XLV moved back into new highs last week after a quick tag of 21-DMA support Wednesday. After a slight dip a week ago,its RS line moved back up following strong gains on Thursday.
Author: Raj Gupta
Market View
The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq made new all-time highs for a sec-
ond straight week, closing above 10- and 21-DMA support while also avoiding distribution. The overall trend
remains constructive, though the S&P 500 is now approaching its upper channel line which has risen above
4,600. The distribution day count stands at one and two, respectively, with one day expiring on the Nasdaq next
week.
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV remains within 2% of all-time highs holding above its 21-DMA after pulling back slightly last week. The relative
strength line versus the S&P 500 has pulled in following strong gains in the broader market. Leading ideas mostly remain extended, though a handful are providing add points on pullbacks to the 21-DMA, while others are beginning to setup. We would remain overweight on Health Care.
Market View
The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are trading at or near all-time
highs with leadership expanding across multiple sectors and market caps. Support is at the rising 10- and- 21-
DMA ( S&P 500: 4,469, Nasdaq: 14,809). The distribution day count stands at three and two, respectively, with
two expiring on the S&P 500 next week.
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
Over the last five sessions, Commercial Services (CRVL), Products (ALC), and Diversified Healthcare (ABT)
led, while Generic Drugs (ABSI), Biotech (FATE), and Long-term Care (OSH) lagged. Hospitals, Diversified
Healthcare, Pharmaceuticals, and Systems/Equipment remain top-ranked industry groups. Biotech, Generic
Drugs, Long-term Care, and Outpatient Care are trading below 50- and 200-DMA.
Market View
The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq pulled back to their respective 50-
DMA before finding support and closing within the upper half of their weekly range. Support below the 50-DMA
is ~4,233 on the S&P 500 and ~14,200 on the Nasdaq. Despite adding a distribution day on Tuesday, the
overall count declined to three and two, respectively, with no expiration next week.
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
Over the last five sessions, Generic Drugs ( OGN ), Diversified Healthcare ( GSK ), and Pharmaceuticals ( PFE ) led, while
Hospitals ( LFST ), Services ( NVTA ), and Long-term Care ( OSH ) lagged. Hospitals, Diversified Healthcare,
Pharmaceuticals, and Systems/Equipment remain top-ranked industry groups. Biotech, Long-term Care, Services, and
Outpatient Care are trading below 50- and 200-DMA.
IPO Rewind
Winners (annualized gain of 30% or greater)
• Less than half the median market cap at IPO and clearly better Day 1 performance.
• Revenue growth of ~40% three consecutive years (1 year prior to IPO, year of IPO, and year after IPO).
• Most still losing money as they IPO, but more make progress toward profits.
Losers (annualized loss of 20% or greater)
• Clearly larger IPOs, not as good Day 1 performance.
• Good revenue growth year before IPO and year of IPO (although sharply lagging winners), but big dropoff in revenue growth year after IPO.
• Similar % losing money, but difference with that no progress in the group made over three years.
Market View
U.S. Market
The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 is trending into all-time highs, while the Nasdaq
continues to consolidate within 1% of a new high and above 21-DMA support. Distribution has mostly been
avoided over the last two weeks, with the count now standing at four each, with two set to expire on the S&P 500
and three on the Nasdaq next week.
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV remains within 1% of all-time highs after a small pullback to its 10-DMA to close last week. The majority of big cap constituents are holding near highs with only a select few reacting negatively to earnings. The RS line pulled back slightly, but is still holding a recent uptrend.
Currently, most ideas have become extended from ideal entry points. We recommend holding high RS ideas that are not abnormally extended versus short- and long-term moving averages versus how they typically trade. We will be looking for ideas to consolidate over the coming weeks to provide alternative entry points