O’Neil Health Care Weekly

XLV remains within 2% of all-time highs holding above its 21-DMA after pulling back slightly last week. The relative
strength line versus the S&P 500 has pulled in following strong gains in the broader market. Leading ideas mostly remain extended, though a handful are providing add points on pullbacks to the 21-DMA, while others are beginning to setup. We would remain overweight on Health Care.

Market View

The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are trading at or near all-time
highs with leadership expanding across multiple sectors and market caps. Support is at the rising 10- and- 21-
DMA ( S&P 500: 4,469, Nasdaq: 14,809). The distribution day count stands at three and two, respectively, with
two expiring on the S&P 500 next week.

O’Neil Health Care Weekly

Over the last five sessions, Commercial Services (CRVL), Products (ALC), and Diversified Healthcare (ABT)
led, while Generic Drugs (ABSI), Biotech (FATE), and Long-term Care (OSH) lagged. Hospitals, Diversified
Healthcare, Pharmaceuticals, and Systems/Equipment remain top-ranked industry groups. Biotech, Generic
Drugs, Long-term Care, and Outpatient Care are trading below 50- and 200-DMA.

Market View

The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq pulled back to their respective 50-
DMA before finding support and closing within the upper half of their weekly range. Support below the 50-DMA
is ~4,233 on the S&P 500 and ~14,200 on the Nasdaq. Despite adding a distribution day on Tuesday, the
overall count declined to three and two, respectively, with no expiration next week.

O’Neil Health Care Weekly

Over the last five sessions, Generic Drugs ( OGN ), Diversified Healthcare ( GSK ), and Pharmaceuticals ( PFE ) led, while
Hospitals ( LFST ), Services  ( NVTA ), and Long-term Care ( OSH ) lagged. Hospitals, Diversified Healthcare,
Pharmaceuticals, and Systems/Equipment remain top-ranked industry groups. Biotech, Long-term Care, Services, and
Outpatient Care are trading below 50- and 200-DMA.

IPO Rewind

Winners (annualized gain of 30% or greater)
• Less than half the median market cap at IPO and clearly better Day 1 performance.
• Revenue growth of ~40% three consecutive years (1 year prior to IPO, year of IPO, and year after IPO).
• Most still losing money as they IPO, but more make progress toward profits.

Losers (annualized loss of 20% or greater)
• Clearly larger IPOs, not as good Day 1 performance.
• Good revenue growth year before IPO and year of IPO (although sharply lagging winners), but big dropoff in revenue growth year after IPO.
• Similar % losing money, but difference with that no progress in the group made over three years.

Market View

U.S. Market
The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 is trending into all-time highs, while the Nasdaq
continues to consolidate within 1% of a new high and above 21-DMA support. Distribution has mostly been
avoided over the last two weeks, with the count now standing at four each, with two set to expire on the S&P 500
and three on the Nasdaq next week.

O’Neil Health Care Weekly

XLV remains within 1% of all-time highs after a small pullback to its 10-DMA to close last week. The majority of big cap constituents are holding near highs with only a select few reacting negatively to earnings. The RS line pulled back slightly, but is still holding a recent uptrend.

 

Currently, most ideas have become extended from ideal entry points. We recommend holding high RS ideas that are not abnormally extended versus short- and long-term moving averages versus how they typically trade. We will be looking for ideas to consolidate over the coming weeks to provide alternative entry points