XLV was able to rally off logical support near the top of its prior base and rising 200-DMA. It now faces resistance at the
rolling 50-DMA. Despite the move higher, the ETF is still significantly lagging the S&P 500 and all other sectors over the
last two months. Therefore, we recommend a more selective approach within the sector.
Author: Raj Gupta
IPO Rewind
Winners (annualized gain of 30% or greater)
• Median market cap at IPO was 65% higher than the median market cap of losers.
• Median revenue growth was 39% the year before IPO. However, it has declined to 31% and 22% in the year of IPO and year after IPO, respectively.
• A significant number are still losing money, but nearly half of them are improving toward profitability after the IPO.
Market View
The U.S. market remains in an Uptrend Under Pressure. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq regained their respective 50-DMA this week. We will be looking for each to settle above this level or push further toward highs over the next few sessions before shifting the market status back to a Confirmed Uptrend. The distribution day count stands at six and five, respectively, with one day expiring on each next week.
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV continued to underperform last week, now trading 7% off highs and 4% below 50-DMA resistance. Leadership across
Tools/Bio-processing remains under pressure following positive results from Merck’s Covid-19 anti-viral oral pill. The
majority of ideas remains on the left side of bases and have yet to find a bottom.
Market View
The U.S. market remains in an Uptrend Under Pressure. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq gapped lower to support on Monday before rallying back toward 50-DMA resistance to close the week. Both will now enter their sixth week of consolidation with no real trend yet to develop. Support remains ~4,200 and ~14,200, respectively. The distribution day count stands at six and seven, respectively, with one day set to expire on the S&P 500 and two on the Nasdaq next week.
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV continued to decline last week falling 3.5%. The ETF is now sitting on the top of its prior base at ~$126, which is now
the next level of support before the rising 200-DMA ($122.90).
The sector came under pressure following MRK’s COVID-19 therapeutic news as the majority of leading ideas are
benefiting from vaccine production. Thus far, ideas are simply forming new bases in and around their respective 50-DMA,
with few breaking down in concerning fashion.
Market View
The U.S. market remains in an Uptrend Under Pressure. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq gapped down back below their respective 50-DMA Tuesday and are now trading around their respective 100-DMA after staging upside reversals Friday. Both will now enter their fifth week of consolidation with support at ~4,200 and 14,200, respectively, and resistance at a flattening 50-DMA (S&P 500: 4,443; Nasdaq: 14,909). The distribution day count increased sharply to five and seven, respectively, with no expiration next week.
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV gapped down below its 50-DMA last Monday, before rallying back to that level by week’s end. The 50-DMA ($133.20)
is now acting as near-term resistance as XLV enters its fourth week of building a new base.
The majority of big cap ideas within the sector have pulled into levels of logical support mostly in and around 50-DMAs.
Remain patient, focus on ideas rallying back to new highs as they will likely lead if the broader market is able to settle and
push higher in the coming days/weeks.
Market View
The U.S. market is in an Uptrend Under Pressure. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq broke below their respective 50-
DMA (S&P 500: 4,440; Nasdaq: 14,900) Monday before retracing the entirety of the move to close the week.
We will now be looking for both indices to settle above this moving average or push further higher in the coming
days before shifting the market status back to Confirmed Uptrend. The distribution day count remains low at two
and three, respectively, with no expiration next week.
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
XLV traded relatively flat for the week, pulling back just slightly below its 50-DMA. Overall action is orderly, however, if
weakness persists, we believe the next level of support is ~$129, which may coincide with a rising 100-DMA ($128.49
(-3.3%)).
