-to-equal weight sector positioning.
Author: Raj Gupta
Market View
The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 1.4% and 1.1%, respectively, this week. The indices rose for a fourth week and for the thirteenth time in 14 weeks. Indices bounced from support at respective 21-DMAs (4,840/15,228) and once again made new 52-week (S&P 500 made all-time) highs to end the week. The distribution day count for both indices remains at six and three, respectively. However, four distribution days on the S&P 500 and two on the Nasdaq are set to expire next week.
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV traded relatively flat last week, falling 14bps and testing support at its 21-DMA ($138.50). The sector is still consolidating with resistance between $141.56 and $143.42 (all-time highs). Its RS line pulled back sharply, warranting an under-to- equal-weight sector positioning.
Market View
The U.S. market is in a Confirmed Uptrend. Indices gained ~1% for the week as the S&P 500 continues to trade near all-time
highs while the Nasdaq is only ~5% off its all-time high of ~16,200. Support for both indices is at their respective rising 10-DMA
(4,840/15,282). The distribution day count stands at five and two, respectively, with none expiring next week.
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV declined 75bps last week, pulling back to 21-DMA ($137.97) support after becoming short-term overbought. The sector is still testing resistance between $141.77 and $143.42 (all-time highs). Its RS line pulled back sharply last week, warranting an equal-weight sector positioning.
Market View
The U.S. market has been shifted back to a Confirmed Uptrend from Uptrend Under Pressure. The S&P 500 gained 1.2%
for the week, breaking into fresh all-time highs after rising from support at its 21-DMA. The Nasdaq rose 2.3% and pushed above its
December peak of 15,150 to make new two-year highs. First support for the indices is once again the rising 10-DMA (4,769/14,928).
The S&P 500 has no remaining overhead, while the Nasdaq is about 4% below the next level of potential resistance from December
2021 peak of ~15,900. The distribution day count stands at six and three, respectively, with none set to expire next week.
IPO Rewind
Attached is our monthly IPO Rewind report. This report identifies a select group of IPOs or spin-offs that have priced in the last two years, giving them time to digest any initial volatility. Our selected ideas display positive fundamental trends with strong top- and bottom-line consensus estimates, and IPO Rewind provides an efficient way to review these ideas that we believe warrant attention.
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV gained 101bps last week and is now testing resistance between $141.77 and $143.42 (all-time highs). Look for support at the
rising 21-DMA ($137.39). Its RS line is consolidating a strong move from lows constructively, warranting an equal-to-overweight
sector positioning.
Market View
The U.S. market remains in an Uptrend Under Pressure. The S&P 500 bounced off support at its 21-DMA (4,724) and is retesting 52-week highs (4,793). The Nasdaq held above price support (14,446) at the top of the prior base consolidation, which coincides with July highs and has regained its 21-DMA (14,770). The distribution day count stands at five and three, respectively.
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV gained over 2% last week, strongly outperforming the broader index on the back of larger cap defensive ideas across Pharma
(PPH). ABBV, AMGN, GSK, LLY, MRK, and NVS have rallied sharply to start the year with many breaking out. Managed Care also
caught an early bid with most ideas including UNH (reporting Friday morning), CI, and MOH moving back on the right side of bases.
Though positive to see Health Care outperform, the majority of larger cap pharma are long-term rangebound ideas that we would not
chase at pivot points. This week, the JPM conference takes place with multiple companies already pre-announcing numbers this
morning including DXCM. BSX also announced the acquisition of AXNX, an idea we highlighted last week. We would remain focused
on higher growth areas of the sector including Biotech (XBI) and Med Devices (IHI) which are recovering from last year’s severe
decline. Given XLV now has a rising RS line, we now recommend an equal-to overweight sector positioning.