The U.S. market is in a Downtrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq declined 2.4% and 2.8%, respectively, each falling for a
sixth straight week. Despite another steep weekly decline, both indices are now two days off recent lows (S&P 500:
3,858; Nasdaq: 11,108) and set to again face resistance at the sharply falling 10-DMA (S&P 500: 4,063; Nasdaq: 11,965)
and 21-DMA (S&P 500: 4,167; Nasdaq: 12,430).
Author: Raj Gupta
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV reversed from 200-DMA ($133) resistance, closing down for a fourth straight week. Despite another pullback, the
ETF’s RS line is making highs, outperforming the broader market. There is still support between ~$127.50 to $129, before year-to-date lows of $124.06.
Market View
The U.S. market is in a Rally Attempt. The S&P 500 reversed from 21-DMA resistance giving up early week gains to close down for a fifth straight week. Despite the reversal, the index is still holding above the May 2 intraday low (4,062), which keeps the attempted rally on this index intact. The Nasdaq also reversed sharply from its 21-DMA, however, did undercut prior lows, killing the rally attempt on that index. Though a follow-through day (FTD) on the S&P 500 can still result in a market upgrade as early as Monday, the earliest the Nasdaq can stage a FTD is now Thursday. Both indices face resistance at the sharply rolling 10-DMA (S&P 500: 4,214; Nasdaq: 12,620) and 21-DMA (S&P 500: 4,285; Nasdaq: 12,944).
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV fell 2.5% last week, failing to hold support at its 200-DMA. The breakout into new highs from last month has failed.
The next range of support is between ~$127.50 and $129, before year-to-date lows at $124.06. The ETF now faces
upside resistance at all key moving averages including its 50-DMA ($134.24).
Market View
The U.S. market is in a Downtrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at year-to-date lows this week, resulting in the
second failed follow-through day of the year. The next level of support on the S&P 500 is ~4,114 before ~4,000, while
support on the Nasdaq is ~12,000.
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV fell 3.5% last week and back to its 200-DMA ($133). After initially responding favorably to JNJ and ABT earnings, the sector reversed following ISRG and HCA prints Friday. There remains a high amount of uncertainty within the sector
regarding margin pressure due to elevated costs from inflation, labor costs and supply chain constraints.
Market View
The U.S. market remains in an Uptrend Under Pressure. The S&P 500 reversed sharply from 200-DMA resistance
this week, closing down 2.7% and back below all key moving averages. It is now trading slightly below support at 4,278
before February lows of 4,114. The Nasdaq failed at its 50-DMA (13,654), declining 3.8% for the week and now just 3%
above support at March lows (12,555). The distribution day count remains elevated at seven and six, respectively.
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV pulled back 2.9% last week, retracing the majority of the breakout to new highs. Overall action, however, remains
constructive, as the index is still trading above its 21-DMA ($137.56) with an RS line hovering near highs.
Leading industry groups (Distribution, Pharma, Managed Care) continue to act well, however, all have become near-term
extended and are due to consolidate. We recommend offensively locking in partial gains, while looking to add risk back on
constructive pullbacks towards 50-DMA support.
IPO Rewind
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Market View
The U.S. market is in an Uptrend Under Pressure. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq declined for a second straight week,
closing below all major moving averages while adding distribution. The next level of support on the S&P 500 is ~4,278
while support for the Nasdaq is ~13,094 before year-to-date lows. The distribution day count has increased to five and
four, respectively.