The U.S. market is in a Downtrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq found resistance near their respective 21-DMA (3,717)
and 10-DMA (10,646) after staging a strong upside reversal on Thursday. If indices hold above the low from October 13th
(S&P 500: 3,491, Nasdaq: 10,088) , the market status will shift to Rally Attempt after the close on Monday with a possible
follow-through day (+1.7% in higher d/d volume) as soon as Tuesday. Below YTD lows from October 13th , the next level
of price support is at 3,393 and 9,838 on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, respectively.
Author: Raj Gupta
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV reversed sharply from 50-DMA ($128) resistance Friday, but still managed to close 1.2% higher for the week and
narrowly above the September low of $120.70. Should this level break, the next level of support is $118.75. XLV’s relative
strength (RS) line versus the S&P 500 and Nasdaq continues to rise, still warranting an overweight sector positioning.
Market View
The U.S. market remains in a Rally Attempt. Despite Friday’s sharp gap lower, indices are still holding above last week’s lows (S&P 500: 3,584; Nasdaq: 10,572) keeping the attempted rally alive. A follow-through day (+1.7% in higher d/d volume) above these lows would still upgrade the market status to Confirmed Uptrend, while an undercut would kill the attempt. Near-term resistance is again the rolling 10-DMA (S&P 500: 3,720; Nasdaq: 10,967). The next level of support below year-to-date lows on the S&P 500 is 3,393, while the next level on the Nasdaq is 10,519, followed by 9,838.
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV fell 1.3% last week and is now approaching the next level of support at ~$119. Near-term resistance remains
the falling 21-DMA (~$125). Despite the decline, the sector continues to outperform both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq,
sending its RS line back to year-to-date highs and still warranting an overweight sector positioning.
Market View
The U.S. market is in a Downtrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq traded lower for a third straight week, closing at new year-to-date lows Friday. The next level of support on the S&P 500 is ~3,588, followed by 3,393, while the next level on the Nasdaq is 10,519 (below 10,565), followed by 9,838. Indices remain below all key moving averages, including near-term resistance at the 10-DMA (S&P 500: 3,718; Nasdaq: 10,997).
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV declined another 3.7% last week, breaking support in the $124 to $125 range. The next level is ~$119. Despite the
decline, the sector continues to outperform both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, sending its RS line into higher highs and still
warranting an overweight sector positioning. Should the sector rebound, look for resistance at the falling 21-DMA
($126.72).
Market View
The U.S. market is in a Downtrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are now testing year-to-date lows at 3,636 and 10,565,
respectively. Should these lows break, the next level of support on the S&P 500 is ~3,588 followed by 3,393, while the
next level on the Nasdaq is 10,519 followed by 9,838. Indices have become downside extended versus all moving
averages including near-term resistance at the 10-DMA (S&P 500: 3,847; Nasdaq: 11,381).
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV fell 2.3% last week after reversing from 200-DMA ($131.74) resistance. Support remains the $124 to $125
range. Should this level break, the next level is ~$119. We recommended shifting from underweight to overweight
the sector in late August with that view still unchanged. The RS line continues to move higher versus the S&P 500
and Nasdaq.
Market View
The U.S. market is in a Downtrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq gapped down below last week’s lows killing the rally attempt. There is now no clear level of support above year-to-date lows (S&P 500: 3,636; Nasdaq: 10,565). The 10- and 21-DMA are again rolling over and will act as near-term resistance should indices rebound.
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV gained 4.4% last week, narrowly regaining its 50-DMA ($130.02), but still trading below heavy resistance between its 200-
DMA ($131.83) and ~$135. We view support between $124-$125. The relative strength line (vs S&P 500) is still trending upwards, warranting an equal to overweight sector positioning.