The U.S. market remains in an Uptrend Under Pressure. Some of the immediate pressure was relieved as the S&P
500 (+1.9%) and Nasdaq (+4.6%) posted solid gains for the week and retook respective 21-DMAs (S&P 500: 3,872;
Nasdaq: 11,392). The 21-DMA will now act as the first level of support for each before recently established lows at the end
of June (S&P 500: 3,839; Nasdaq: 10,850). Indices avoided distribution all week, and the distribution day count stands at
one and two, respectively
Author: Raj Gupta
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV traded relatively flat last week, holding sharp gains from the week prior and continuing to sharply outperform the broader market. The index was able to hold near-term support at its 21-DMA ($127.28) before rallying just above its 50-DMA ($129) to close the week. Should XLV remain above its 50-DMA, the next level of logical resistance is the 200-DMA ($132). We continue to recommend an overweight position in the sector as its RS line continues to rise.
Market View
The U.S. market is in an Uptrend Under Pressure. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq reversed from their respective 10-WMA early in the week, adding distribution and breaking below the 21-DMA (S&P 500: 3,872; Nasdaq: 11,343). There is no clear support above year-to-date lows (S&P 500: 3,636; Nasdaq:10,565), which, if breached, would result in the market status moving back to Downtrend. The distribution day count stands at one and two, respectively.
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV gained nearly 8% last week, retracing the majority of the last two weeks of losses. The ETF now faces direct
resistance at its 50-DMA ($129.96). Given a very sharp move into resistance, look for consolidation to be contained above
the 21-DMA ($126.40). Overall, Health Care was the second best performing sector last week and is the best performing
over the last four- and eight weeks with an RS line at new highs, warranting an overweight position.
Market View
The U.S. market has been upgraded to a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq staged a Day 5 follow-through Friday, jumping over 3% in higher day/day volume. This is now the fifth FTD of the year. Both indices cleared the 10- and 21-DMA, which will now serve as near-term support, while the next level of logical resistance is the sharply rolling 50-DMA (S&P 500: 4,066; Nasdaq: 11,998).
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV declined another 4.5% last week, breaking to eight-month lows and through $124 support. Despite the decline its RS
line continues to trend higher. We now view the next range of support between $116 to $119. Resistance is the falling 10-
DMA ($123.80) and 21-DMA ($126.55).
Market View
The U.S. market is in a Downtrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq gapped down to year-to-date lows this week in heavy volume killing the fourth follow-through day (FTD) this year. The seven bear markets since 1971 had a median of six failed FTDs. The next level of support on the S&P 500 is ~3,549, while support on the Nasdaq is ~10,519 before ~10,200. Near-term resistance remains the falling 10-DMA (S&P 500: 3,839; Nasdaq: 11,200).
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV declined 3.3%, falling for a second straight week and back below all key moving averages. The 10, 21- and now 50-
DMA are all rolling lower and will act as near-term resistance going forward. The 10-DMA is trading at $129.34. Long-term
support remains ~$124. Should this level break, the next level of support is ~$119.
Market View
The U.S. market is in an Uptrend Under Pressure. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq broke sharply below a two-week trading
range and 21-DMA support (S&P 500: 4,073; Nasdaq: 11,930) Thursday, before gapping down below the May 26 followthrough day low Friday. The distribution day count increased to three each. The market will be downgraded to Downtrend
should year-to-date lows (S&P 500: 3,810; Nasdaq: 11,035) undercut.
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV retraced last week’s gains, reversing from 50-DMA ($133.67) resistance to close 3.1% lower and below its 10- and
21-DMA. All three moving averages will now act as near-term resistance. The next level of support is $125.28 before
~$124.