O’Neil Health Care Weekly

XLV declined for a ninth straight week, this time with significant losses of 2.6%. The sector has yet to have an up week
this year and has now broken its 200-DMA. The next level of support is at ~$125. Despite the decline, its RS line is still
holding trend off recent lows, warranting an equal weight sector positioning.

Market View

The U.S. market is in an Uptrend Under Pressure. The S&P 500 broke its 21-DMA (4,050) Tuesday, followed by a break of its 50-DMA (3,980) Friday. Both levels will now act as near-term resistance. The index is now sitting on 200-DMA (3,940) support, followed by the rising 100-DMA (3,914). The Nasdaq broke its 21-DMA (11,624) and 200-DMA (11,406) this week, with the next level of support at its rising 50-DMA (11,190).  The distribution day count now stands at six and three, respectively, with no expiration next week.

O’Neil Health Care Weekly

XLV declined for an eighth straight week, despite losses of only 38bps. The difference the last two week’s is that its
relative strength (RS) line versus both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq has ticked higher as it comes into absolute support at its
200-DMA ($130.60). As stated last week, we believe this warrants a move from under to equal weight.

Market View

The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq traded relatively flat for the week, continuing to consolidate year-to-date gains narrowly above 21-DMA (4,077/11,684) support. We will shift the market status to Uptrend Under Pressure should both indices close below this moving average. Support below this level for the S&P 500 is the 50-DMA (3,978), while the Nasdaq’s next level is the 200-DMA (11,422). Distribution increased to five and three, respectively, with one day expiring on each index next week.

O’Neil Health Care Weekly

XLV declined for a seventh straight week, despite losses of only 15bps. The difference this week was that its relative
strength (RS) line versus both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ticked higher as it comes into absolute support at its 200-DMA
($130.57). This warrants a move from under to equal weight as the sector is due to bounce from oversold
conditions.

Market View

The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq pulled back towards 21-DMA (4,054/11,548) support this week, consolidating sharp year-to-date gains. Should this level break, the next level for the S&P 500 is the 50-DMA (3,969), while the Nasdaq’s next level is the 200-DMA (11,438). Distribution remains relatively low at three and two, respectively, with no expiration next week.

O’Neil Health Care Weekly

XLV declined for a sixth straight week, despite losses of only 11bps. The sector continues to heavily underperform the
broader market, with its relative strength (RS) line versus both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting another low. Stay
underweight the sector and remain patient. On an absolute basis, XLV is nearing 200-DMA ($130.67) support.

Market View

The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rallied strongly for a second straight week, clearing above 4,100 and 200-DMA resistance, respectively. Near-term support is now the sharply rising 10-DMA (S&P 500: 4,076; Nasdaq: 11,645). The distribution day count stands at four and two, respectively, with two days expiring on the S&P 500 and one on the Nasdaq next week.

O’Neil Health Care Weekly

XLV declined 78bps last week, its fifth straight down week. Its relative strength line (versus the S&P 500 and Nasdaq)
continues to sharply decline, warranting an equal to underweight sector positioning which we have now been
recommending for the past three weeks. On an absolute basis, support remains the 200-DMA ($130.80).

Market View

The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rallied strongly this week, with both now trading above all key moving averages including the 200-DMA (S&P 500: 3,958; Nasdaq: 11,507). This level will now act as initial near-term support until other shorter-term moving averages rise above. The next level of resistance on the S&P 500 is 4,100 to 4,119, while the Nasdaq’s next test is its September high of 12,270. The distribution day count remains at three and two, respectively.