The U.S. market was moved to an Uptrend Under Pressure. This week, the S&P 500 declined 1.7% and is 2% off highs while the Nasdaq was down 2.5% and is 3% off highs. The S&P 500 broke below its 21-DMA, but is still slightly above the 50-DMA (6,010). The Nasdaq breached both 21- and 50-DMAs, leaving next support at the 100-DMA (19,192). The distribution day count stands at six apiece after each index picked up one on Friday.
Author: Raj Gupta
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV fell 1.1% last week, unable to hold above its 200-DMA ($147.29) and December highs at ~$148-$149. This level remains key
near-term resistance with support at the flattening 50-DMA ($142.54). Overall, XLV is now consolidating an oversold rally from
December lows resulting in the RS line falling sharply over the last two weeks, and again warranting an underweight sector
positioning.
Market View
The U.S. market remains in an Uptrend Under Pressure. Despite bouncing 1-2% higher for the week, indices remain in a sideways range just below all -time highs (6,128, 20,204). Should indices close at a new all-time high, the market status will shift back to a Confirmed Uptrend. Until then, support is at the 50 DMA (6,008, 19,667) with four and five distribution days on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq respectively.
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV traded relatively flat last week, falling 30bps after rallying for six straight weeks. The index now faces strong resistance at its 200-
DMA ($147.13) with support at the rising 21-DMA ($143.34). Though its RS line has risen from lows, it has yet to make a higher high,
still warranting an equal-to underweight sector positioning.
Market View
The U.S. market remains in an Uptrend Under Pressure. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were down 0.2% and 0.5% this week. Indices are consolidating 2–3% below all-time highs and continue to fluctuate around their 50-DMA. (6,001, 19,606). The distribution day count is at five on the S&P 500 and six on the Nasdaq after the addition of one each on Friday.
To close the week, five sectors were above their 50-DMA, while six were below. Energy, Basic Material, and Financial traded up about 1% each. Most other sectors were either up or down very slightly, except Transportation and Consumer Cyclical, which fell 1.3% and 2.9%, respectively.
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV rallied another 1.8% last week, and is now up 6.7% for the year and ~8% off December lows. The index is now facing heavy
resistance at its 200-DMA ($147). Its RS line is attempting to make a higher high, warranting an under- to equal weight sector
positioning. Much of the rally has been lagging ideas repairing severe losses in Q4, with many still trading within longer-term ranges.
There are 65 profitable Health Care ideas over $1B in market cap that have outperformed XLV this year. These ideas are up a median
of 13% this year, but are still trading a median of 7% off 52-wk highs. We recommend a continued focus on leading ideas that respond
positively to earnings and are trading at or near new highs.
Market View
The U.S. market remains in an Uptrend Under Pressure. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are consolidating 1–3% below
all-time highs but above support at their respective 50-DMAs on (5,990, 19,539). The distribution day count remains at six
on each index, with three expiring next week.
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV gained another 3% last week, clearing above its 50-DMA ($142), which will now act as near-term support. The index now faces
key resistance at its 200-DMA ($147; +2%). Though the index has started showing improvement, rallying 6% off December lows, its
RS line remains near lows given the rally in the broader market. With indices under severe selling pressure this morning, we expect to
see near-term relative improvement in Health Care. With that said, we would still wait to see XLV clear and hold above all its key
moving averages before shifting from an underweight sector positioning.
Market View
The U.S. market was shifted back to a Confirmed Uptrend from an Uptrend Under Pressure. The S&P 500 was up 1.7% this week and made a new all-time high before closing just below December 2024 highs. The Nasdaq also rose 1.7% and closed about 1% off December 2024 all-time highs. Support for both indices is at the rising 21-DMA, 2% below current levels. The distribution day count remains at six on each index, after one expired on each on Friday (January 24, 2025) after market close, but each also picked up a new one on Friday.
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV gained 39 bps last week and is now 3% off its December low. Despite this, its RS line has begun to roll over again due to the
broader market rebounding over the past week combined with megacap constituents (LLY, UNH, JNJ, ABBV, MRK, etc) still in decline.
Remain selective and underweight the sector until its RS line begins to make higher highs and all moving averages including the 50-
DMA ($142.41) and 200-DMA ($146.74) have been regained.