Carl Zeiss Meditec

Key points from this report:

 

  • Buy Carl Zeiss Meditec. The stock is on the right side of a new base with a pivot of €140.5. We recommend accumulating shares in anticipation of a breakout.
  • Business approaching pre-COVID levels. This is a reopening play. The APAC region is leading the way in the recovery with China and South Korea being key growth markets. Given the mass vaccinations expected this year, elective surgery volume is expected to improve.
  • Leader in refractive laser surgery. Carl Zeiss has 25%+ market share in the refractive laser eye surgery market. The global market for refractive surgery is estimated to be $1B with a 6-7% CAGR. The company is growing by low-double digits, driven by its superior procedure SMILE.
  • Total addressable market worth $12B. The company provides the most comprehensive diagnostic and surgical portfolio in eye care, ranging from routine diagnostic, retinal imaging, biometry to refractive laser surgery, surgical microscopy, and intraocular lenses. Surgical ophthalmology is the largest market at $8.5B, growing by mid-single digits.

Straumann Holding

Key points from this report:

 

  • Buy Straumann. The stock is breaking out of a five-week flat base into new highs.
  • Reopening play; favorable comps. The company reported 8% organic growth in H2 2020, recovering sharply from the pandemic. The company now expects double-digit growth across all regions in Q1. With easy comps in Q2, it is on track to report 30%+ revenue growth in H1.
  • Initial 2021 guidance looks conservative. Based on positive business progress and performance in H2 2020, management guided for high-single-digit organic revenue growth in 2021 and expects improvement in profitability over 2020. This looks conservative given the company and peer’s commentary regarding the rebound in 2021.
  • Leadership in the $4B dental implant market. Straumann is the leader in the segment with 27% share, up from 26% in 2019, and ahead of its peers Envista (NVST) and Dentsply Sirona (XRAY) at 17% and 11%, respectively. The company also announced geographic expansion in China to focus on the fast growing non-premium segment.
  • Next Catalyst: The company will host its AGM on April 9 and will announce Q1 results on April 29.

Ambu

Key points from this report:

 

  • Add to positions. The stock is on the right side of a stage-two base with good overall volume trends: A/D Rating A- and Up/Down Volume ratio of 1.7.
  • Positive news: On April 1, the FDA announced that it is investigating numerous medical device reports (MDRs) describing patient infections and other possible contamination issues associated with reprocessing urological endoscopes. This is positive for Ambu’s single-use endoscopies.
  • $2.5B global market opportunity: Ambu estimates that the single-use endoscopy market will reach $2.5B by 2024 from $500M in 2020. The company aims to sell 1.3M–1.4M (+24% y/y) units of single-use endoscopes in FY21 (consensus: 1.36M), driven by pulmonary, ENT, urology, and GI businesses. In Q1 FY21, the company sold 370K (+106% y/y) units of endoscopes.

O’Neil Health Care Weekly

XLV’s RS line (vs S&P 500) fell back to a seven-year low Friday following strong gains in the broader market.
The ETF continues to underperform as the market strengthens and only goes through short spurts of
outperformance when the overall market weakens.

Market View

The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 moved back into all-time highs this week, while the Nasdaq narrowly regained its 50-DMA. The Nasdaq now faces resistance at ~13,600, with support still at the rising 100-DMA (12,959). The distribution day count declined this week, now standing at four on the S&P 500 and six on the Nasdaq with multiple additional days also set to expire next week.

 

Market View

The U.S. market is in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq held support along their respective 50-
and 100-DMA this week. Despite a strong rally before the close Friday, the Nasdaq still faces multiple layers of

resistance including the 50-DMA at ~13,400 before price resistance at ~13,600. The distribution day count re-
mains elevated at six and seven, respectively, however, two expire on each next week due to time.

O’Neil Health Care Weekly

XLV’s RS line ( vs S&P 500 ) rose this past week, but remains in a long-term downtrend, trading near the lowest
levels since 2013. Over the last five sessions, Generic Drugs ( TEVA ), Wholesale Drugs ( OMI ), Research Equipment ( OCDX ),
and Managed Care ( UNH ) led, while Commercial Services ( RCM ), Diversified ( LLY ), Biotech ( TBIO ), and
Equipment ( MASI ) lagged.

Market View

The U.S. market is in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 pulled back to 21-DMA support after reaching an all-
time high earlier in the week. The Nasdaq closed back below its 50-DMA after finding strong resistance at

~13,600. Support is now at ~13,000, before the rising 100-DMA. The distribution day count stands at six a
piece, with one expiring on each next week.

Global Laggards

Highlighted Charts

 

U.S.: M A G Silver Corp (MAG), Chemed Corporation (CHE), T A L Education (TAL), Mccormick & Co. (MKC), Kimberly Clark Corp (KMB), Lending Tree (TREE), Mersana Therapeutics (MRSN), New Relic (NEWR).

 

Developed: Brambles (BXB.AU; BXB AU), Berkeley Group (BKG.GB; BKG LN), Ubisoft Entertainment (UBI.FR; UBI FP), Kerry Group (KRZ.IE; KYG ID), Ampol (ALD.AU; ALD AU), Amp (AMP.AU; AMP AU), Ono Pharma (PS@N.JP; 4528 JP), Just Eat (TKWY.NL; TKWY NA), Ams (AMS.CH; AMS SW), Gungho Online Entertainment (GHOE.JP; 3765 JP), Scout24 (G24X.DE; G24 GR).

 

Emerging: Godrej Consumer Product (GCD.IN; GCPL IN), Türkiye Vakiflar Bankasi (TVB.TR; VAKBN TI), Ace hardware Indonesia (ACE.ID; ACES IJ), Asmedia Technology (ASM.TW; 5269 TT).