The U.S. market remains in an Uptrend Under Pressure. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were down 2.0% and 1.8%,
respectively, this week. The S&P 500 breached its 21-DMA and then its 50-DMA for the first time in three months. It then
retook and closed slightly above the 50-DMA (5,927). Next support would be around 3% lower at the 100-DMA (5,752).
The Nasdaq breached its 21-DMA but held well above the 50-DMA. It retook and closed above the 21-DMA and 3% above
the 50-DMA (19,040). The distribution day count on each index stands at three and four, after one expired on the S&P 500
after Friday’s close.
Author: Raj Gupta
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV fell over 2% for a second straight week and is now set to test longer-term support between $138 to $140. Near-term resistance is
the falling 21-DMA ($144.73). Its RS line has fallen to another new low, still warranting an underweight sector positioning. XLV is
down 8.5% this quarter and now at risk of wiping out all YTD gains (+3.3%).
Market View
The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. Price action was mixed across indices for the week, as the S&P 500 pulled back 65 bps while the Nasdaq rose 30 bps. Support for both indices is at the rising 10-and 21-DMA (6,012,19,455). The distribution day count stands at three on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq with one day expiring on each next week.
Over the last five sessions, Consumer Cyclical rose 1.1% while nine other sectors declined led lower by Basic Material (-3%) followed by four sectors – Health Care, Capital Equipment, Utility, and Energy – falling 2% or more.
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV declined 2.1% last week, reversing from 200-DMA resistance ($147.62). This and the falling 21-DMA ($146.15) remain near-term
resistance. Support is at its recent low of $140.26. Its RS line has fallen to another new low, still warranting an underweight sector
positioning.
Market View
The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 1.0% and 3.3%, respectively, this week, and are at all-time highs. Support is at their rising 10-DMA (6,036; 19,368) and then their 21-DMA (5,985, 19,200). The distribution day count is at three and one, respectively, after two expired on the S&P 500 during the week.
IPO Rewind
Attached is our monthly IPO Rewind report. This report identifies a select group of IPOs or spin-offs that have priced in the last two years, giving them time to digest any initial volatility. Our selected ideas display positive fundamental trends with strong top- and bottom-line consensus estimates, and IPO Rewind provides an efficient way to review these ideas that we believe warrant attention.
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV gained 2.3%, rallying for the second straight week from oversold levels, but now set to test key resistance at its 200-DMA
($147.61) followed by its 50-DMA ($149.55). Near-term support is at its 21-DMA ($146.32). Its RS line remains near lows, still
warranting an underweight sector positioning.
Market View
The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained ~1% for the week after holding above support at their rising 10-and-21 DMA (5,932, 18,922). The distribution day count remains at five and one, respectively, however two days expire on the S&P 500 during the middle of next week.
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV gained 1.6% last week, after falling over 5% the week prior. The sector is attempting to hold support near ~$142, despite still
facing multiple levels of moving average resistance including the 21-DMA ($146.21; +1.4%) followed by the 200-DMA ($147.55;
+2.3%). Its RS line is now at the lowest levels since 2008, still warranting an underweight sector positioning. We continue to expect
choppy trendless action in the sector over the next few weeks.
Market View
The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. This week, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq closed about 1.7% higher. Indices have immediate support at their 21-DMA (5,895/18,825), ~1% below current levels. Next support is at their rising 50-DMA (5,810/18,428), ~2–3% below current levels. The distribution day count remains at six and one, respectively, with one set to expire on the S&P 500 in the coming week.