The U.S. market remains in an Uptrend Under Pressure. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 2–3% this week and regained their respective 50-DMAs (5,968, 19,415). Look for indices to consolidate above moving average support and attempt to form the right side of base. The distribution day count remains at six and seven, respectively, with one day expiring on each index next week.
Author: Raj Gupta
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV gained 49bps last week to now trade ~3% off recent lows ($136) and ~3% below 50-DMA ($143) resistance. The sector has
begun to show relative improvement over the last three weeks as the broader tape has come under pressure. Despite this, the sector
remains 13% off highs and below multiple levels of price and moving average resistance, which still warrants an underweight sector
positioning.
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Key points from this report:
- Ideas are showing positive technical trends, holding above key price and/or moving average support.
- Ideas also have positive fundamental ratings and rankings and/or accelerating annual EPS growth.
- Included are 13 annotated charts.
Market View
The U.S. market remains in an Uptrend Under Pressure. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq declined 1.9% and 2.3%,
respectively, this week. The S&P 500 fell back below the 50-DMA (5,952) after a brief retake, and is testing support at the
100-DMA (5,820). The Nasdaq closed below its 50-DMA (19,319) for the first time since mid-September 2024, leaving
next support around the top of the prior base (18,670).
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV closed the week flat, holding support at ~$136. The sector now faces near-term resistance at its rolling 21-DMA ($140.16),
followed by its sharply falling 50-DMA ($144). Though the index has steadied in recent weeks, it remains 13% off highs with an RS
line near lows, still warranting an underweight sector positioning.
Market View
The U.S. market remains in an Uptrend Under Pressure. This week, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq declined 0.5% a piece despite a strong close on Friday. The S&P 500 has immediate support at its 100-DMA (5,804; -2%), while it is testing the first level of resistance at its 50-DMA (5,945). The Nasdaq bounced from support at its 50-DMA (19,236), and is testing resistance at its 21-DMA(19,578). The distribution day count remains elevated at six and seven, respectively.
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV rallied just 69bps last week, after falling over 6% during the prior three weeks. The sector is sitting above longer-term support
between $135-$138, despite still facing multiple levels of resistance including the falling 21-DMA ($141.20). Its RS line remains
near lows, still warranting an underweight sector positioning.
Market View
The U.S. market remains in an Uptrend Under Pressure. Indices closed the week with a small gain despite pulling back on Friday. The S&P 500 is testing support at its 50-DMA (5,941) while the Nasdaq is testing its 21-DMA (19,643) followed by its 50-DMA (19,160) which is ~3% lower. The distribution day count stands at three and four on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, respectively.
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV fell over 2% for a third straight week and is now testing longer-term support between $135 to $138. Though XLV is again oversold,
it is trading below all moving averages and multiple layers of price resistance. Its first test, should it bounce, will be near-term
resistance at the falling 21-DMA ($142.15). Overall, its RS line remains at multi-year lows, still warranting an underweight sector
positioning. XLV is down 10.4% this quarter, its worst since March 2020 (Covid). The sector is now up just 1.2% for the year vs 24%
for SPY and 26% for QQQ.
Market View
The U.S. market remains in an Uptrend Under Pressure. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were down 2.0% and 1.8%,
respectively, this week. The S&P 500 breached its 21-DMA and then its 50-DMA for the first time in three months. It then
retook and closed slightly above the 50-DMA (5,927). Next support would be around 3% lower at the 100-DMA (5,752).
The Nasdaq breached its 21-DMA but held well above the 50-DMA. It retook and closed above the 21-DMA and 3% above
the 50-DMA (19,040). The distribution day count on each index stands at three and four, after one expired on the S&P 500
after Friday’s close.