XLV fell 17bps last week, in-line with the S&P 500 which kept its relative strength (RS) line at new highs. The sector is
now testing 50-DMA ($134.62) support with the next level below this at the flattening 200-DMA ($131.11). Resistance
remains ~$140 to $142. With an RS line remaining at new highs, an overweight sector positioning remains warranted.
Author: Raj Gupta
Market View
The U.S. market is in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 staged a Day 5 follow-through Thursday, resulting in a rules-based upgrade of the market status. To remain intact, the S&P 500 should hold the December 22 low of 3,764. Despite the move and subsequent upgrade, there remain multiple levels of near-term resistance, including the 10- 21-, 50-, and 100-DMA, which are trading between 3,851 and 3,903. Further, the Nasdaq has yet to stage a FTD, still trading just 3% from year-to-date lows. The earliest a FTD can take place on this index is Wednesday. The 50-DMA (10,911) remains primary resistance despite the 10- and 21-DMA now trading below that level.
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV gained 42bps last week, outperforming the S&P 500 for a sixth straight week and sending it RS line to another new
high. On an absolute basis, the 50-DMA ($133.79) is acting as logical near-term support with resistance still at ~$141.
We would expect further consolidation around current levels. With an RS line continuing to make new highs, an
overweight sector positioning remains warranted.
Market View
The U.S. market remains in a Downtrend. The S&P 500 traded relatively flat this week, remaining just below primary near-term resistance at its 50-DMA (3,886) and just above support near 3,800. The Nasdaq fell another 1.9% and now is trading only 4% from year-to-date lows. Support is between 10,088 and 10,262, before the Covid pivot of 9,838. Primary near-term resistance remains the 50-DMA (10,930). The earliest a follow-through day can take place is Wednesday on the S&P 500 and Thursday on the Nasdaq (Monday holiday).
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV fell 1.8% last week, outperforming the broader market for a fifth straight week and sending its RS line to a higher
high. On an absolute basis, XLV, like the market, is pulling back, breaking near-term 21-DMA ($137) support which may
act as near-term resistance before ~$141. Support is now the rising 50-DMA ($132.52). With an RS line continuing to
make new highs, an overweight sector positioning remains warranted.
Market View
The U.S. market has been downgraded to Downtrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closed below 50-DMA (S&P 500: 3,864; Nasdaq: 10,928) support this week. Both are again trading below all key moving averages with multiple levels of resistance just above current prices. The next level of support is 3,806 and 10,262, respectively.
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV fell 1.3% last week, outperforming the broader market and sending its RS line to a higher high. Resistance is
between ~$140 and all-time highs of $143.42. Near-term support is the rising 21-DMA at $136.27. We recommend an
overweight sector positioning.
Market View
The U.S. market is in an Uptrend Under Pressure. The S&P 500 closed back below its 200-DMA (4,037) this week, falling back into a range and just above near-term support at the 100-DMA (3,930). The Nasdaq reversed from 100-DMA (11,479) resistance to close narrowly above 50-DMA (10,922) support. The distribution day count stands at six and four, respectively, with one day expiring on the S&P 500 next week.
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV rallied for a fourth straight week, gaining 1.9% and now trading just 3% off highs. The sector is set to hit resistance at
$140.82 before all-time highs of $143.42. Should a pullback occur, look for the 21-DMA ($134.94) to act as support. The
relative strength line is nearing highs, warranting an equal to overweight sector positioning.
Market View
The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 regained its 200-DMA (4,046) this week and is now
consolidating gains above all key moving averages. Support below this level is the rising 21-DMA (3,960) with the next
level of resistance at the September high of 4,119. The Nasdaq is still finding resistance at its 100-DMA (11,503) with the
next level above that at the rolling 200-DMA (12,026). The distribution day count stands at five and three, respectively, with
two days expiring on the S&P 500 and one on the Nasdaq next week.