The U.S. market has been moved to an Uptrend Under Pressure. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq gapped down on Thursday, closing at the lows of the day and down more than 5% each in heavy volume. The S&P 500 distribution day count increased to five days in the last five weeks, with three in six sessions. The Nasdaq count remains relatively low at three days. The S&P 500 is testing support at ~3,000, while the Nasdaq is trading at its 21-DMA. The next logical level of support should these levels break is the sharply rising 50-DMA (S&P 500: 2,903; Nasdaq: 8,922).
All 11 sectors closed down for the week, led lower by long-term lagging sectors, Transportation, Capital Equipment, and Energy, which fell 8% or more. Long-term leading sectors, Retail and Technology, held up best, remaining above both their respective 50- and 200-DMA. After multiple sectors reversed lower off their respective 200-DMA this week, we will now be looking for each to find support at their respective rising 50-DMA, which is 4–6% below current levels. Industry groups holding up best over the last week include Gaming Software, Desktop Software, Internet, Telecom, Leisure Products, and Mining. 82% of S&P 500 stocks are trading above their respective 50-DMA and 37% are now trading above their respective 200-DMA. This is down from 98% and 57%, respectively, last week.
We recommend a near-term cautious approach given Thursday’s severe out of character price break that resulted in a massive spike in the VIX and increase in distribution. We expect indices to consolidate very sharp gains over the next several days to weeks and would advise a patient approach to increasing risk until volatility subsides and indices and leading ideas begin to firm. As indices chop, clues will come in the form of relative strength. Focus on high quality ideas that tighten up around logical levels of support, as these ideas will be ready to make their next run if and when the market begins to move back toward highs.