O’Neil Market View

The U.S. market remains in a Rally Attempt. The S&P 500 rallied into its 50-DMA (4,014) multiple times this week, unable to clear resistance, but still managing to hold narrowly above its 200-DMA (3,932). The Nasdaq is finding near-term resistance at ~12,000 but is still holding above all key moving averages including its 50-DMA (11,563). Both indices remain in position to follow through as long as their March lows (S&P 500: 3,808; Nasdaq: 10,982) hold.

O’Neil Health Care Weekly

XLV rallied 1.4% last week from its longer-term range of support at ~$124. Despite the move, it remains below multiple
levels of resistance including the 21-DMA ($127.82) followed by the 50-DMA and 200-DMA which are both trading just
above $130. The relative strength line remains off recent lows, but has not made a higher high, still warranting an under
to equal weight sector positioning.

Market View

The U.S. market is in a Rally Attempt. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are consolidating after bouncing higher earlier this week. The market status will remain in a Rally attempt until a follow though day (+1.7% on higher d/d volume) occurs on either index and then upgraded to a Confirmed Uptrend or downgraded to Downtrend if the March 13th low (S&P 500: 3,808; Nasdaq: 10,982). is breached on both indices.

O’Neil Health Care Weekly

XLV fell 3.9% to new YTD lows last week. It is the worst performing sector YTD, down ~9%. The sector is now sitting on a longer-term range of support at ~$124. Though we do believe the sector is oversold and due to bounce in the current range, there is now significant overhead supply and resistance above current levels with few ideas in position to buy. The relative strength line has rallied from lows in the last week, but has not made a higher high, still warranting an under to equal weight sector positioning.

Market View

The U.S. market has been downgraded to a Downtrend- The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed decisively below 50-and200-DMA (S&P 500:3,940,Nasdaq:11,402) support after selling pressure increased this week. The next level of price
support on the S&P 500 is near ~3,800 while the Nasdaq is currently testing support at its 100-DMA (11,136).

O’Neil Health Care Weekly

XLV rallied for the first time in 10 weeks, despite being the third worst performing sector with gains of only 50bps. Its RS
line is back to testing lows warranting an equal to underweight sector positioning. The sector faces heavy resistance at
multiple declining moving averages including its 200-DMA ($130.60).

Market View

The U.S. market remains in an Uptrend Under Pressure. We will shift the market status back to Confirmed Uptrend should indices hold above their respective 21-DMA in the coming days. The S&P 500 rallied from 200-DMA (3,940) support this week to reclaim all key moving averages including its 21-DMA (4,027). The next level of resistance is ~4,100 before year-to-date highs (4,195). The Nasdaq also regained all major moving averages including its 21-DMA (11,577) after rallying off its 50-DMA (11,249) Thursday. The distribution day count stands at seven and three, respectively, with one day expiring on the S&P 500 Monday.

O’Neil Health Care Weekly

XLV declined for a ninth straight week, this time with significant losses of 2.6%. The sector has yet to have an up week
this year and has now broken its 200-DMA. The next level of support is at ~$125. Despite the decline, its RS line is still
holding trend off recent lows, warranting an equal weight sector positioning.

Market View

The U.S. market is in an Uptrend Under Pressure. The S&P 500 broke its 21-DMA (4,050) Tuesday, followed by a break of its 50-DMA (3,980) Friday. Both levels will now act as near-term resistance. The index is now sitting on 200-DMA (3,940) support, followed by the rising 100-DMA (3,914). The Nasdaq broke its 21-DMA (11,624) and 200-DMA (11,406) this week, with the next level of support at its rising 50-DMA (11,190).  The distribution day count now stands at six and three, respectively, with no expiration next week.

O’Neil Health Care Weekly

XLV declined for an eighth straight week, despite losses of only 38bps. The difference the last two week’s is that its
relative strength (RS) line versus both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq has ticked higher as it comes into absolute support at its
200-DMA ($130.60). As stated last week, we believe this warrants a move from under to equal weight.