The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq traded relatively flat for a third straight
week, consolidating gains above 21-DMA (4,093/12,009) support and below February high resistance (4,195/12,269). The
distribution day count stands at one and three, respectively.
Author: Raj Gupta
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV rallied 79bps last week, in-line with the S&P 500, but better than the Nasdaq for a third straight week. It is now
approaching the next level of resistance between $135-$137 with support still at the 200-DMA ($130.74). Its RS line is
hovering near three-month highs, warranting an overweight sector positioning. Medical Products and Services
continue to lead.
Market View
The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq traded relatively flat for a second straight
week, consolidating gains above 10- and 21-DMA (4,062/11,945) support and below February high resistance
(4,195/12,269). The distribution day count stands at zero and three, respectively.
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV rallied 3.1% last week, sharply outperforming the broader market. It regained its 50- and 200-DMA on good volume with the next level of resistance at $134-$137. Support is now the 200-DMA ($130.57). Its RS line made a higher high for the first time this year, warranting a shift to overweight. Action was fairly broad (see heat map), with Services leading last week. Biotech and Bio-production remain out of favor.
Market View
The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 traded relatively flat this week, consolidating sharp three-week gains above 10- and 21-DMA (4,027) support with the next level of resistance at the February high of 4,195. The Nasdaq pulled back 1.1%, also consolidating gains above its 21-DMA (11,868) with resistance at its February high of 12,269. The S&P 500 has yet to record a distribution day, while the Nasdaq has added one.
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV rallied 1.7% last week into a big resistance test at its coinciding 50- and 200-DMA, trading at ~$130.35. Look for the index to hold 21-DMA ($127.63) support on a pullback and eventually regain the 200-DMA to gain upside momentum. Despite a good move off recent lows, the index continues to lag the broader market with its relative strength line making new lows versus both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. We continue to recommend an underweight sector positioning.
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV rallied 1.1% last week continuing to hold logical support near ~$124, but still below multiple levels of moving average resistance, including the sharply falling 50-DMA ($130.29). The relative strength line remains narrowly off recent lows, but has not made a higher high, still warranting an under to equal weight sector positioning. We continue to notice an improvement in the Medical Products industry group with multiple ideas again setting up on their right sides.
O’Neil Market View
The U.S. market remains in a Rally Attempt. The S&P 500 rallied into its 50-DMA (4,014) multiple times this week, unable to clear resistance, but still managing to hold narrowly above its 200-DMA (3,932). The Nasdaq is finding near-term resistance at ~12,000 but is still holding above all key moving averages including its 50-DMA (11,563). Both indices remain in position to follow through as long as their March lows (S&P 500: 3,808; Nasdaq: 10,982) hold.
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV rallied 1.4% last week from its longer-term range of support at ~$124. Despite the move, it remains below multiple
levels of resistance including the 21-DMA ($127.82) followed by the 50-DMA and 200-DMA which are both trading just
above $130. The relative strength line remains off recent lows, but has not made a higher high, still warranting an under
to equal weight sector positioning.
Market View
The U.S. market is in a Rally Attempt. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are consolidating after bouncing higher earlier this week. The market status will remain in a Rally attempt until a follow though day (+1.7% on higher d/d volume) occurs on either index and then upgraded to a Confirmed Uptrend or downgraded to Downtrend if the March 13th low (S&P 500: 3,808; Nasdaq: 10,982). is breached on both indices.
