Health Care Conference

Key points from this report:

  • Ideas are showing positive technical trends, holding above key price and/or moving average support.
  • Ideas also have positive fundamental ratings and rankings and/or accelerating annual EPS growth.
  • Included are 13 annotated charts.

Market View

The U.S. market remains in an Uptrend Under Pressure. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq declined 1.9% and 2.3%,
respectively, this week. The S&P 500 fell back below the 50-DMA (5,952) after a brief retake, and is testing support at the
100-DMA (5,820). The Nasdaq closed below its 50-DMA (19,319) for the first time since mid-September 2024, leaving
next support around the top of the prior base (18,670).

O’Neil Health Care Weekly

XLV closed the week flat, holding support at ~$136. The sector now faces near-term resistance at its rolling 21-DMA ($140.16),
followed by its sharply falling 50-DMA ($144). Though the index has steadied in recent weeks, it remains 13% off highs with an RS
line near lows, still warranting an underweight sector positioning.

Market View

The U.S. market remains in an Uptrend Under Pressure. This weekthe S&P 500 and Nasdaq declined 0.5% a piece despite a strong close on  Friday. The S&P 500 has immediate support at its 100-DMA (5,804; -2%), while it is testing the first level of resistance at its 50-DMA (5,945). The Nasdaq bounced from support at its 50-DMA (19,236), and is testing resistance at its 21-DMA(19,578). The distribution day count remains elevated at six and seven, respectively.

O’Neil Health Care Weekly

XLV rallied just 69bps last week, after falling over 6% during the prior three weeks. The sector is sitting above longer-term support
between $135-$138, despite still facing multiple levels of resistance including the falling 21-DMA ($141.20). Its RS line remains
near lows, still warranting an underweight sector positioning.

Market View

The U.S. market remains in an Uptrend Under Pressure. Indices closed the week with a small gain despite pulling back on Friday. The S&P 500 is testing support at its 50-DMA (5,941) while the Nasdaq is testing its 21-DMA (19,643) followed by its 50-DMA (19,160) which is ~3% lower. The distribution day count stands at three and four on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, respectively.

O’Neil Health Care Weekly

XLV fell over 2% for a third straight week and is now testing longer-term support between $135 to $138. Though XLV is again oversold,
it is trading below all moving averages and multiple layers of price resistance. Its first test, should it bounce, will be near-term
resistance at the falling 21-DMA ($142.15). Overall, its RS line remains at multi-year lows, still warranting an underweight sector
positioning. XLV is down 10.4% this quarter, its worst since March 2020 (Covid). The sector is now up just 1.2% for the year vs 24%
for SPY and 26% for QQQ.

Market View

The U.S. market remains in an Uptrend Under Pressure. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were down 2.0% and 1.8%,
respectively, this week. The S&P 500 breached its 21-DMA and then its 50-DMA for the first time in three months. It then
retook and closed slightly above the 50-DMA (5,927). Next support would be around 3% lower at the 100-DMA (5,752).
The Nasdaq breached its 21-DMA but held well above the 50-DMA. It retook and closed above the 21-DMA and 3% above
the 50-DMA (19,040). The distribution day count on each index stands at three and four, after one expired on the S&P 500
after Friday’s close.

O’Neil Health Care Weekly

XLV fell over 2% for a second straight week and is now set to test longer-term support between $138 to $140. Near-term resistance is
the falling 21-DMA ($144.73). Its RS line has fallen to another new low, still warranting an underweight sector positioning. XLV is
down 8.5% this quarter and now at risk of wiping out all YTD gains (+3.3%).

Market View

The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. Price action was mixed across indices for the week, as the S&P 500 pulled back 65 bps while the Nasdaq rose 30 bps. Support for both indices is at the rising 10-and 21-DMA (6,012,19,455). The distribution day count stands at three on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq with one day expiring on each next week.

 

Over the last five sessions, Consumer Cyclical rose 1.1% while nine other sectors declined led lower by Basic Material (-3%) followed by four sectors – Health Care, Capital Equipment, Utility, and Energy – falling 2% or more.