The U.S. market has been upgraded to a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq staged a Day 5 follow-through Friday, jumping over 3% in higher day/day volume. This is now the fifth FTD of the year. Both indices cleared the 10- and 21-DMA, which will now serve as near-term support, while the next level of logical resistance is the sharply rolling 50-DMA (S&P 500: 4,066; Nasdaq: 11,998).
Author: Raj Gupta
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV declined another 4.5% last week, breaking to eight-month lows and through $124 support. Despite the decline its RS
line continues to trend higher. We now view the next range of support between $116 to $119. Resistance is the falling 10-
DMA ($123.80) and 21-DMA ($126.55).
Market View
The U.S. market is in a Downtrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq gapped down to year-to-date lows this week in heavy volume killing the fourth follow-through day (FTD) this year. The seven bear markets since 1971 had a median of six failed FTDs. The next level of support on the S&P 500 is ~3,549, while support on the Nasdaq is ~10,519 before ~10,200. Near-term resistance remains the falling 10-DMA (S&P 500: 3,839; Nasdaq: 11,200).
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV declined 3.3%, falling for a second straight week and back below all key moving averages. The 10, 21- and now 50-
DMA are all rolling lower and will act as near-term resistance going forward. The 10-DMA is trading at $129.34. Long-term
support remains ~$124. Should this level break, the next level of support is ~$119.
Market View
The U.S. market is in an Uptrend Under Pressure. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq broke sharply below a two-week trading
range and 21-DMA support (S&P 500: 4,073; Nasdaq: 11,930) Thursday, before gapping down below the May 26 followthrough day low Friday. The distribution day count increased to three each. The market will be downgraded to Downtrend
should year-to-date lows (S&P 500: 3,810; Nasdaq: 11,035) undercut.
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV retraced last week’s gains, reversing from 50-DMA ($133.67) resistance to close 3.1% lower and below its 10- and
21-DMA. All three moving averages will now act as near-term resistance. The next level of support is $125.28 before
~$124.
Market View
The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq held slightly above 21-DMA support
(S&P 500: 4,086; Nasdaq: 11,981) this week, consolidating sharp gains off recent lows in choppy fashion. The next level
of logical resistance for both indices is the sharply falling 50-DMA (S&P 500: 4,249; Nasdaq: 12,773). Following Tuesday’s
rebalancing volume spike, volume came in well below average for the remaining three sessions allowing the distribution
day count to stay at one each.
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV gained 3.3% last week, sharply underperforming 6%+ gains for the broader indices. Despite the lag, its RS line is still
trending upwards. The ETF now faces resistance directly at its 50-DMA ($134.08). Should it clear above this level, the
next level of resistance is 138.42. Support is now the curling 10- and 21-DMA ($131.05).
Market View
The U.S. market is in a Confirmed Uptrend. The Nasdaq staged a day five follow-through on Thursday, gaining 2.7% in
higher day/day volume. The index regained both its 10-DMA (11,687) and 21-DMA (11,925) which will now act as nearterm downside support. The rolling 50-DMA (12,920) is now the next level of logical resistance. The S&P 500 rallied in
lower volume, but also regained its 10-DMA (4,024) and 21-DMA (4,066), with the 50-DMA (4,277) now also the next level
of resistance.
Eight of 11 sectors gained 5% or more this week, led by Energy, Retail and Consumer Cyclical, which gained 7-8%.
Energy continues to push further into highs and is now trading ~30% above its 200-DMA which is the biggest extension
since June 2021. Technology gained ~6%, clearing above its 10- and 21-DMA with the 50-DMA now trading ~6% above
current levels. Energy and Utility are still the only sectors trading above both the 50- and 200-DMA. The best performing
industry groups this week included Consumer Electronics, Department Stores, Discount Retail, Specialty Retail, Lodging,
Oil & Gas, Solar, Semiconductors and Banks. The worst performing groups included TV Media, Biotech, Pharma,
Outpatient Care, Generic Drugs, Agriculture, Mining, Staffing, Water Utilities, and Internet.
Market View
The U.S. market is in a Confirmed Uptrend. The Nasdaq staged a day five follow-through on Thursday, gaining 2.7% in
higher day/day volume. The index regained both its 10-DMA (11,687) and 21-DMA (11,925) which will now act as nearterm downside support. The rolling 50-DMA (12,920) is now the next level of logical resistance. The S&P 500 rallied in
lower volume, but also regained its 10-DMA (4,024) and 21-DMA (4,066), with the 50-DMA (4,277) now also the next level
of resistance.