Author: Raj Gupta
Market View
The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq continue to display constructive
technical action, trading at or near all-time highs and above all major moving averages with limited distribution.
Support remains the rising 10- and 21-DMA (S&P 500: 3,668; Nasdaq: 12,492). The distribution day count
stands at five and two, respectively, with one day expiring on the S&P 500 next week.
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
Health Care (XLV) continues to hold above its 21-DMA and near all-time highs. The sector is trading flat versus
the S&P 500 over the past month.
Market View
The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq made new all-time highs this
week, continuing to trend higher off 10- and 21-DMA (S&P 500: 3,652; Nasdaq: 12,351) support. The distribu-
tion day count is mixed at six and two, respectively, though both have avoided clustering into further expiration
next week.
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
Market View
The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq pulled back off highs, however,
both continue to hold trend above 21-DMA support (S&P 500: 3,625; Nasdaq: 12,170) with limited distribution.
The distribution day count stands at five and four, respectively, with one day expiring on the S&P 500 and two on
the Nasdaq next week.
Richter Gedeon
Key points from this report:
- Buy Richter Gedeon (RIC.HU; RICHT HB). The stock broke out from a cup-with-handle base in heavy volume.
- Acquisition of Evra contraceptive patch. On December 3, Richter acquired outside the U.S. marketing rights of Janssen’s Evra transdermal contraceptive for $263.5M. The addition of Evra will enable the company to offer the widest selection of family planning solutions for women.
- Vraylar- potential blockbuster, led by label expansion. The contribution of Vraylar royalty to total pharmaceutical sales increased to 19% in Q3 2020 from 13% in Q3 2019. Vraylar is on track to achieve $1B+ revenue in 2020, with peak sales expected at $1.7B. To further extend the label, Richter initiated phase 3 study for cariprazine as an adjunctive treatment in major depressive disorder (MDD) which is a $500M incremental revenue opportunity.
- New launches in women’s healthcare in 2021–2022. Richter is expected to launch three in-license women’s healthcare products, Eselle, Relugolix, and Oteseconazol, in 2021–2022.
- Next catalyst: Richter is expected to announce 2020 results in February. Management raised 2020 EBIT margin guidance to 19–20% from 15–16% previously.
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
Health Care (XLV) held support along its 21-DMA and rallied back towards all-time highs last week. The sector
gained 2.8% outperforming the broader market but remains flat versus the S&P 500 over the trailing two
weeks.
Market View
U.S. Market
The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are trending into new all-time
highs after clearing out from consolidation this week. Near-term support for both indices remains this rising 10-
DMA (S&P 500: 3,642; Nasdaq: 12,215). The distribution day count declined, falling to four and three, respec-
tively, with no further expiration next week.
O’Neil Health Care Weekly
Health Care (XLV) broke into new highs last month and has since pulled back to its 21-DMA in relatively low
volume. Though intact on an absolute basis, the sector is significantly underperforming the S&P 500 since
breaking into new highs.
