XLV rallied for a second straight week and now faces resistance at its declining 50-DMA ($132.91). Its RS line continues to rise as bigger cap constituents across Managed Care and Pharma remain under accumulation. We will be looking for the index to regain and hold above the 50-DMA this week. Should it reverse, look for support at the rising 10- 21- or 200-DMA, all of which are just below current prices.
Author: Raj Gupta
Market View
The U.S. market remains in a Rally Attempt. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq bounced into resistance at their declining 21-
DMA (S&P 500: 4,394; Nasdaq: 13,756) before pulling back for the week. Price action continues to be volatile however the
Rally Attempt status remains once indices hold above February 24th lows (S&P 500: 4,288; Nasdaq: 13,473). While in a
Rally Attempt, the market status moves to a Confirmed Uptrend
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
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diversification.
Market View
The U.S. market is in a Downtrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq undercut January lows before reversing sharply higher
to close a volatile shortened week. Both are now two days off recent lows and still below near-term resistance at their
respective 21-DMA (S&P 500: 4,423; Nasdaq: 13,881) before both the 50 – and 200-DMA. The market status will shift to
Rally Attempt Monday should recent lows hold at which point a second follow-through day will need to occur before
moving back to Confirmed Uptrend
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV fell another 2% last week, moving further below its 200-DMA and now set to test support at ~$124.50. This level held
in October and again in January. Near-term moving averages are rolling over and may act as resistance before the 200-
DMA ($130.80). The 21-DMA is currently trading at $131.10.
Market View
The U.S. market is in an Uptrend Under Pressure. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq reversed from 21-DMA resistance,
closing near the lows of the week and adding additional distribution. There is no clear level of support until January lows
(S&P 500: 4,222; Nasdaq: 13,094). The distribution day count increased to four and five, respectively
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV declined 1.5% last week, reversing from 50-DMA resistance to close narrowly below its 200-DMA Friday. The next
support level should this not instantly reverse higher is ~$124.50.
Market View
The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The market status will shift to Uptrend Under Pressure should either index close below the follow-through day lows (S&P 500: 4,414; Nasdaq: 13,767). Thus far, there are multiple indications that this rally may fail, given there has been no progress above key moving-average resistance and multiple distribution days occurring within just two weeks of the follow-though. Distribution now stands at two and three, respectively.
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV rallied 1.4%, building on last week’s reversal before finding resistance at its 50-DMA ($134.28) to close the week. We
will be looking for the index to regain and settle above that level in the coming weeks. To remain constructive, the 200-
DMA ($130.39) should hold as support.
Market View
The U.S. market is in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq staged a day six follow-through on Monday, jumping 1.9% and 3.4%,
respectively, in higher day/day volume. Despite a volatile week, each index closed above Monday’s lows (S&P 500: 4,414; Nasdaq: 13,767) with
no distribution, keeping the follow-through day intact. The S&P 500 now faces resistance at its declining 50-DMA (4,619), while the Nasdaq is
still trading 13% off highs and below 200-DMA resistance (14,735).
