XLV gained another 1.6% last week, outperforming the S&P 500 for a second straight week. Its RS line has rallied off lows and is now steadily rising as the ETF regained its 50-DMA. The next level of resistance is all-time highs of $137.05.
Author: Raj Gupta
Market View
The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have now both broken out to new
all-time highs. There are multiple levels of support below current prices, including the prior highs (S&P 500:
4,545; Nasdaq: 15,403) before the sharply rising 10- and 21-DMA. Distribution has mostly been avoided for
two weeks with the count at five and four, respectively, with three expiring on each next week.
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV jumped nearly 3% off support last week and is now sitting directly under 50-DMA resistance. All other sectors as well
as the major averages have been able to regain this level over the last two weeks. The RS line has turned back up on this
bounce, but still remains in a longer-term downtrend.
Market View
The U.S. market is in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 made a new all-time high Thursday showing instant
progress after regaining its 50-DMA last week. The Nasdaq also continued its push higher earlier in the week
before pulling back Friday to close ~2% off all-time high resistance of 15,403. We continue to view the 50-DMA
as a key level of short-term support, though both the 10- and 21-DMA are now crossing above that level. The
distribution day count stands at five each, with one day expiring on both at the end of next week.
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV was able to rally off logical support near the top of its prior base and rising 200-DMA. It now faces resistance at the
rolling 50-DMA. Despite the move higher, the ETF is still significantly lagging the S&P 500 and all other sectors over the
last two months. Therefore, we recommend a more selective approach within the sector.
IPO Rewind
Winners (annualized gain of 30% or greater)
• Median market cap at IPO was 65% higher than the median market cap of losers.
• Median revenue growth was 39% the year before IPO. However, it has declined to 31% and 22% in the year of IPO and year after IPO, respectively.
• A significant number are still losing money, but nearly half of them are improving toward profitability after the IPO.
Market View
The U.S. market remains in an Uptrend Under Pressure. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq regained their respective 50-DMA this week. We will be looking for each to settle above this level or push further toward highs over the next few sessions before shifting the market status back to a Confirmed Uptrend. The distribution day count stands at six and five, respectively, with one day expiring on each next week.
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV continued to underperform last week, now trading 7% off highs and 4% below 50-DMA resistance. Leadership across
Tools/Bio-processing remains under pressure following positive results from Merck’s Covid-19 anti-viral oral pill. The
majority of ideas remains on the left side of bases and have yet to find a bottom.
Market View
The U.S. market remains in an Uptrend Under Pressure. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq gapped lower to support on Monday before rallying back toward 50-DMA resistance to close the week. Both will now enter their sixth week of consolidation with no real trend yet to develop. Support remains ~4,200 and ~14,200, respectively. The distribution day count stands at six and seven, respectively, with one day set to expire on the S&P 500 and two on the Nasdaq next week.
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV continued to decline last week falling 3.5%. The ETF is now sitting on the top of its prior base at ~$126, which is now
the next level of support before the rising 200-DMA ($122.90).
The sector came under pressure following MRK’s COVID-19 therapeutic news as the majority of leading ideas are
benefiting from vaccine production. Thus far, ideas are simply forming new bases in and around their respective 50-DMA,
with few breaking down in concerning fashion.
