O’Neil Health Care Weekly

XLV gained 148bps last week, regaining its 50-DMA ($153.49). Near-term resistance is $157.09 followed by a new intraday high of $159.64. Its RS line remains near lows, warranting an underweight sector positioning.

 

Last week, the Medical Diversified group led as LLY regained its 50-DMA and is now on the right side of a base. Other gains largely came from lagging areas as a 4% rally in MCK led to decent gains from Medical Distribution and a 7% rally in HUM helped Managed Care rally off recent lows. Overall, the top ranked industry groups in Health Care (Hospitals, Long-term Care, Biotech, Products) remain unchanged for the last few months.

Market View

The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq rose 1.1% apiece on the week. The S&P 500 is
trading at all-time highs, while the Nasdaq is 2% off highs. Look for support at their rising 21-DMA (5,711/17,985) to maintain the
immediate positive trend. The distribution day count remains at one and three, respectively

IPO Rewind

Attached is our monthly IPO Rewind report. This report identifies a select group of IPOs or spin-offs that have priced in the last two years, giving them time to digest any initial volatility. Our selected ideas display positive fundamental trends with strong top- and bottom-line consensus estimates, and IPO Rewind provides an efficient way to review these ideas that we believe warrant attention.

O’Neil Health Care Weekly

XLV declined 90 bps last week, falling for a third straight week and breaking below its 50-DMA ($153.25). The next level of support is
the 100-DMA ($149.66) followed by a prior pivot of $148.27. Its RS line continues to rapidly decline, warranting an equal – to –
underweight sector positioning. Despite being short-term oversold, Health Care is lagging with few ideas setup technically to buy.

Market View

The U.S. market is in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq traded lower for most of the week before closing strong on Friday to each end with a slight weekly gain. Support for both indices is at their respective 21-DMA (5,673; 17,840). The distribution day count stands at zero and two, respectively.

Market View

The U.S. market is in a Confirmed Uptrend. Indices continue to consolidate recent gains as the S&P 500 is trading at all-time highs while the Nasdaq is only 3% off its high. The first level of support for both indices is at the 10-DMA (5,696, 17,920) followed by the rising 21-DMA (5,614 ,17,573) . The distribution day count stands at zero and one, respectively.

Market View

The U.S. market has been upgraded to a Confirmed Uptrend from a Rally Attempt. The S&P 500 was up 1.4% for the week, staging a Day 9 follow-through day on Thursday and moving into all-time highs. The Nasdaq rose 1.5% for the week but narrowly missed a follow-through day on Thursday, as volume was a bit lower than the prior day. It is testing the midpoint of a 10-week range (18,018) and remains about 4% off all-time highs. The Nasdaq did pick up a Distribution Day on Friday while the S&P 500 avoided one. Rising 21-DMA support for each index is 2-2.5% below (5,585/17,515).