Hansoh Pharma

Key points from this report:

 

  • Buy Hansoh Pharmaceutical. The stock is building the right side of a 29-week consolidation in good volume with a pivot of HKD 40.90.
  • New drugs included in reimbursement list. On December 28, Hansoh’s three newly launched drugs were included in China’s National Drug Reimbursement List.
  • Rich pipeline. During H1, Hansoh obtained clinical approvals of 10 drugs and filed marketing applications for an additional 10 drugs.
  • Leadership position in China’s psychotropic market. Hansoh is China’s largest psychotropic pharmaceutical company in terms of revenue, with a market share of ~9%.
  • Next catalyst: The company is expected to announce 2020 results in March. Consensus expects 16% y/y revenue growth and 9% y/y EPS growth in 2020. Consensus expects 25%+ revenue and earnings growth in 2021.

Market View

The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed the year at all-time highs
and above all major moving averages with limited distribution. Near-term support remains the rising 10- and
21-DMA (S&P 500: 3,689; Nasdaq: 12,612). The distribution day count stands at four and two, respectively,
with one day expiring on the S&P 500 next week.

Market View

The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq continue to display constructive
technical action, trading at or near all-time highs and above all major moving averages with limited distribution.
Support remains the rising 10- and 21-DMA (S&P 500: 3,668; Nasdaq: 12,492). The distribution day count
stands at five and two, respectively, with one day expiring on the S&P 500 next week.

Market View

The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq made new all-time highs this

week, continuing to trend higher off 10- and 21-DMA (S&P 500: 3,652; Nasdaq: 12,351) support. The distribu-
tion day count is mixed at six and two, respectively, though both have avoided clustering into further expiration

next week.

Market View

The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq pulled back off highs, however,
both continue to hold trend above 21-DMA support (S&P 500: 3,625; Nasdaq: 12,170) with limited distribution.
The distribution day count stands at five and four, respectively, with one day expiring on the S&P 500 and two on
the Nasdaq next week.

Richter Gedeon

Key points from this report:

 

  • Buy Richter Gedeon (RIC.HU; RICHT HB). The stock broke out from a cup-with-handle base in heavy volume.
  • Acquisition of Evra contraceptive patch. On December 3, Richter acquired outside the U.S. marketing rights of Janssen’s Evra transdermal contraceptive for $263.5M. The addition of Evra will enable the company to offer the widest selection of family planning solutions for women.
  • Vraylar- potential blockbuster, led by label expansion. The contribution of Vraylar royalty to total pharmaceutical sales increased to 19% in Q3 2020 from 13% in Q3 2019. Vraylar is on track to achieve $1B+ revenue in 2020, with peak sales expected at $1.7B. To further extend the label, Richter initiated phase 3 study for cariprazine as an adjunctive treatment in major depressive disorder (MDD) which is a $500M incremental revenue opportunity.
  • New launches in women’s healthcare in 2021–2022. Richter is expected to launch three in-license women’s healthcare products, Eselle, Relugolix, and Oteseconazol, in 2021–2022.
  • Next catalyst: Richter is expected to announce 2020 results in February. Management raised 2020 EBIT margin guidance to 19–20% from 15–16% previously.